By Nadia Elghamry on November 13, 2009 3:12 PM
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There are signs the Cardiff investment market is frothing a bit, something that I've explored in this week's EG (there's more info on this below). But is it really a recovery, the cream of the crop as those with cash burning a hole in their pockets decide the market hit its lowest ebb or is that froth masking something more deathly sinister.
Peter Graham, director at Cardiff-based Stephenson Alexander, has been into the Cardiff investment vault and delved around in the figures to see if history can teach us anything, and he's spotted some interesting facts.
You can read the full analysis behind the bullet points below by clicking through on the "continue reading" link below but here are the highlights. A quick health warning with these numbers. Graham stresses that the figures were put together before the recent, rapid yield compression seen in Cardiff offices market in just the last few weeks.
Yields and the fall in value are higher today than in 1991, as valuations overheated in 2005-2007
Property returns were higher in 1991
Although the base rate was higher in 1991 there was more lending and people took this because proeprty returns were higher.
Today there's more yield volatily and returns are unlikely to improve
Invester may have got "scared" by the rapid fall away in the market but they have "short memory" syndrome
Food store investment still offers a good return for little risk but it can't carry on forever
Property yields will fall but investors have a resistance to yields and Graham predicts yields going to 5% in the near future.
In this week's EG we've also looked at Cardiff's new headline offices rent 5 Callaghan Square - Stacey Meadwell asks what it really means for the market.
In Swansea, regen chiefs are dipping into the public purse in a hope of kicking off a revival but in Newport Melanie Smith finds there little evidence - bar a couple of car parks, and a refurbished shopping centre - of the city's renaissance launched 6 years ago.
Another grand scheme, St Athans is also hitting the buffers. David Thame analyses the reasons that the areospace park has failed to fly.
It's also Mipim Asia next week so Focus has cast its eye to the Far East. David Thame looks at what delegates can expect from the event as China's economic growth rate heads for double figures and big name Western investors look closely at its property investment market.
By Nadia Elghamry on October 6, 2009 11:44 AM
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With just over a month to the show in Hong Kong we'll be looking at what to expect from Mipim Asia this year and also a look at what delegates might be talking about once they get there. Please do get in touch with David if you've got any ideas, thoughts or suggestions on where the Asian property market is heading.
ESTATES GAZETTE MIPIM ASIA AND INTERNATIONAL FOCUS NOVEMBER 14, 2009 ISSUE
Preview A guide to this year's show. David Thame, freelance writer, 01544 262 896, dthame@clara.co.uk
Investment Where to invest in Asia. A look at the local markets and their prospects. David Thame, freelance writer, 01544 262 896, dthame@clara.co.uk
Deadline for receipt of editorial information is 28th October
By Stacey Meadwell on August 25, 2009 3:26 PM
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Last year's Expo Real in Munich had a slightly sombre feel to it as many countries tottered on the brink of recession. The global economy has only got worse since then but with stories of some key economies starting to emerge from recession will there be a different mood at the property trade fair this year?
David Thame will be looking at what to expect at the show while writers from our sister magazine EuroProperty will be scrutinising the Central and Eastern European markets to assess the investment opportunities and property market trends.
All the writers contact details are below if you feel you'd like to contribute.
ESTATES GAZETTE EXPO & INTERNATIONAL FOCUS PUBLISHED 3 OCTOBER 2009
EXPO A guide to what to expect from this year's show.
Contact: David Thame, freelance writer, 01544 262 896, dthame@clara.co.uk Eastern Europe and Russia investment
Analysis of hot spots and not spots
Contact: David Sands deputy editor, EuroProperty, 020 7911 1828, david.sands@rbi.co.uk
Germany
What are the implications for the property sector of recent reports that Germany is out of recession?
Contact: Bert Erik Ten Cate, editor EuroProperty, 020 7911 1847, berterik.tencate@rbi.co.uk
Please contact all writers with editorial information by
Monday 7 September 2009
Picture by dubswede on Flickr used under creative commons
By Stacey Meadwell on August 21, 2009 1:03 PM
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Sadly we didn't get to travel to any of the countries or cities we have written about in tomorrow's Focus but, if you are lucky enough to win the £64m jackpot in tonight's Euromillions lottery, you might want to read Nadia's piece on holiday home investment.
Obviously if you have such a huge pot of cash whether your asset is going to increase in value in 12 months or five years is to a certain extent irrelevant but others with less liquid cash flows might be more interested to know which are the hot spots and not spots in holiday home investment.
Now if you want to spend that money on commercial property then take at look at my piece. A shed outside Barcelona may not be as glamourous as a beach house in the Bahamas but it might make you more money in the medium term. I talked to a number of market experts to get their opinion on where really is best to invest and the answer maybe a little bit closer to home than you imagine.
Picture by tm-tm on Flickr and used under creative commons
By Stacey Meadwell on July 8, 2009 3:01 PM
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Ah, it's that time of year when thoughts start straying to foreign sun-kissed beaches, cocktails by the pool and just generally getting away from it all.
And the Focus desk is no different but, for Nadia and myself, it is foreign investment rather than holidays that is uppermost in our thoughts as we start working on our International Focus.
So if you have research or opinions that might help then do get in touch.
Estates Gazette International Focus Published August 22, 2009
International commercial investment
Which markets are in the best position to recover the quickest?
Stacey Meadwell, Focus editor, 020 7911 1819, stacey.meadwell@rbi.co.uk
International residential
Which development and investment markets are in the best position to recover the quickest?
Nadia Elghamry, deputy Focus editor, 020 7911 1849, nadia.elghamry@rbi.co.uk
Deadline for receipt of editorial information is 31 July 2009
Picture by Jetalone on Flickr and used under creative commons
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