April 2011 Archives

Survival of the fittest

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The obvious thing to dwell on this week is the slightly worrying figures announced recently by some of our better known retailers, and the BRC. Followed by a depressing forecast that our sector is doomed, either people have stopped spending money due to fear of unemployment and economic armageddon or the Internet revolution has finally resulted in consumers spending 100% of their disposable income online. Fear not, I have a much more philosophical and positive spin which might act as a bit of an antidote to constant media negativity (which I suppose is what you would expect). 

Actually I can't lay claim to this particular view as it came from a far smarter colleague of mine. We are unquestionably witnessing a fundamental shift in the way consumers spend their money. Online is increasingly the platform of choice for extracting diminishing cash and consumers are increasingly savvy about price (and who pays full price for anything these days?) Loyalty, driven by service, quality product, highly targeted offers (through social media platforms for example) and price is crucial. So are retailers, and consequently their landlords doomed...? Clearly not. But any form of change requires adaptability. Those most able to adapt will, and indeed grow if they can exploit those opportunities presented to them.

Darwin got it, will our industry? Only time will tell.

Small is beautiful

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2008 feels like a long time ago, but not so long that we can't remember large schemes including Cabot Circus, Westfield London and Highcross Leicester which all opened within a month of each other in 2008 to great fanfare and jubilation. It was certainly the high point for our sector, and it has been argued that we were drunk on the availability of cheap finance and seemingly perpetual retail growth driven by consumers willingness to spend spend spend. 

Around that time, in early 2009 from memory, I attended a seminar where Francis Salway, CEO of Land Securities, in his normal calm and considered manner forecast a period where retail development would take the form of smaller and less risky redevelopments, which would nonetheless still provide opportunities for much-needed improvements to retail property supply, and growth for developers' businesses.
 
Recent announcements from Hammerson and Land Securities in Didcot, Oxfordshire and Glasgow, respectively are evidence that this prophecy was pretty accurate.
 
With one or two exceptions it seems this is the shape of things to come over the next few years, and is evidence that the development industry is able to be flexible in its approach to development and identify opportunities for growth even in such a difficult market.
 

Seeing the wood from the trees

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It's sometimes difficult to establish the real health of our sector. For every good news story or research report you read there are three bad ones, but that's because consumers much prefer bad news to good isn't it? [if you are supremely positive and only want to consume good news then take a look at the Good News Network.


Maybe, or maybe it's a sign that the health of the market is still unclear and recovery is inconsistent. So what have we learnt over the past week? Well, Savills predicted that over £120bn of property stock will have to be refinanced by 2012,  leading to a rise in forced sales. Good or bad? Clearly this depends on whether you're the seller or potential purchaser. Either way as we've been saying for a while the key to improved asset performance is effective partnerships, with retailers and local authorities, a good understanding of consumer preferences and identifying, and then delivering, asset management opportunities. 

 

Good news from Colliers' latest Property Pricing Survey, concluding that retail investment is the preferred asset class for investors, as is a positive expectation of improved rental growth over 2011. Bad news too though, in that this rental growth is still not moving into positive territory until 2012.

 

What about the continuing CVA activity? Good or bad? JJB succeeds, where Oddbins fails and the Officers Club simply calls it a day. The CVAs agreed will no doubt save jobs in the short term, but it's not always obvious that they are a long term sustainable solution.

 

One thing is for sure - the very bad news. Today marks the day when almost all empty retail properties have to pay 100% rates after 3 months; a huge barrier to our sector's ability to support private sector led economic growth which we will continue to fight against.

About the Author

Edward Cooke is executive director of the British Council of Shopping Centres

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This page is an archive of entries from April 2011 listed from newest to oldest.

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