November 2010 Archives

Ahead of a trip to Ireland during 2006, George Osborne was quoted as saying the country "stands as a shining example of the art of the possible in long-term economic policymaking, and that is why I am in Dublin: to listen and to learn".  

Now, with Ireland requiring bailouts from the IMF, ECB and George himself, this analysis has fallen some way short of enlightened.

On the opening day of the 2010 Ashes, it's also relevant to mention that in 2007, following our triumphant victory in 2005, there was an expectation of retaining the famous urn and winning Down Under for the first time since 1986/87. 

A humiliating 5-0 whitewash and a number of experienced cricket commentators were left with a similar amount of egg on their faces as our esteemed Chancellor. 

So it is with trepidation that I make reference to the news that CSC has acquired The Trafford Centre from Peel Holdings, and question whether this is a further sign of a more optimistic, although clearly still fragile and polarised, market.

In the doom and gloom of the political narrative around austerity measures and large scale public sector cuts rises a beacon of hope - the retail property sector... 'all hail her' (some gender irony perhaps...)

So, a fraction behind the royal engagement as the story of the week are the six monthly results from some of the big property companies.

In short positive news, and British Land, Land Securities, CSC, Hammerson et al should be congratulated for the way they've managed their businesses through the gloomy days of recession and economic fragility.

But are these results a reflection of the entire retail property market? Possibly not as prime continues to perform well, but secondary and worse is still finding the going tough as retailers either scale back or negotiate tough lease terms, and capital is not made available in sufficient quantities to invest in improving some of these assets in a way that would attract back the cost conscious consumer.

Undoubtedly the catchphrase of the moment is 'localism', which is being driven to a large extent by the Coalition Government's clear and united political ideology.

When presented in a positive way localism can be about empowerment, encouraging local solutions to local problems and a more laissez faire approach to government.

In the negative it is delegation of the worst sort, where organisations and individuals are being asked to deliver services without the resources necessary to ensure they are able to do so successfully.

Caught up in this zeitgeist, do we risk ignoring the influence of global forces?

Take a question I recently asked a senior retail chief executive: "Business rates are going to increase by 4.6% next year due to RPI inflation. Will you join BCSC's campaign calling for a reduction in this increase on a sector whose success will be critical to assuring the UK's future economic prosperity?" 

Some weary faces in the exhibition hall this morning, and a lot of empty Starbucks cups (three days of corporate conference coffee is enough for anyone!). Obviously, I'm  taking this as a positive sign of the previous night's celebrations.

BCSC conference says goodbye to Manchester for another year, a lot of people sound like they've made good progress on various deals and hopefully some people have gone away a bit wiser than when they arrived on Monday.

Now the hard work starts. How can we take forward the debate on lease reform, further explore the evolution of the internet savvy consumer and persuade Government to introduce a local tax re-investment programme variant of TIF...? Any ideas you have would be more than welcome...

Off to Manchester Piccadilly and back to reality, really pleased Bob Crow has gone to the effort to put on a welcome party for me at the other end.......

Day two of conference is complete - although it feels as if it should be day five.......

But my positive muses yesterday were (to some extent!) backed up by the guy from Barclays, and he's a genuine and very brainy economist!

Things are looking up, no double dip and signs of growth into 2012, albeit fairly weak comparatively.

The lesson I've taken from today is that a lot of people have had a lot of time to think over the past two years. The old way of doing things is being interrogated and reformed.

Owners and occupiers are calling for the modernisation of lease structures, while others continue to push sustainability to the top of the agenda.

Titans from the public and private sectors clashed horns over developers' roles and responsibilities, in town and city centre economic development.

In my experience train journeys can be a perfect opportunity for quiet reflection on your future hopes and aspirations. Especially if that journey is late on a Sunday night with barely anyone else around including, frustratingly for me, the person responsible for operating the buffet car....

My aspirations for BCSC's return to Manchester are pretty simple - more happy faces than 2009 and ideas that can be converted into actions to support the growth of the sector.

The financial and economic crisis is by no means entirely behind us but the atmosphere in the run up to this week has been far more positive than 12 months ago. Recent reports suggest an increasing demand for retail property investments, the opening of One New Change brought a timely sense of optimism pre Christmas (thanks Land Securities!) and a number of retailers have recently posted strong trading figures.

But what about those elephants in the room - particularly the scale of the future development pipeline, the impact of tax rises and public spending cuts - especially on secondary and tertiary retail locations, and the unwillingness of some parties to invest in depreciating assets. These issues will be hotly debated by industry experts this week, and ultimately guide our campaigning, research and events agenda for 2011 and beyond.

To a large extent this week is about providing a market place to showcase company plans and do business deals. By the end of the week we'll know whether this positivity has translated into deals - in the interests of our industry I hope it does.