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Brokers' thoughts on Liberty's split

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Liberty International today announced details of its proposed demerger, which will see the company split into two specialist retail companies.
Liberty will spin off its UK shopping centres, US business and Indian investments into a new REIT, Capital Shopping Centres.
The company also announced its full year results for the second half.
Here's what the brokers think of the company's news:

JPMorgan
Liberty Int: Weaker-than-expected results and demerger confirmed. Liberty Int reported an Adj NAV of 464p vs. JPMe 503p (-7.7%), Adj EPS of 18.3p vs. 17.6p and dividend of 16.5p (vs. JPMe 6.5p). Management makes a case for future yield compression by pointing to the yield spread. We see future valuation gains indeed, but the 5.7% initial yield on UK shopping centres (purchasers' costs included) does not strike us as very attractive. Separately, the company confirmed the demerger plans today and while we were unable to find costs associated with this, the proposal makes sense in our view. Overall: we believe potential valuation gains and merger benefits are largely priced in: UW. Risks to our view are better than expected capital growth and retail sales.

BL appointment completes search for board members

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British Land announced today it has appointed Charles Maudsley as head of its £5.3bn retail business in the UK and Europe.

Last year, he was appointed as executive director for business expansion and will continue in this role.

BL chief executive, Chris Grigg, said, "I am delighted that Charles Maudsley is taking Board level responsibility for our largest single business. He is ideally suited to the challenge of taking our Retail business to the next level. His property experience and expertise will both complement and help further develop the deep pool of retail talent which we have here at British Land."

In an analyst note today, Harm Meijer from JPMorgan said: "We believe the appointment completes British Land's Board and that the company is not actively looking for additional Board members (anymore)."

 

This column appeared in yesterday's Sunday Times warning investors to "avoid" REITs.

"This is a sector that has rallied too far too fast and eventually the underlying weakness will shine through," it says.  

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article7043951.ece

 

SEGRO this morning issued its full year results reporting an increase in vacancies across the portfolio.
The company also issued a cautious statement on the prospects for the UK industrial sector.
Vacancy rates rose from 10.9% at 30 June 2009 to 13.5% at 31 December, partly due to SEGRO's acquisition of rival Brixton.
JPMorgan analyst Osmaan Malik gave his review of the company's results, saying the outlook was in line with expectations and there was no surprise on vacancy rates.
"SEGRO reported an NAV of 362p (10% NAV discount), as the portfolio in the UK (ex-Brixton) was revalued upwards by 9.8% in 2H (+8.9% inc Brixton) - comfortably beating IPD industrial which rose 7.0% over the same period," he said.
"We believe this was partly due to reversing the underperformance in 1H.
"All eyes are on vacancy, following the acquisition of Brixton's high vacancy portfolio.
"On a like for like basis, vacancy was stable over 2H, which we anticipated, but may disappoint the market looking for a quick improvement.
"Actual vacancy increased slightly due to sales of well let assets, and the group rate stands at 13.5% inc. Brixton.
"Management's target remains the same: to reduce the Brixton vacancy from 22% currently to 15% within 3 years, which would take the group rate from 13.5% to c.12%.
"Management wants to see this then reach 10%. Management did say they see lettings momentum picking up."

Hammerson's results produce mixed broker reaction

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Brokers have had a mixed reaction to Hammerson's full year results announced today.
The company's portfolio rose in value by 6% in H2 - with an 11% rise in the UK. But, for the full year, values were down by 9% to £6.5bn.
This valuation movement led to a 13% rise in net asset value in the second half of the year to 421p a share, but an overall NAV drop of 18%.
JP Morgan analyst Harm Meijer said the H2 rise in NAV was slightly above his expectations.
"Most importantly, like-for-like rental growth, one of our key performance indicators, of +1.1% was above our estimate of 0%," he said.
"Overall, we believe these results underpin our model input and currently forecast around 16% total return for Hammerson (similar to UK largecaps in general).
"However, we reiterate our view that a lengthy de-leveraging process and rising bond yields is upon us, which means that investors do not have to enter the sector at any price.
"Our 2010 theme remains: buy on weakness, but do not chase stocks to higher levels."
On the other hand, Nomura Real Estate says its house view remains Neutral on Hammerson, with the NAV broadly in line with its expectations.

British Land reports 18% NAV hike

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British Land has today posted an 18% jump in its net asset value to 438p a share for its third quarter results. The rise was driven by recovering capital values across the property sector.
Brokers have begun analysing the figures and giving their opinions on the company's results.
JPMorgan's Harm Meijer said: "We believe today's results underpin our positive view on the company and reiterate our view that its investment case is very straightforward:
1. Stock trades at Dec-09 NAV of 438p,
2. 6% dividend yield,
3. Today's results make us very comfortable on our forecasts (our year-end NAV forecast of 464p only requires 3% capital growth),
4. 272,000 sq ft of new lettings and still 655,000 sq ft of office available,
5. £3.2bn of cash and unused credit lines at 48bp: the company sees further investment opportunities within 18 months (our view: no need to rush),
6. Income growth of 1.4%, 13 years lease length (only 7% to expire in three years), 11.2 years debt maturity and 94% occupancy,
7. Net portfolio yield of 5.8% and gross topped-up of 6.7%.
Overall, we believe this is the type of company that should appeal to investors: what you see is what you get with a potential surprise to the upside. Please see our alert, sent out separately today, for more details.

Nomura analysts Robert Duncan and Mike Prew say the following about BL:

Hussey nearer to debut fund

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So, Mike Hussey is putting a team together for his new property fund - and it seems he might have a name for the new company as well.

JP Morgan has today issued a new note on the listed real estate sector saying it believes property currently is neither a strong buy, nor a strong sell.
Analyst Harm Meijer also includes his 10 "must-know" facts about commercial property for 2010.

"As is widely known, a lengthy degearing process and potential withdrawal of stimuli is upon us. In this note, which is a follow-up on 10 Forecasts for 2010 (9 Dec 2009), we focus instead on the bright side and present thought-provoking facts on commercial real estate. Our view: the listed sector is not a strong buy, nor a strong sell, but offers a solid 12 month expected total return of 10% and stocks with different investment themes: Big Yellow (preferred recovery play), British Land (very predictable cash flow and acquisition power), VastNed Retail (8% div yield) and alstria (for those concerned by sovereign credit risk) . The 10 must-know facts:

• 1. European property stocks are still 55% below their 2007 peak (UK: 61%) vs. European equities 24% (FTSE 100: 11%).
• 2. Commercial property values in the UK are still 41% below their Jun-07 peak and in real terms 65% lower compared to 1955.
• 3. Commercial real estate in the UK has severely underperformed residential: total return of 10% pa vs 14% since 1972, while it rose 46% less in value over the (post dotcom) period 2001-04.
• 4. Property stocks have not bounced as strongly as they did after other severe downturns (currently 102% vs. 70s: 221% and 90s: 185%).
• 5. In our view, it is time to close the underperformance gap with ungeared direct property (since end 1970), but stock picking is important as the listed sector needs to work on its 'cycle timing', in particular largecaps. A number of smaller stocks however, like Great Portland and Helical bar, have a solid long-term track record.
• 6. Yield spreads are close to all time highs: vs. LIBOR almost 7%, vs. 10 year government bond yield 3.2% and vs. corporate BBB 1.5%.
• 7. Lease length of 6.2yrs (UK 8.6yrs), quality assets and inflation hedging characteristics should support income.
• 8. The UK commercial property market is returning from negative equity. There is around £250bn of lending outstanding of which around £35bn will mature in 2010. Property companies have unused credit lines at 35-60bp margin to take advantage of this.
• 9. Property investment volumes are picking up and, in our view, have some way to go (currently 32% below average).
• 10. Share price volatility is close to all-time high (beta of 1 vs. long-term average of 0.55), but we see it falling (later on) in 2010."

Top shares of 2009

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I bet you a tenner you can't guess which was the top performing listed property company of 2009?

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