September 2011 Archives

The North West is feeling a bit like home from home at the moment. BCSC's conference in Manchester last week was heralded as a great success, and there seemed to be a huge amount of business activity. If that was the preferred measurement of the market I'd be instructing my broker (if I had one of course) to invest in multiple retail and retail property. It is of course not, and the sentiment is in my mind summarised by the comments of one delegate who said that, despite not being dejected, he had hoped 12 months ago that the mood would be far more positive last week than it actually was. 

The dark cloud that is the European sovereign debt crisis and the debacle on Capitol Hill earlier this year seem to be key influencers of current sentiment. Can politicians, regulators, businesses and economists sort out the mess that is the global economy? Yesterday in Liverpool Ed Balls gave his view on how they at least might try in the UK, or at least how he thinks they, the Coalition, should. Now from what I understand Balls has one view of life, and it tends to be his (can't think where he must have learned that approach from!?). He seemed to be rather gleeful that the economy has stagnated since last year, and of course this is because the cuts are 'too far and too fast'. Is he right that taking too much money out of the economy without the necessary tax rises to compensate will ultimately lead us stumbling back towards armageddon...? 

Osborne will get his chance next week to presumably make reference to the lack of choice they had (credit ratings and all that) but my request to him is not to labour on the past, as Balls did a bit yesterday, but to send a strong message about what will drive our economy in the future. Clearly, as Sir Richard Lambert said at our conference last week, in many towns and cities retail is the only game in town and should therefore be front and centre of politicians' minds when developing their ideas for economic growth.

Ed's turn today. All eyes on him, and one or two on his brother I imagine. 

BCSC's Philippa Latimer reports back from Birmingham as the Lib Dem conference closes.

Liberal Democrat conference has historically been the warm up show. Westminster village, the lobbyists, journalist, think tanks and political anoraks, would buy their conference passes and follow the yellow army to their seaside destination of choice. But, hearts would rarely be in it. Few good media stories came from the adventure (Lembit Opik aside), and policy announcements - though intriguing and often innovative - were never likely to get traction so policy professionals tended to shrug and move on.

The 2010 election changed this. The Liberal Democrats are now, as Nick Cleggs likes to say ad nauseum, a Party of Government.  When Ed Davey talks about the role of BIDS and how they might be funded in future - our ears must prick up, and they did. When David Laws and Jeremy Brown talk about how they see economic policy developing, we must pay attention. If a Liberal Democrat Minister is upset about a local development proposal, we have to engage and put the national aims of the property sector in context. It is now fundamental that all Liberal Democrat MPs and Ministers understand the benefits of retail-led regeneration not only for individual communities but for the UK as a whole as a significant part of the economy.

So, with all this in mind, our sector should be pleased with the last few days in Birmingham. Speaking with Ed Davey (BIS Minister with responsibility for the Portas High Streets Review) we received a clear message from him that he and the Coalition Government as a whole did recognise the value of a dynamic retail mix and a variety of different shopping formats and places. His clear appreciation of the benefits of the multiple retailers supporting the smaller and independents by driving footfall was particularly reassuring. Though we pressed him on what he is expecting from Mary's review, he declined to pre-empt her report, noting that it would be foolish to cross the Queen of Shops. Quite.

Beyond the Ministerial team, the backbench MPs encountered were also far more receptive to our industry's agenda than often (local) media hype would suggest. Conversations surrounding the opening of Westfield Stratford were unanimously positive, with the messages about the job creation clearly resonating with all. 

Put simply, most MPs met were desperately keen to work with our sector to bring in regeneration to the hearts of their communities. This commitment to partnership working is encouraging, and if replicated across the Labour and Conservative conferences, could really be the start of some incredibly positive political/public/private innovative schemes. Let's hope so.

So, this year - no shrugs. But still, we move on. Next stop Liverpool.

We just went past Birmingham (where I'm told another slightly less popular conference is taking place) and I swear it immediately got colder. Anyway at least it's September and not the conventional but already long forgotten November. Much to muse on this train journey as I travel through stations that conjure examples of exemplary regeneration such as Birmingham and Manchester, but also others that so often come too near the top of the wrong kind of league table. 

If this hierarchy of the haves and have nots is to be addressed through development what forces will be the key drivers? Political? Of course, they do after all control the purse strings in more ways than one and Government's commitment to 'sustainable development' seems unswerving, for now at least.  This equally applies to local government, and increasingly so as powers are transferred down.  The markets? Well the continuing turmoil accross the globe is doing nothing for business or consumer confidence. But if whole countries are essentially bankrupt then how are markets supposed to react? The banks? Well they continue to come in for a rough ride from all quarters, and justifiably in some circumstances. Consumers? Understandably there is some resistence to spending our way out of a crisis. After all even those who survived the cull and are in work continue to get a bout of the old wobbly knees when their bosses call them in for a chat. Developers? If they could I'm sure they would invest, but, even where finance is available, in many cases the risk is high and the returns unsure. Evidentally it's a combination of all these factors that will mean either success or failure for many of our towns. Get the ingredients right and you might be able to create a delicious concoction that would whet the appetite of even the most discerning consumer, who are after all what make or break our industry. 

All food for thought as we embark on this year's BCSC conference not a huge amount more certain than we were a year ago, but just as willing to explore new ways of thinking and doing business so that we might move forward and out of this sludge of economic malaise.

BCSC Knowledge & Research Manager Davinder Jhamat prepares for BCSC's Annual Conference & Exhibition in Manchester, opening today. 

BCSC's Philippa Latimer prepares for the start of the conference season.

So it would seem that the conkers have started to fall and the blustery days of AA Milne's imagination are back out in full force. This time of year has always signalled the start of the new term. Once school, then university, and now (for me and my public policy colleagues) - Parliament. That's right. Politics is back on.

Notwithstanding the brief riot-induced scramble back to Westminster, MPs have had a pretty good summer holiday. Don't let them fool you. So, with their tan lines only just beginning to fade, they should be appropriately steeled to manage the three week political fist fight that is about to ensue: Party Conference Season.

Party conference season has always been the time for political drama. Forget The Thick of It. This is the reality of it. Remember when Cherie scoffed at Gordon? When John Prescott apologised for inappropriate relations behind open doors? When George announced the inheritance tax break; and Gordon didn't really ever intend to call that election. All dramas. All took place in this, the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness.

But that's not all. Tax Increment Finance - announced at conference last year. The draft NPPF, sprung from fringe events and discussions that took place at Conservative Party Conference in Blackpool - that's right Blackpool - 2007 - BCSC was there. Were you? The principles of the Localism Bill were drip fed from fringe event to fringe event for years. The pebbles of Bournemouth beach knew more about decentralisation than Greg Clark - back in the day.

So, as the Westminster gang decamps to the great cities north of the Watford Gap. BCSC will be following it. There is no denying that party conference season can look like a month long frivolous party. But it's not. It really is a conference, a big debate where policy that will affect our industry years down the line will begin to be formulated. If you don't sit at the table, you can't complain when your voice goes unheard.

From our point of view here at BCSC, we will be keen to track the response of councillors to public sector cuts. Are planning departments' resources being decimated? Are there suitable financial incentives in place to ensure that the retail property pipeline can be properly revived in the future? Is there an appetite amongst the political class to better promote the successes of various shopping/town centres rather than let the narrative be driven by negative reports of decline and despair? Will Mary Portas save us or sacrifice us? So many questions (and yes, some canapés too) to be had.

So, next week as many of you hit Manchester for BCSC's own conference (and there are tickets on the door for those of you as yet unregistered), fear not. BCSC will also be represented down the road in Birmingham as Nick Clegg and his merry Coalition warriors descend to hear the slow claps/cheers (your guess is as good as mine) of the Liberal Democrat Party Membership. We'll keep you posted as to how we get on.

For updates from all the conferences, political and in-house, follow us at @bcscretailprop.