Dublin's office market is set for a slide this quarter. That's the latest forecast from CBRE this morning which said in its July bimonthly report
that take-up in quarter two is likely to be less than the 34,000 sq m achieved in the same period last year.
The fact that the Irish office market is having a slippery ride might surprise few but bear in mind that figures for quarter two have held steady at around the 35,000 sq m level for a good couple of years - and it is has hardly been a bed of roses. If they're now struggling to even reach this level then something is broken, and it that something seems to be corporate confidence.
CBRE lists the usual culprits: heightened uncertainty about the prospects for the Eurozone and existing landlords offering enticing terms to keep occupiers put all mean those looking for space are postponing decisions.
Well known requirements from Twitter, Deutsche Bank and Capita are all still on the horizon. But even with these CBRE's estimates for the end of year will be 100,000 m2 against a ten year average of 160,000 sq m. It puts the blame squarely on the length of time it is taking for deals to sign in the current climate.
The positives are that refurbishment is showing some signs of making a comeback. Cash buyers seem to be showing a keen interest in empty or partially let buildings. The idea is because capital values have tumbled so far and spec development is, to put it nicely, unlikely, some want to have refurbished stock ready to go when the supply squeeze starts to take hold.
But in a show of how slow things have got CBRE says that there is traditionally a slowdown in activity in the Dublin office markets in July and August. However, it adds, it appears that activity will remain relatively consistent through the Summer.
CBRE's report looks at all sectors of the Ireland market. A full version is available here