Recently in Newcastle Category

Knight Frank released its amusingly named ROMP report yesterday (that's Regional Office Market Presentation - just don't google ROMP on its own on your office computer - well maybe a colleagues) in which it compares and contrasts the market performance in 11 regional cities around the UK. 

Not at Mipim then it must be MipOUT. While the rest of the property industry was feeling a bit 'tired' and washed-out Young Surveyors - The Next Generation (their words not mine) were out partying. 

Over 300 young property professionals crammed themselves into west end nightclub Apres, London last night . And there was a distinct Mipim theme to the year with a Mipim themed bar serving Dinner at the Martinez and Lunch on the Beach cocktails - well, to capture the true spirit of Mipim all 'meals' really had to be liquid.

The event, in its first year, was organised by Charlie Curtis (Finn & Co), Tim Monger-Godfrey (CBRE) and Alex Springer (Knight Frank) as a networking event for the next generation of the property industry.

The stories from last night are sure to emerge, once the bacon sandwiches washed down with Berocca have done their magic. 

A proportion of the money taken will be donated to Great Ormond Street Hospital. 

Today's news that 1NG, the city development company for the Newcastle and Gateshead conurbation, has been axed by the two councils that fund it, has caused quite a stir.

The official word from Newcastle and Gateshead councils is that this is the launch of "new arrangements" to attract inward investments to the region, with 1NG's functions to be subsumed into the councils, the city promotional body NewcastleGateshead Initiative to begin a new drive to attract businesses, and 1NG chairman Lord Falconer to head a new Business Development Commission.

However, among Newcastle's there are clearly some concerns.Canvassing opinion today, some are putting a brave face on, with Sanderson Weatherall's Robert Patterson commenting: "I'm sure, going forward, the local authorities can achieve as much [as 1NG]."

But BNP Paribas Real Estate's Paul Nicholson said: "My concern is that another organisation with the North East's interests at heart has been shipped off."

 

New quarterly research by GVA predicts that of the UK's top nine cities it will be Bristol that will see office demand outstrip supply first - and the balance could be tipped this year.

Take up in Q2 across the cities - Bristol, Cardiff, Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Edinburgh and Glasgow - was 9% up on the three year quarterly average and the lack of new development means supply of grade A space is eroding. Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow will follow Bristol's lead next year, reckons GVA.

It must be good news for the likes of HDG Mansur who's 110,000 sq ft speculative Bridgewater House in Bristol completed recently and Edinburgh city council which is building 180,000 sq ft of speculative offices as part of the EICC extension due to complete next year.

But concern for the longer term prospects of the market remain. The problem is that despite diminishing grade A stock and deals like the 215,000 sq ft letting to Admiral in Cardiff boosting the figures, demand in the longer term remains a little thin on the ground.

Rents have continued to fall but are predicted to stabilise next year with growth of 2.5% predicted in 2013.

Pic by RPTNorris

Barely have we got our over-indulged bodies back behind our desks and it is time to face what the year might bring the property industry.

King Sturge, as usual, is the first to put its marker down treating its holiday-lagged clients to a breakfast presentation of its predictions yesterday.

But before we take a peak at what they reckon will happen this year, let's have a look at what they said last year and whether or not it proved true.

Well, for 2010 the Docklands was highlighted as a hotspot in the London market and, based on take up alone, that seemed to prove the case. According to BNP Paribas Real Estate's figures that we'll be publishing in this Saturday's edition of the mag, office lettings were up by an incredible 450%, albeit from a low base.

King Sturge also correctly predicted rental growth in London and a widening gap between London and the regions' office rents.

Birmingham and Leeds were top of the list of cities causing concern for the firm. Year end figures aren't available just yet but by the end of Q3, according to Drivers Jonas Deloitte, supply in Birmingham was on the increase and rents had fallen back by £1 per sq ft. Similar figures for Leeds supplied by Colliers International show supply rising, weak take up and a small drop in rents.

So what of 2011? King Sturge's head of research Angus McIntosh said the overriding feature of this year would be 'stagflation' with the market bounce-back over, albeit with some exceptions.

Research by DTZ into the impact on office occupancy of public sector job cuts paints an interesting picture of how the regional cities' office markets will fare over the next four years.

The overall story is a good one: growth in private sector jobs, particularly in the financial and business services sector will outstrip the decline in public sector office jobs so there will be no negative impact in the UK's overall office occupancy. In fact DTZ is predicting that the UK's office occupancy will rise by 6.8%.

The figures are of course based on an economy that doesn't go into a double dip recession albeit factoring in sluggish growth predicted in the first half of next year.

However, breaking the figures down to a regional level, the story isn't uniformly good. Some cities are far more dependent on public sector office jobs than others - Blackpool leads the table with 52% of its office space occupied by government workers. (Top 10 list at the end of the post.)

However a high proportion of public sector occupancy doesn't necessary equate to bad news in itself. For example Swansea, which has more than a third of public sector office occupancy, is dominated by the DVLA which is unlikely to feel the sharp edge of the axe. Compare it to Newport which has 29% public sector office occupancy but is home to a passport agency office, which faces the chop.

If there was any drinking to be done last night, post Chancellor George Osborne's Comprehensive Spending Review announcement it was probably more a case of drowning sorrows rather than celebrating.

Leeds City Council was very quick to issue a press release yesterday afternoon announcing that it will be making spending cuts of £150m by 2015 - some £50m next year alone.

But how about other parts of the country, what has the reaction been?

South West

• SWRDA's chief economist Nigel Jump is reported on southwestbusiness.co.uk as saying that the region has lost out to the north when it comes to infrastructure spending and the announcement yesterday confirms fears that 120,000 jobs could go from the region

• The South West Business insider also picks up on infrastructure and how hopes of having an electrified line between London and the region have been dashed while support for green technologies is broadly welcomed

East of England

• Cambridge News has an opinion piece from Steve Sharratt, chairman of the Space for Ideas Business Forum in which he highlights the pro's and con's for the region emphasising the need for Central Government to give sustained support in order to create new jobs.

Midlands

• Our Midlands editor Lisa Pilkington has been gauging opinion from the region over on her blog
  

Yorkshire

• The Yorkshire Post analyses the impact of raising the pension age and fears for public sector jobs in the area but also lists where investment will be made.
• In South Yorkshire, The Star leads on the potential for thousands of job losses in the area noting that Sheffield council will announce how many town hall jobs will go in December.

North West

• The Manchester Evening News reports that Manchester-based economists have warned that George Osborne's sweeping cuts will force the economy into a 'double-dip' recession.
  

• Manchester-based blog Inside the M60 refers to think tank the Institute for Public Policy Research, which says that the severity and speed of the cuts could threaten the recovery in the north of England and widen the north-south divide.
  

• Amid similar fears expressed in Merseyside, the Liverpool Echo highlights the fact that a continued government commitment to major infrastructure work in the region has been welcomed by business leaders.
  

• The Lancashire Evening Post reports fears that hundreds of workers at BAE Systems' Lancashire-based defence factory could be lost as a result of the cuts.
  

North East

• The Newcastle Journal reports that Newcastle council is preparing to consult members of the public as to where the axe should fall as it prepares to make huge cuts.
  

Estates Gazette North East Focus synopsis

Published October 16th, 2010

  

Offices

Analysis of the sector across the region.

Contact: Adrian Morrison, freelance writer, 0131 556 9378 or 07818 013 233, adrian.morrison@addmor.com

 

Public sector

How will public sector cuts affect the region?

Contact: Daniel Cunningham, acting deputy regional editor, 020 7911 1822, daniel.cunningham@estatesgazette.com

  

Retail

An examination of the local market

Contact: Liz Morrell, freelance writer, 01454 415509, lizmorrell@drdatamail.co.uk

 

Residential

Analysis of the sector and its effect on the local market

Contact: Karen Day, freelance writer, 07971 671 369, karen.day@dsl.pipex.com

 

Industrial

Analysis of the sector

Contact: Simon Jack, freelance writer, 01225 444 780, simon@sdjack.freeserve.co.uk

 

Market in numbers

Figures and forecasts covering offices, retail, industrial and investment

Please contact acting deputy regional editor Daniel Cunningham if you think you can supply up to date statistics and forecasts. daniel.cunningham@estatesgazette.com

  

Please contact writers by 22nd September

 

EG's regional Focuses are now available in a digital version. To see the first edition, our Scotland Focus, please go to www.estatesgazette.com/focus