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So Britain's biggest retailer Tesco, announced its strongest sales for three years today. For it, the big freeze and ensuing panic buying to stock up on storecupboard items can't have hurt. Nor can reports on the BBC's Today programme that because of the freezing conditions we can't get to the high street sales and, faced with being forced to stay indoors, we're splurging on contraception instead.
But for the rest of the high street it's been less cheery (think of Debenhams warning today and Marks and Spencer's performance last week).
Synovate's retail traffic weathermap (see above) shows there's been lower footfall than forecast for December as wintry weather made shopping trips more difficult meaning there were fewer early bargain hunters.
There's a definite north/south divide with footfall dropping 3% in the midlands and northern england (which covers, the north east, north west Yorkshire and the Humber). In contrast it rose in London and the south east (4%) and Wales and the south west(nearly 3%).
Looking forward there's a distinctly frosty outlook for Scotland and Northern Ireland with Synovate predicting a 5% drop in footfall in January. In northern england there's a more modest 0.3% drop. Prospects are still upbeat for the midlands, the southeast and the soutwest growth although looks like it will slow this month
However, compared to last year this Christmas was gloomy with Scotland and Northern Ireland registering double digit falls, and the rest of the country all heading south. In England, London and the south east saw the biggest drops with a 6% drop.
The good news for retailers and landlords alike means this should at least preserve margins and secure solid trading results. Month on month footfall was up 27% but its set to drop by more than that same amount this month (more on that by clicking the continue reading link below).
Overall, Synovate warns that there's not much to cheer about with VAT rises bolstering December shopping there's likely to be a cooling off in January. Likewise those holding out for bargains or expecting to see a return of the flurry of administrations last new year brought will be disappointed. Its analsyis reckons there's less leftover stock so fewer bargains. It's good news for retailers keen to preserve margins and trading results but ultimately they may just be storing up pain for further down the line.
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