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Brokers' thoughts on Liberty's split

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Liberty International today announced details of its proposed demerger, which will see the company split into two specialist retail companies.
Liberty will spin off its UK shopping centres, US business and Indian investments into a new REIT, Capital Shopping Centres.
The company also announced its full year results for the second half.
Here's what the brokers think of the company's news:

JPMorgan
Liberty Int: Weaker-than-expected results and demerger confirmed. Liberty Int reported an Adj NAV of 464p vs. JPMe 503p (-7.7%), Adj EPS of 18.3p vs. 17.6p and dividend of 16.5p (vs. JPMe 6.5p). Management makes a case for future yield compression by pointing to the yield spread. We see future valuation gains indeed, but the 5.7% initial yield on UK shopping centres (purchasers' costs included) does not strike us as very attractive. Separately, the company confirmed the demerger plans today and while we were unable to find costs associated with this, the proposal makes sense in our view. Overall: we believe potential valuation gains and merger benefits are largely priced in: UW. Risks to our view are better than expected capital growth and retail sales.

Unite Group's results weaker than expected

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Student accommodation provider Unite Group posted full year results today.

Analysts at JPMorgan have issued their opinions on the company's performance, saying the results were "weaker than expected".

"Unite reported FY09 results that were weaker than expected, with EPRA NAV of 265p, 8.6% below our forecast of 290p. Recurring profit turned positive at £0.6m (last year £5.4m loss), but was light of our £3.8m forecast. In addition, the company remains in a transition phase in which it will aim to acquire development sites and improve recurring income, and this will take some time. In this context, market expectations look too high (Bloomberg: 5 "buy" ratings, 1 "hold", no "sells"). We remain Neutral, given the 6.7% yield on the portfolio, 3-5% expected rental growth p.a. over three years, while the company has made a start in deploying its equity issue funds, securing 900 beds for delivery 2012/13," said analyst Harm Meijer.

 

SEGRO this morning issued its full year results reporting an increase in vacancies across the portfolio.
The company also issued a cautious statement on the prospects for the UK industrial sector.
Vacancy rates rose from 10.9% at 30 June 2009 to 13.5% at 31 December, partly due to SEGRO's acquisition of rival Brixton.
JPMorgan analyst Osmaan Malik gave his review of the company's results, saying the outlook was in line with expectations and there was no surprise on vacancy rates.
"SEGRO reported an NAV of 362p (10% NAV discount), as the portfolio in the UK (ex-Brixton) was revalued upwards by 9.8% in 2H (+8.9% inc Brixton) - comfortably beating IPD industrial which rose 7.0% over the same period," he said.
"We believe this was partly due to reversing the underperformance in 1H.
"All eyes are on vacancy, following the acquisition of Brixton's high vacancy portfolio.
"On a like for like basis, vacancy was stable over 2H, which we anticipated, but may disappoint the market looking for a quick improvement.
"Actual vacancy increased slightly due to sales of well let assets, and the group rate stands at 13.5% inc. Brixton.
"Management's target remains the same: to reduce the Brixton vacancy from 22% currently to 15% within 3 years, which would take the group rate from 13.5% to c.12%.
"Management wants to see this then reach 10%. Management did say they see lettings momentum picking up."

Hammerson's results produce mixed broker reaction

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Brokers have had a mixed reaction to Hammerson's full year results announced today.
The company's portfolio rose in value by 6% in H2 - with an 11% rise in the UK. But, for the full year, values were down by 9% to £6.5bn.
This valuation movement led to a 13% rise in net asset value in the second half of the year to 421p a share, but an overall NAV drop of 18%.
JP Morgan analyst Harm Meijer said the H2 rise in NAV was slightly above his expectations.
"Most importantly, like-for-like rental growth, one of our key performance indicators, of +1.1% was above our estimate of 0%," he said.
"Overall, we believe these results underpin our model input and currently forecast around 16% total return for Hammerson (similar to UK largecaps in general).
"However, we reiterate our view that a lengthy de-leveraging process and rising bond yields is upon us, which means that investors do not have to enter the sector at any price.
"Our 2010 theme remains: buy on weakness, but do not chase stocks to higher levels."
On the other hand, Nomura Real Estate says its house view remains Neutral on Hammerson, with the NAV broadly in line with its expectations.

Land Secs posts "very solid" results

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Land Securities' first half results came across as "very solid" and were in line with management's goals, according to JP Morgan.
Analyst Harm Meijer said adjusted net asset value came in at 565p versus JP Morgan's estimated of 567p.
"The NAV was highly impacted by a hit of £74.5m on cancellation of swap contracts and, interestingly, the portfolio fell 1.4% in value over the last six months outperforming British Land by 1%," said Meijer.
"As said before, the company is maintaining its view that rental growth will return first in the West End (in line with our view), while most property agents seem to bet on the City.
"As a result, the company has lined up three developments for 2012-2013.
"On acquisitions, Land Securities said that it has £500m bids outstanding. Overall: very solid set of numbers, but already priced in the share price in our view.
"While Land Securities believes that property values have turned the corner in July and will rise on a five years view, the company is not rushing out to spend its money on acquisitions.
"It will not join the current bidding contest, but remain disciplined, as better opportunities are likely to follow once banks start to work through their loan books."

JLL and CBRE - head to head

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I thought it might be enlightening to undertake a quick comparison of JLL and CBRE's third quarter results, which were released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively - in spite of the fact that, whenever you try and undertake this exercise, the flaks for both sides ring up in hurry and point out how, in fact, if you look at it like this, their team is actually far better than the other.

One key similarity was the fact that Colin Dyer, chief executive of JLL, and Brett White, chief executive of CBRE, said they saw signs of recovery in most territories across the globe. The picture was far from uncertain, they said, and America could lag behind Europe and Asia, as these markets were further along in terms of the property sector's recovery. But what do the raw numbers say?

JLL shares take a dive - but the future's bright

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Following third quarter results today, Jones Lang LaSalle's shares dropped 7% to $47.10, mainly because  earnings per share of $0.46 were lower than the $0.58 predicted by analysts (although the $0.61 JLL made when one-offs were stripped out would have been a beat).

Nonetheless, JMP Securities' Will Marks has kept his outperform rating on the company, and maintains a share price target of $57. Here's why:

After a good 3Q, we would continue to buy JLL shares, with our price target at $57; maintain Market Outperform rating.  JLL is trading at its historical average forward multiple (15x) yet on earnings that should show considerable growth over time, with upside as sales, leasing, and asset management businesses recover and as JLL continues to grow its management services segment.  Conversations with real estate leasing and sales brokers give us comfort with our outlook.  Our 2010 EPS estimate of $3.35 compares to 2007 peak EPS of $6.77, and the $9.00 "next peak" figure published in our August 31 peak-to-peak analysis report. 

Broadgate maths

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broadgate maths.jpgIf the equity in Broadgate was valued at 30 June at £195m, why would Blackstone (or anyone else) pay £150m for a 50% stake?

Update: As well as this, there are debt repayments of £91m due over the next two years to take into account, as well as significant (£100m+++) capital expenditure on refurbishment over the next five years. That is why BL would sell, even at the trough of the market, but makes it hard for potential buyers to make the numbers stack up.

Simon still loves Liberty despite $141m writedown

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US mall giant Simon Property Group reported second quarter results on Tuesday that included a $141m charge due to the fall in value of its 6.5% stake in UK shopping centre REIT Liberty International.

Not really unexpected, seeing how UK property shares have performed this year. Of more interest are the comments made by chief executive David Simon in the post-results analyst conference, which made their way back to the UK via JP Morgan Property analyst Harm Meijer. Simon hints that a tie-up between the companies is likely, even it is not the straight takeover deal that the market anticipated last year.

"We're not giving up hope. ... We're just going to see how that evolves," he said, adding that he believes that there are elements where Simon might be able to add to what Liberty does. The worst thing for it would be to try to recoup its investment in a "not-so-intelligent way."

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