March 2012 Archives

Not everybody's perfect, as I regularly have to tell my beautiful wife. So of course there will be those usual suspects who bemoan Mary Portas and Grant Shapps for not being radical, innovative or bold enough, not thinking 'outside the box' (I'd hate to live in a box) or for not coming up with solutions for terminal, irreparable town centre decline. Incidentally there is often a real lack of vision from those same protagonists, naturally it's much easier to criticise. The reality is that there is of course no silver bullet, never has been, never will be.

An example of falling into the trap of thinking there is one solution, or that there are some options that should be ignored by all, comes from Cllr Simon Cooke, great name so presumably a great and very able man. In a recent blog he claims it is absolutely the case that retail does not represent either a solution or a future for town centres and that planners and developers are attached limpet-like to big retail developments as some sort of salvation for struggling centres. 

He is of course right, and wrong. Because for many towns big retail developments are definitely not the solution, nor are they a realistic aspiration as making a new retail scheme stack up financially in a top 100 retail location is hard enough, let alone many of the UKs marginal towns. However in some cases they of course can be, Leeds will undoubtedly benefit from the improved retail offer, and additional inward investment, resulting from Land Securities' Trinity Leeds development. As for consumers, do they want schemes like this? Well they vote with their feet, and Facebook likes (Trinity Leeds already has 1,800+ and it doesn't open until next year...), and many big retail developments are doing very well.  

Which brings me to my next point - the other trap that people fall into is talking about the need for town centres to reinvent themselves to become more than just retail. A plea to everyone, next time you walk down your high street, or visit your shopping centre, and see 'just retail' please contact me, because in my experience it simply does not exist, and for many years the diversity of shopping centres and town centres has evolved, at least in terms of uses if not retail brands, to be far more than that. Just look at Trinity Leeds, retail, leisure, catering all under one magnificent looking roof.  

Now I'm not naïve, I understand the issues facing our sector, and we recognised very early on that these are structural and not cyclical. We've been saying since 2009 that in some locations there is a significant over supply of retail floorspace, which will ultimately need to be taken out of use for places to thrive. Government's intention to reform the restrictive use class order will naturally be part of the solution. As will the recognition in Portas, Government's response and industry commentators, including Julian Dobson, that we need to breathe life into towns and cities through innovative community led events, a planning system that encourages a range of uses in town centres (thank goodness this has been recognised in the final NPPF), a delivery infrastructure that already exists in many towns and cities and will be enhanced by Town Teams- not least in terms of knowledge transfer, and money for BID start up costs.  

For us greater property owner involvement in shaping the places where they have investments is key, the good guys do this fabulously well, but then there are 'the others', and perhaps Mary's involvement and Government's endorsement will put creating vibrant town centres on a par as a political priority with collecting domestic refuse, and providing good social care (one can live in hope...)   

My only disappointment (other than the lack of movement on business rate levels... but it's my strong intention to stay in a good mood on this gorgeous Friday so I won't dwell on this...) is that the Minister didn't seize this as an opportunity to argue that Pasty Shops need a greater presence on the high street. That way none of us could pretend not to know the price of Greggs sausage rolls (two for £1.60 if you were wondering)

Philippa Latimer on a new drive for sustainable retail property.

Government consultations come like buses. After a good few months respite from drafting lengthy technical responses on all things sustainable, this week has seen a sudden downpour. 

Following George Osborne's hint that there would be a Government rethink on the CRC, seemingly wasting no time, on Tuesday DECC Minister Ed Davey launched the official call for evidence from interested parties. At 92 pages, we should assume that this is going to be a pretty comprehensive review of the scheme.

On the same day, DECC colleague Greg Baker launched: The Renewable Heat Incentive, interim cost control. This could perhaps better have been titled: How do we pay for this?

Not to be outdone by DECC, DEFRA too got in on the act. Defying some frantic rumours circulating that she was about to announce new rules on company reporting of greenhouse gas emissions, Caroline Spelman in fact published a report indicating that the Government needed more time to work out the best way forward in this area. 

Given that 2018 submissions were received during the initial consultation process, it seems fair that the civil servants might want a couple more months to digest and respond. 2018 submission on greenhouse gases - some might consider it to be a load of hot air (!)

As we nonchalantly bask in unusually high temperatures and naughtily parade our sunburnt noses, perhaps it is no bad thing that with a sudden jolt and the loud thud of the weighty Government proposals hitting our desks that we are simply forced to refocus on attention back towards reducing emissions. 

Right, there is no time like the present, I have some consultations to read (in the park, naturally).

... but the proof will be in the interpretation and testing of the new NPPF. The anticipation in the run up to 12.30 today (and then 12.40, and 12.55, 1.15, at this stage the only people who seemed to have a copy were Greg Clark and Liz Peace, until finally CLG woke up after lunch and put it on the website) was more akin to the kick off before a big international sporting fixture. Just without the beer and crisps. Much to many people's amusement #NPPF was trending on twitter! 

At one point that was the story, as people hadn't had a chance to read to actual thing... Planners, and planning lawyers, have never been so in demand... As Chris Brown of Igloo tweeted 

'#NPPF Headline: For planning lawyers and consultants the recession is now officially over'.

So what of it? Damp squib? Radical changes from the draft? More clarity? Less of a 'Developer's Charter'? Did we get what we wanted?  

We're pleased that the primacy of the plan is confirmed ensuring development consistent with an up-to-date local plan should be approved, and of course that the presumption in favour of sustainable development remains.  However we raised concerns about the vagueness of statements relating to the presumption so we were pleased to see that it is more clearly defined, making reference to the Brundtland Commission definition and that of the UK Sustainable Development Strategy 'Securing the Future'. 

Of course we support the more detailed interpretation of sustainable development being made locally, which is why we're working with one of the Prince's charities Business in the Community (BITC) on another type of framework (might struggle to get this one trending...) that aims to help local authorities, local people and investors identify how this definition applies to them by establishing the economic, social and physical impact of a retail development. The wriggle room we thought the words 'where practical' provided has been addressed, by assigning them to the dustbin, and we have confirmation that offices, and other town centre uses, will still be subject to the sequential test.  These changes, along with a few others on timeframes and thresholds for impact assessments are also to be welcomed.

All in all from our perspective the framework is a good document, and the changes have clearly reflected the concerns of many, including ourselves, in relation to town centres. Now the focus immediately changes from central to local as we engage with local councils on ensuring their plans are up-to-date and fit for purpose as we try and find ways to get much needed investment back into our towns and cities.   

What a budget Budget for retailers. And what a political Budget, reminding us, if we needed reminding, that Osborne is political beast first and foremost, economist second, and only because it was in the job spec. 

The Quad prioritised announcements on changes to the personal income tax allowance, the top rate of tax, the (welcome) accelerated reduction in the corporation tax rate and a higher rate of SDLT for homes over £2mn, which will have kept (London) lawyers and estate agents busy this week. But politicians, SPADS and officials seemed totally unprepared for the reaction to the 'granny tax', perhaps not realising that grannies are now pretty well versed on the workings of the Internet (you have to read this forum chat about Sylvia's husband and his knees! Cheered us all up on Budget day, which is quite an achievement) and Twitter, as #grannytax trended at the top of the list. I understand some even have Facebook sites!? They also vote, and in greater numbers than their overworked, time poor and underpaid working equivalents. Lesson learned, defense underway. 

Although this is all highly entertaining and intriguing from a political perspective the amount given away is roughly equivalent to what was grabbed back, a fiscally neutral Budget as expected, and we didn't get much of what we'd asked for from HMT (if you're interested in the Budget decision making process this blog by Damien McBride, former Gordon Brown SPAD of lurid rumour fame, is worth a read). 

Nothing on business rates, costs too much and no votes, something vague on TIF, but unclear what the amount of money, £150 mn, refers to as officials are still sitting on their hands in relation to the TIF Technical Paper which we were promised yonks ago (never has the word imminent been more inaccurately used), and a delayed announcement on the NPPF other than confirmation of Government's support for a POWERFUL (wonder what this means) presumption in favour of sustainable development. 

There was something to cheer, or perhaps to allow us to break a smile rather than leap from your chair in jubilation, on reviewing the Carbon Reduction Commitment, and the way the Use Class Order is applied. But not enough to pop a cork by any stretch of the imagination.

And on to next week, Portas and planning. Already excited about that...

Anticipation is rife on whether or not the NPPF will be published next Wednesday, at the same times as the equally exciting (if you're a bit of a nerd) but more certain, at least the timing if not the content, Budget. 

You have to give it to DCLG. After considerable media attention over the summer and into the autumn last year it has successfully (despite our wicked attempts to prise information from them) battened down the hatches, taken the phones off the hook and gone into almost complete radio silence. Only to appear every now and again, like yesterday (see @communitiesuk ), to deny all knowledge of anything and certainly to dismiss those dastardly tweeters who claim to know when the NPPF was to be announced. 

Perhaps the recent lobby from backbenchers led by our office favourite Zac Goldsmith, was enough to encourage a further round of internal consultation, and perhaps will give Parliament its chance to debate the shortcomings of whatever is produced.  

I was at an event last week, run by Berkeley Homes on its excellent Working together: Delivering localism through growth initiative (favourite line from Berkeley Chairman indomitable Tony Pidgley "we had 4 NIMBYS trying to stop us doing something, so we found 500 people in the community to support us. They soon went away."), where Sir "2 Jobs Bob" Kerslake (apparently one of Eric Pickles' favourite jokes) was one of the invitees. Clearly the publication date of the NPPF came up, and with the skill of one of his political masters he dodged confirming whether or not Budget day was 'the day'. So it is with baited breath that we wait for the outcome of this seminal Government policy that will undoubtedly affect us all in one way or another. 

The MPs request that Government commits to genuinely sustainable development that does not prioritise short term economic interests over long term quality of life and wellbeing has our support, and ensuring town and city centres thrive is critical to ensuring this aspiration. We continue to keep a close eye on #NPPF, as when DCLG officials come up from their bunker in the depths of Eland House then the fun will really begin.

Philippa Latimer looks at the ever- evolving world of social media and its relevance for retail property.

Late last year BCSC published research into the use of social media by shopping centres. The results were a tricky pill to swallow. As much as we all seemed to express an interest in emerging digital trends, many of those consulted admitted that they felt overwhelmed, disorientated and ignorant when it came to making decisions about how best to use online platforms and communities to drive footfall into retail malls.

At the time of publication, December 2011, we held an event here in London to accompany the launch and talk through some of the key findings and tips for how to develop a social media strategy.  All the key current social media platforms were touched on: facebook, twitter, foursquare, youtube, flickr and more.

The December event was so successful (oversubscribed!) that last week we held another social media seminar which again sought to hone in on the findings of the report and share best practice examples. Although it's only been four months since that first event, the recent event hosted fresh insights and discussion of the most recent social media platforms which look set to again reshape the online landscape.

The recent developments of new and adapted platforms such as pinterest and facebook's timeline featured in the questions and answer session as attendees grappled with the pace of change in social media. It now seems that it is not simply enough adapt to each new platform as it appears, but rather it is crucial that we fundamentally adapt to the pace at which these new platforms will appear. The pace seems to get faster and faster.

This spring shopping centre managers will be grappling with the language of pinterest and what it can do for shoppers and tenants. Come summer it could be a whole new language for a whole new platform.

The youtube clip below was originally made in 2007 and it speaks to a whole number of global shifts, but the pace of change is the key message that we have to take away: true in 2007, and still true today. The lesson for us all is that change is now the constant. We must adapt our working practices, marketing strategies and professional outlook accordingly.

For more on our social media research, please see here.

Philippa Latimer on understanding consumer spending.

This week, Martin Weale, External Member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee delivered the Dean's Lecture at Cass Business School on the (not so short title) of From retailers' paradise to shoppers' strike: what lies behind the weakness in consumption? 

There were two key graphs that stood out in his assessments, both below - real income per capita since 2008 and real consumption per capita since 2008.  

As you can see from the graphs real disposable income per person had fallen by 5 per cent from its peak in 2007, and by 15 per cent relative to its trend. Meanwhile consumption per head has by 8 per cent from its 2007 peak, and over 18 per cent below the pre-crisis trend.

Weale then went on to explore why consumption has fallen further than income. The nuts and bolts seem to be that people are saving more. We're popping our hard earned cash into piggy banks for a rainy day - and quite right too. 

Clearly of most interest to retailers, and therefore to their landlords too, is which of us (old/young/male/female) are saving to a lesser or greater extent and what it is that is influencing our decisions. 

For example, constrained consumption in my demographic group (the just under thirties) would have had a marked impact on sales of products previously enjoyed by myself and peers (sauvignon blanc or topshop jeans perhaps?). 

Weale goes into this in a lot of detail posing some interesting questions and explaining certain nuances in a way that I could never do. I'd recommend that you read the full lecture, available here.