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PUBLISHED 15 OCTOBER 2011
Supply and Development
A look at trends in the marketplace
Mark Simmons, freelance writer, 07787 561032, email@example.com
A look at London on the world stage
Adrian Morrison, freelance writer, 07818 013 233, firstname.lastname@example.org
What's the outlook for the City and Dockland's investment market?
James Buckley, deputy news editor, 020 7911 1810, email@example.com
Where will future demand come from?
David Thame, freelance writer 01544 262 896, firstname.lastname@example.org
Market health check
Covers offices in the City and Docklands. Please send up to date stats to Stacey Meadwell, regional editor email@example.com
Please contact writers with editorial information by Tuesday 20th September, 2011
If you're an agent heavily into your plastics and rubber - we know there must be some of you out there - particularly those in the North East with it's heavy bent towards petrochemical occupiers it shows the worst is not over. The oil industry didn't fare that well either with 0.18% of the sector filing for insolvency in July. And, as occupier demand is thin in the region to say the least and it's difficult to see who might replace these voids.
You can see a complete table of business failures by sector and by region by clicking Experian insolvency research July 2011.xls.
Health and household topped the charts with none of its members going bust but pharmaceuticals, the bedrock of Cambridge's occupier base, also performed strongly a good sign for all those developers with cranes on the city's skyline.
Insurance followed closely behind plastics and rubber with 0.32% of its business populaton failing, a grim reminder to The City it is not out of the woods yet. So too for banking which while safely occupying the middle ground in terms of percent of business failing is still seeing a year on year increase in insolvency.By sheer numbers business services registered the highest number of insolvencies.
For the industry itself, property companies continued to fail at a greater rate than this time last year up from 0.05% in July 2010 to 0.07% in July 2011.
Geographically, the North West performed worst with 0.14% of its firms failing - more than any other region.Scotland it seems was the best.
Picture by Fetish Art Identification Search on Flickr
King Sturge, as usual, is the first to put its marker down treating its holiday-lagged clients to a breakfast presentation of its predictions yesterday.
But before we take a peak at what they reckon will happen this year, let's have a look at what they said last year and whether or not it proved true.
Well, for 2010 the Docklands was highlighted as a hotspot in the London market and, based on take up alone, that seemed to prove the case. According to BNP Paribas Real Estate's figures that we'll be publishing in this Saturday's edition of the mag, office lettings were up by an incredible 450%, albeit from a low base.
King Sturge also correctly predicted rental growth in London and a widening gap between London and the regions' office rents.
Birmingham and Leeds were top of the list of cities causing concern for the firm. Year end figures aren't available just yet but by the end of Q3, according to Drivers Jonas Deloitte, supply in Birmingham was on the increase and rents had fallen back by £1 per sq ft. Similar figures for Leeds supplied by Colliers International show supply rising, weak take up and a small drop in rents.
So what of 2011? King Sturge's head of research Angus McIntosh said the overriding feature of this year would be 'stagflation' with the market bounce-back over, albeit with some exceptions.
Peter Bishop, Group Director, Design, Development & Environment, London Development Agency
Masterplanning the Royal Docks, exploiting the opportunities for the green economy and development potential in the City East
Peter Bishop has the conference after lunch snooze shift still, he's brightening up proceedings by showing the audience the beautiful watercolour of Abercrombie London plan from the 40s - a time, he says, when architects knew how to paint.
East london has been on the cusp of being London's new development area for the last forty years and it is still on the cusp of being London's new development area. Now, its about to go over the cusp:
* London has 160 nationalities and 350 different languages
* In 1991 London started to increase in population and now we are having to accomodate 650, 000 new people
* London is beginning to move eastwards but it has been a very, very slow process
* Development here has never been an easy,smooth process. London makes elegant lurches, takes bold moves like Canary Wharf and Excel centre. Needs another bold move.