JP Morgan has today issued a new note on the listed real estate sector saying it believes property currently is neither a strong buy, nor a strong sell.
Analyst Harm Meijer also includes his 10 "must-know" facts about commercial property for 2010.
"As is widely known, a lengthy degearing process and potential withdrawal of stimuli is upon us. In this note, which is a follow-up on 10 Forecasts for 2010 (9 Dec 2009), we focus instead on the bright side and present thought-provoking facts on commercial real estate. Our view: the listed sector is not a strong buy, nor a strong sell, but offers a solid 12 month expected total return of 10% and stocks with different investment themes: Big Yellow (preferred recovery play), British Land (very predictable cash flow and acquisition power), VastNed Retail (8% div yield) and alstria (for those concerned by sovereign credit risk) . The 10 must-know facts:
• 1. European property stocks are still 55% below their 2007 peak (UK: 61%) vs. European equities 24% (FTSE 100: 11%).
• 2. Commercial property values in the UK are still 41% below their Jun-07 peak and in real terms 65% lower compared to 1955.
• 3. Commercial real estate in the UK has severely underperformed residential: total return of 10% pa vs 14% since 1972, while it rose 46% less in value over the (post dotcom) period 2001-04.
• 4. Property stocks have not bounced as strongly as they did after other severe downturns (currently 102% vs. 70s: 221% and 90s: 185%).
• 5. In our view, it is time to close the underperformance gap with ungeared direct property (since end 1970), but stock picking is important as the listed sector needs to work on its 'cycle timing', in particular largecaps. A number of smaller stocks however, like Great Portland and Helical bar, have a solid long-term track record.
• 6. Yield spreads are close to all time highs: vs. LIBOR almost 7%, vs. 10 year government bond yield 3.2% and vs. corporate BBB 1.5%.
• 7. Lease length of 6.2yrs (UK 8.6yrs), quality assets and inflation hedging characteristics should support income.
• 8. The UK commercial property market is returning from negative equity. There is around £250bn of lending outstanding of which around £35bn will mature in 2010. Property companies have unused credit lines at 35-60bp margin to take advantage of this.
• 9. Property investment volumes are picking up and, in our view, have some way to go (currently 32% below average).
• 10. Share price volatility is close to all-time high (beta of 1 vs. long-term average of 0.55), but we see it falling (later on) in 2010."