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£32bn of property debt to refinance in the UK in 2010? Pah, forget about it, small beer, there's an average of €155bn of debt to roll over per year for the next three years, according to CBRE's European Commercial Real Estate Debt ViewPoint. And with many banks having lent across borders during the boom years, the problem can't be viewed on a parochial basis. Loans needing to be refinanced in Poland have an effect on the UK market, if the capital needed to roll them is then unavailable for UK borrowers. Savills might have pointed to an increased number of lenders looking at the UK market, but general reduced levels of liquidity will persist across the Continent for several years yet.

Of the €970bn of debt secured against European real estate, €207bn is severely distressed according to CBRE. Secured against secondary property and at high levels of leverage, this debt is seriously underwater. Regulators last week warned that banks are likely to face continued stress due to losses on commercial property loans, and it is this €207bn slug that will cause the problems. CBRE said that banks are unlikely to instigate masses of forced sales, largely as a result of government intervention. Good news if you're a borrower trying to hang on to your assets. Bad news if you're one of the players outlined in another CBRE report, their investor survey, that thinks 2010 is the ideal time to buy.

CB Richard Ellis has released its Central London Office markets forecast for January today - see the story on EGi.
The highlights include an expected 20% rise in prime City rents by the end of this year to more than £50 per sq ft.
The agent said this would be driven by a shortage of new office space, with completions of new office developments to plummet in the next two years to their lowest level in nearly three decades.

CBRE's key points include:
• Although the latest ONS revisions for GDP suggest that the UK remained in recession in Q3, with output declining by 0.2%, economic growth is widely expected to have returned in the fourth quarter. The service sector grew by 0.1% between September and October, and Finance & Business services expanded at a rate of 0.2% over the same period, according to National Statistics.

• Following government support and Bank of England asset purchases, the sharp downturn in asset prices of 2007-08 has turned around since last spring. More positive sentiment has lifted financial markets, with the FTSE All Share up by around 43% since its March lows, while the UK commercial property market has followed, with a resurgence in investor demand. The Central London office market has been a major beneficiary, with the CB Richard Ellis Monthly Index recording capital growth of 12.5% for Central London offices since June.

King Sturge today kicked off the New Year with predictions for the property market for 2010 and beyond.
The company's Property Predictions 2010 report says this year will produce the best returns in four years, but capital values could collapse again in 2012.
As for its outlook, King Sturge believes:
- 2010 will produce an All Property total return of 12.8%, with capital values climbing 5%, but rents falling 4%.
- Rents will fall throughout the UK and in most major European markets until 2012.
- The gap between the office markets in London and the rest of the country will widen, with the capital seeing a reversal of fortune, leading the office market recovery in 2010.
- Prime City rents are expected to climb 10.5% this year to £47.50 per sq ft, and 7.6% in the West End to £70 per sq ft.
- Canary Wharf is tipped as London's hotspot for the office market with occupancy rates predicted to fall from their current levels of 13% to 7%, and perhaps even less.
- The current investment "bubble" for prime real estate is likely to soften in the first quarter, and secondary stock will continue to languish.
- Bank finance will slowly become increasingly available, but with £32.6bn of debt due for redemption this year, refinancing this will prove impossible without a continuation of the "pretend and extend" policy the banks are exercising.
- Not wishing to write off significant debts to their balance sheets, toleration of all but the most serious breaches will be necessary, extending existing loan agreements.

Colliers has today warned that the strength of the current rally in UK commercial property prices could lead to a second correction.
The agent has predicted the ongoing recovery in prices could erase the losses suffered in the first half of this year.
It is now expecting positive total returns for 2009 of 0.4%, up from -7.3% previously estimated.
JP Morgan analyst Harm Meijer said the 0.4% total return forecast implies around 7% capital growth for the second half of 2009 and "should not come as a surprise to the market".

I thought it might be enlightening to undertake a quick comparison of JLL and CBRE's third quarter results, which were released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively - in spite of the fact that, whenever you try and undertake this exercise, the flaks for both sides ring up in hurry and point out how, in fact, if you look at it like this, their team is actually far better than the other.

One key similarity was the fact that Colin Dyer, chief executive of JLL, and Brett White, chief executive of CBRE, said they saw signs of recovery in most territories across the globe. The picture was far from uncertain, they said, and America could lag behind Europe and Asia, as these markets were further along in terms of the property sector's recovery. But what do the raw numbers say?

Following third quarter results today, Jones Lang LaSalle's shares dropped 7% to $47.10, mainly because  earnings per share of $0.46 were lower than the $0.58 predicted by analysts (although the $0.61 JLL made when one-offs were stripped out would have been a beat).

Nonetheless, JMP Securities' Will Marks has kept his outperform rating on the company, and maintains a share price target of $57. Here's why:

After a good 3Q, we would continue to buy JLL shares, with our price target at $57; maintain Market Outperform rating.  JLL is trading at its historical average forward multiple (15x) yet on earnings that should show considerable growth over time, with upside as sales, leasing, and asset management businesses recover and as JLL continues to grow its management services segment.  Conversations with real estate leasing and sales brokers give us comfort with our outlook.  Our 2010 EPS estimate of $3.35 compares to 2007 peak EPS of $6.77, and the $9.00 "next peak" figure published in our August 31 peak-to-peak analysis report. 

Well, one of them anyway. In the midst of losses for almost all of the big UK and global agency firms (and the leader of the pack, Savills, only making a slender £100,000 prodfit), things are looking bright for Jones Lang LaSalle, according to analyst Will Marks at JMP Securities.

In a note this week, Marks reiterates his market outperform rating on JLL, slapping a price target of $57 on the shares (18% higher than their current price) and indicating that when the market comes out of its current trough the company should prosper.