Recently in Edinburgh Category

While our Edinburgh reception was in full swing I managed to coax some of the city's agents and developers to a quiet(ish) corner to ask them about the market's prospects this year and whether the Scottish capital would be leading the way out of recession.

A full set of photo's from the reception can be found by clicking  clicking here and our Edinburgh Focus is published in this weeks magazine.

Edinburgh property market predictions from Stacey Meadwell on Vimeo.

 

Regional rents may be over the worst. Jones Lang LaSalle has issued what at first looks like an up-beat release for developers desperate to get cracking on those building plans (read the full report here). But read on, the agency goes on to say that it's a shortage of supply and definitely not a growth in demand that's pushing up those rents.

Look at its office clock and that bottom left quadrant, which shows rents accelerating is sadly and totally empty. From a regional point of view only a handful are inching past the 4pm rents bottoming out mark.

Edinburgh and Leeds started to fall later so are behind the cycle and only just beginning to catch up now, says JLL. Birmingham fell first so is already past the worst.

Despite changing the time of the event three times Edinburgh's agents, developers and public sector still turned out in force yesterday (sorry everyone!).

EG's editor Damian Wild commented in his speech on how it was a Scottish agent last year that had given him his frankest description of market conditions - a word I dare not repeat here but it rhymes with 'hit'.
 
Fortunately that Scottish frankness did not seem to warrant such language now the new decade has arrived. The chat was very much about continuing tough conditions but some light at the end of the tunnel.

It was great to see so many familiar faces and some new, here are all the pictures including the winners of the EGi deals database competition: Jones Lang LaSalle and Ryden. The Edinburgh Focus synopsis is also available here.

 
Pictures by Alan Donaldson

Development
Where will the next wave of development come from and who will build it? Contact: Adrian Morrison, freelance writer, 0131 556 9378, adrian.morrison@addmor.com

Occupiers
Where is demand for business space going to come from? Contact: Adrian Morrison, freelance writer, 0131 556 9378, adrian.morrison@addmor.com 

Investment
Analysis of the strength of the investment market. Contact: Bridget O'Connell, deputy news editor, 020 7911 1755, bridget.o'connell@estatesgazette.com

Overview
Statistical analysis of the office and industrial sectors. Contact: Melanie Smith, editorial assistant, 020 7911 1916, melanie.smith@estatesgazette.com

Retail
Analysis of the markets prospects. Contact: Melanie Smith, editorial assistant, 020 7911 1916, melanie.smith@estatesgazette.com

People
How is the agency landscape shaping up as the first signs of an end to the recession begin to appear? Contact: Melanie Smith, editorial assistant, 020 7911 1916, melanie.smith@estatesgazette.com


 
 

So some cities have woken up to positive news this morning thanks to research by Centre for Cities but then some haven't.

Brighton, Milton Keynes, Reading, Cambridge and Edinburgh - are ranked as the top five centres "to watch" as the economy recovers because they have strong private sectors, high levels of entrepreneurship, highly educated workforces, and a large share of knowledge-intensive jobs to succeed after the recession.

But languishing at the bottom of the table and described as having "a tough outlook" are: Stoke, Burnley, Barnsley, Newport and Doncaster. Weaker business bases, loss of private sector jobs prior to the recession, and low business start ups are among the reasons given.

Not a great start to the week particularly for Yorkshire which has two towns in the bottom five: Barnsley and Doncaster. Neighbouring Humber city Hull also features heavily having had a large number of job losses.

The relationship between planners and developers has always been a tense one and never more so than in East Scotland it seems.

In Inverness, for example, David Thame looks at the long running row over a new ASDA store in the city and how it has challenged planning policy in the Highlands. Planning policy is also being called into question in Melanie Smith's piece on Perth. The council there quite rightly wants to protect the city centre's retail but not all agree that the policy is working for the best.

Fortunately there are no such planning drama's being played out in Aberdeen and Edinburgh, well not as far as we know, instead Scotland's oil-capital is celebrating opening the doors to it's brand new shopping centre Union Square. Elaine Cavanagh looks at the wider impact the scheme will have on Aberdeen's retail market.

As for the Scottish capital, a planning battle would probably be a welcome distraction at the moment. Melanie Clarkson finds a city that is licking the wounds of recession and generally feeling sorry for itself as rival Glasgow seems to be snagging all the best deals.

And don't even mention the state of Princes Street where retail rents have dropped by more than 10% in the past year.

But East Scotland isn't our only Focus Lisa Pilkington our Midlands editor and blogger is looking at the East Midlands in tomorrow's mag too. For a sneak head over to her blog by clicking here

And so December is approaching and the Focus roadshow is coming to end for another year but, before we depart for our Christmas holidays, we like to get the crystal ball out and have a look at what is coming up in the year ahead. (It can't be worse than this year, can it?)

As we will be entering a new decade, we want to look at how the last 10 years has shaped the market in 10 cities around the UK and how that might influence the market.

Dan and Mel have divided up the country between them and are looking at five cities each. Do get in touch with them for more detail about the information and type of  comment they are after.

The 2010 Preview will be published on December 12 and please contact the writers by Monday 23 November.

London, Bristol, Liverpool, Manchester & Newcastle:

Daniel Cunningham, senior writer 020 7911 1822, daniel.cunningham@rbi.co.uk

Cardiff, Birmingham, Leeds, Edinburgh, Glasgow:
Melanie Smith, Focus editorial assistant, 020 7911 1916, melanie.smith@rbi.co.uk

Picture by Francesca Rose on Flickr and used under creative commons

At the start of the year everyone could be forgiven for being more than a little concerned about job security. And certainly that was the message coming out of our sentiment survey of Edinburgh and Glasgow property professionals conducted in Q1 and Q2.

Nearly a quarter of those questioned thought there would be more large scale redundancies to come, while the majority of the remainder felt there would be some more job losses but the worst was over.

Fast forward to our summer survey and has a brief spell of fine weather and the odd rumour of an end to recession changed anything? Well the numbers predicting large scale redundancies has definitely been kicked into touch down from 26.2% to 5.6% in Edinburgh and 18.8% to 7.7% in Glasgow.

The majority still believe there are some small scale job cuts to come. And, while it is probably best described as less negative rather than a positive, an increasing number believe there won't be any further sackings now compared to the start of the year.

No one quite dares to hope there will be any recruitment though. So the barometer it seems is slowly edging away from 'stormy' to 'rain'. (Reminds me a bit of the weather on childhood holidays in the Highlands.)

For more on how Scotland's property professionals are feeling about the economy and the market in general, see this week's EG. In it you will also find features on how Edinburgh and Glasgow's historic dependence on financial services to occupy new development is coming back to haunt them and how having a devolved government is helping, or not as the case may be, to protect the Scottish economy.

There is also a piece by our Midlands editor and former EG Scotland news hound Lisa Pilkington on how the future of two key schemes in the Scottish capital hangs in the balance. It seems that it is not only the recession that is biting developers...

Picture by Spixey on Flickr and used under creative commons
 

Sentiment is so important in the property industry and since the start of the year we have been tracking how people in key markets around the country feel about their industry and its prospects for the coming months.

We are in the process of doing the second surveys for Scotland (Edinburgh and Glasgow), Bristol and the East of England to see if the mood has changed.

But we can't do that unless lots of people fill out our quick online survey. It's totally anonymous and we'll be publishing the full results online as well analysing them in the magazine.

So if you work in property in:
Scotland click here
Bristol click here
East of England click here

The publication dates for the features are 29 August for Scotland and 5 September for Bristol and the East of England.

Picture by yourdon on Flickr and used under creative commons

Poor Manchester. Of the 11 cities Knight Frank examines as part of its Q2 ROMP - that's Regional Office Market Presentation to you and me - the capital of the north tops the chart for drop in top office rents. These are predictions mind you but Knight Frank reckons the city will see prime rents drop by 7% or £2 per sq ft by the end of the year.

CBRE has also recently put out its figures for Manchester and despite the emphasis on take up and impending deals, there was the telling line in the press release: "Office supply in Manchester is currently higher than it has been over the past five years."

Edinburgh, Birmingham, Leeds and Sheffield are also predicted to see rents drop in Knight Franks report.

But the smug office developer award has to go to Cardiff. While there are a handful of cities which are expected to maintain headline rentals, the Welsh capital has actually seen rental growth, a rare feat indeed during this recession. OK it was one smallish deal but there is so very little to get smug about at the moment.

You can view Knight Frank's Q2 ROMP here. And for more on the South Wales market look out for a blog post here tomorrow and this weekends EG.

Picture by Vegaseddie on Flickr and used under creative commons