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Could cash-strapped local councils consent out of town shopping centres?

By Nadia Elghamry on February 8, 2012 10:27 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
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Will out of town regional shopping centres get off the ground this year?

Most of you will probably be shouting "not a chance" at your screens but Investec's Real Estate note this morning had a few interesting thoughts as to why they might. 

Yes Portas, government and local authorities are all gunning to protect the high street which will limit development of both out of town or edge of town shopping centre but, it says, "with planning authorities under revenue pressures themselves they may be more relaxed about granting out of town retail permissions than at any time in the recent past."

Whether they really will or not is a different matter. It's one that largely depends on who ultimately wins, the Portas protect the high street versus the convert the high street to other uses argument. 

Development is thin on the ground and, beyond Land Securities in Leeds, the note points out that there's a dearth of  major UK shopping centre development. The assumption is - and it's a pretty safe one - that there won't be any more spec development announced any time soon and you just need to look at the major retail developers to see why.

Investec say Hammerson has adopted a very clear, but very risk adverse strategy. It expects them to be acquisitive rather than spec building. We've written before about its progress - or perceived lack of it - on Leeds and Sheffield. Whether it will get any further with the Whitgift centre in Croydon is also up in the air at the moment.

The other big retail developer is Land Securities. 

Continue reading Could cash-strapped local councils consent out of town shopping centres? .


Third of Stockport shops empty

By Nadia Elghamry on February 6, 2012 5:35 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
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A third of shops in Stockport are lying empty. That's the news from the Local Data Company released today in its six monthly check-in on shop vacancy. 

The Manchester town retains its top spot (or should that be bottom??) with over 30% of its shops vacant.

The LDC said that although the national rate stabilised at 14.3% there was a growing divide between the good and the bad. 

That bad is the north with the majority of towns with vacancy rates over the national average in the Midlands and the North. Nottingham, Grimbsy, Stockton, Wolverhampton, Blackburn, Walsall and Blackpool all have vacancy rates over 25%. 

Faring best was St Albans which did "well" with a vacancy rate edging towards 10%. 

Mary Portas' involvement also gets a beating. It's just one day since Portas and local government minister Grant Shapps said they will launch a competition to choose 12 Portas Pilots. Our property lot have had quite a bit to say about Portas' poking around (and not much has been complimentary). The Local Data Company's take is that her report has failed to identify any structural failure on the High Street. Vacancy rates are rising, it says, because the amount of spend the high street captures is falling (down from 49.4% in 2000 and expected to fall to 39.8% in 2014) as it comes under attack from online sales. Worringly it says that if there's less expenditure then  it may be that there are just too many shops on the high street.  

Picture by Gwydion M. Williams on Flickr


Royal London searches for Whitgift partner - the contenders

By Nadia Elghamry on December 15, 2011 11:04 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
whitgiftJPG.JPGHere on the Focus blog we thought that Westfield's stampede into Croydon wouldn't be the last word on the redevelopment of the Whitgift shopping centre. It's something we've blogged about before.

Today's news that Royal London is searching for a partner (£) for the redevelopment of the 633,000 sq ft centre confirms that. 

The cynics out there say this is a ploy by Whitgift's owners to drum up the price of their asset in an ailing market. And why wouldn't they?

Others, like one who has been a planning adviser in the town on redevelopment opportunities elsewhere, think this is unlikely. He argues that the Whitgift Trust and the centre's other owners are long term investors in the town and actually do care what happens to the development.

So how do the contenders shape up?

Well Westfield has everyone excited. It's fresh from opening Stratford City, and many think it will actually deliver. But its detractors say it's not used to dealing with complicated sites. The Olympics site was an easy chunk of land, and just look what happened with its involvement in Nottingham's Broadmarsh centre, a difficult to piece together development that Westfield worked on for over ten years before finally setting it free last month.

Hammerson already owns Centrale shopping centre directly opposite the Whitgift centre. It has stated its aspirations on this blog for a cohesive "seismic" scheme in Croydon. Its experience on Birmingham's Bullring and Bristol's Cabot Circus show that it is no stranger to putting together development partnerships and making them deliver on complex sites. Westfield has no track record of doing this in the UK.

Land Securities is also mooted. It too is used to large complex developments and has already worked with Hammerson on the Bullring shopping centre in Birmingham. At the moment it is elbow deep in delivering the redevelopment of Trinity Leeds but with an opening date of Spring 2013 it is probably on the look out for the next thing to get its teeth into.

Lend Lease is the last contender believed to be in the running. It is still smarting from it's run-in at Preston over the Tithebarn scheme. Plans were sent back to the drawing board when John Lewis walked away in November. Will it be up for another long-winded, complicated project quite so soon?

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Video: Merrion Centre, Leeds revamp

By Nadia Elghamry on December 7, 2011 10:26 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Want to see what the Merrion Centre in Leeds will look like both day and night after its £13m facelift? Town Centre Securities has just released this short video. The Yorkshire-based developers got planning permission for the revamp in November. 

£13m doesn't just fall into your lap these days but no doubt Town Centre Securities are probably worried how the centre might look when Trinity Leeds opens its doors next spring.  


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Guest post: cash boost for Scottish occupiers and landlords after Fife appeals committee overturn rates increases

By Nadia Elghamry on December 1, 2011 4:58 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
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Peter Muir, is director and head of Scottish rating with property consultants at Colliers International.

The landmark decision announced yesterday by the Fife Valuation Appeal Committee on non-domestic rates in Scotland could provide a much-needed boost to the Scottish commercial property market and could help improve cash-flow for both occupiers and landlords. 

A consortium of rating advisers, which included Colliers International, GL Hearn and BNP Paribas, successfully led evidence before the Fife Valuation Appeal Committee, on behalf of a number of landlords and occupiers at The Mercat Shopping Centre, Kirkcaldy. 

This is a milestone, in a process that may see the Committee's decision appealed by the Fife Assessor to the Lands Valuation Appeal Court in Edinburgh. 

However, if accepted or confirmed by the Court, it would in effect mean a reduction of up to 50 per cent on the values set across Scotland in 2009/10 and introduced with effect from 1 April 2010.

The implications for landlords and tenants are significant, especially from a cash-flow perspective. Occupiers will benefit from a substantially reduced rates liability, which would clearly be welcomed. A reduced rateable value will also benefit landlords while marketing vacant units, with the lower value being attractive to any interested tenants.

In the medium term, this case could see a significant increase in appeals across Scotland. Assuming any appeal is dismissed or not lodged, the decision has opened the doors to reductions, where a drop in rental value can be shown to have occurred between the revaluation date and the statutory date of 1 April 2008. Most areas granted a reduction in 2009/10 have already been appealed by agents acting for interested parties but it is unlikely these will be resolved until after the conclusion of this particular case. 

Hammerson talks about a cohesive "seismic" scheme in Croydon.

By Nadia Elghamry on November 25, 2011 1:52 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
As promised earlier in the week here's the podcast with Robin Dobson, director of UK retail development at Hammerson.

In it Hammerson talk about Westfield, working with Whitgift and how Hammerson can set itself apart from the rest of it's peer group by providing a town centre retail plan. The REIT said it would invest in Whitgift as well as areas outside of its immediate ownership to bring about a seismic change.

Tuesday's conference was awash with talk about the Whitgift and what people thought about Westfield's interest. Not all were completely complimentary. The post in full is here.

Hopes for Hammerson after Westfield wades into Whitgift, Croydon?

By Nadia Elghamry on November 23, 2011 11:15 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
IMG_1346.JPGShould we be feeling slightly sorry for Hammerson? Yesterday's Develop Croydon conference was all about Westfield.

London mayor Boris Johnson bounded on stage to tell everyone he was "delighted" that Westfield had chosen Croydon to build their third London mega mall. 

Westfield's John Burton was helicoptered in to a prime slot in the conference at the last minute. And Hammerson's director of UK retail development and a long term investor in the town Robin Dobson, was barely off stage when Schroders' Ian Mason was busy telling everyone how Westfield was the best thing to ever happen to Croydon. Mason obviously felt slightly bad, beginning his comments with "no disrespect to Hammerson".

Hammerson bought Centrale shopping centre in March, spending £100m to little fanfare. It is spending a further £50m to improve the centre, and create evening trade in the town centre. 

By comparison Westfield's commitment to Croydon is far from clear. Despite it being in exclusive talks to become a development partner on the existing Whitgift centre a storm has erupted between the complicated tangle of owners.  Westfield's agreement extends only to the Whitgift Foundation which own 25% of the centre. Last week Hammerson, CSC and Lend Lease were all linked to the scheme as the Whitgift Trust and Royal London Asset Management, which own the remaining 75%, all made their voices heard. Many agents are desperate for some clarity but there's unlikely to be any more details emerging this side of Christmas.

Continue reading Hopes for Hammerson after Westfield wades into Whitgift, Croydon?.


Co-op launches roadshow to find retail space

By Nadia Elghamry on November 16, 2011 12:15 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
5687300963_6bd0ac5bbe.jpgThe march of the supermarkets seems unstoppable.

Despite yesterday's retail figures telling us while food sales rose, they were unseasonally slow, it seems the supermarkets can't find space quick enough. The Co-operative Group is the latest to up the ante.

The ethical grocer is looking to expand across the country and, presumably isn't finding it easy. Instead of sitting on its haunches and waiting for the agents to do their bit it is launching its very own roadshow to try and winkle those units out.

The tour starts out in the South West and Wales where the retailer is hosting two events. Many more are planned for next year. 

Details of its expansion are vague. When asked the Co-op would only say it was looking to "significantly increase" the number of stores through 2012. 

In last week's magazine, in our Wales' Focus, we reported that the supermarkets were the only show in town (£). Actually it was crueler than that we said supermarkets were the only guests left at the retail party - the ones the developers didn't want to invite in the first place.

With the Co-op due to open four new stores in the South West and South Wales in just the next three weeks on top of its announcement that it's bought three more stores off Budgens that doesn't look likely to change any time soon.

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Picture by Julian Mason on Flickr

Analysis: The fallout after Tithebarn, Preston loses John Lewis

By Nadia Elghamry on November 3, 2011 9:40 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
Thumbnail image for fightaf402622ef.jpgThe news this morning that John Lewis had pulled out of £700m Tithebarn (£) regeneration scheme in Preston was a shock.

Battered and bruised, the scheme has had anything but an easy ride but is the loss of John Lewis the final blow? Developers Lend Lease are far from giving up the fight and says it will work with the council on a scaled down version of the 1.5m sq ft scheme - something that probably should have been done a while ago given the economic climate. 

More worrying now for Tithebarn is the fallout from other retailers. Many will have come in off the back of the John Lewis signing, how many will now stay without the pull of the partnership.

It also raises questions over John Lewis signings in other major developments. It's worth noting that nothing at all official has ever been hinted at and John Lewis have always expressed nothing less than their utmost commitment to other developments. But agents in Leeds have long speculated about when the partnership reaches the long-stop clause on its agreement with Hammerson  at the Eastgate Quarter. 

Add in its adventure in Croydon which ended in March 2010 when the council pulled the plug on a major retail development at Park Place anchored by John Lewis and you could understand why the retailer might be getting a bit cheesed off. 

With the partnership increasingly signing up for mini-department stores (think York's announcement yesterday) the question is how many more mega-developments will it get fed up waiting for. 

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Picture by KellBailey on Flickr

UK town centre winners and losers over last 13 years

By Stacey Meadwell on October 28, 2011 11:52 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
meat.jpgIt's a meaty 100 page report but the National Survey of Local Shopping Centre's and CBRE's new research on changes to shopping catchment populations for comparison goods may cause some indigestion. That is, if you are a developer, agent or local authority that has ever sat back and said: 'Of course that new shopping centre development can only benefit the wider area.'

Planners take note: those benefits always come at a cost. The research, which surveyed actual shopping habits over a period from 1998 to 2009, shows that even though the population of the country has grown overall (it hasn't been consistent across all parts of the UK) the major city centres lost between 0.25% and 3.51% of their comparison spend catchment population.

Glasgow is a good example or bad if you look at it that way. The city centre's catchment population growth was weak compared to other parts of the UK but was weakened further as shoppers chose to go out of town to new shopping centres: Braehead and Silverburn. 

The extension to the Buchanan Galleries shopping centre, which is by no means a certainty, would help mitigate that loss. However, I can't help thinking back to conversations with Glasgow city council's planners when they'd just given planning permission for Silverburn in which they insisted Glasgow city centre was strong enough to withstand further out of town development. Well they were right but only if you class keeping head above water as wholly positive. 

The key drivers for change in catchment shopper population are new retail, changes in transport/access and underlying population change. Mapping the trends in catchment growth post the opening of a new scheme shows that growth continues for several years after opening. 

It means that city centres like Liverpool, where Liverpool One opened in 2008, has yet to reap the benefit of a fully increased catchment. Likewise Bristol city centre and Cabot Circus. There is, however, a threshold. Once a town centre has a full range of retail on offer and there is no further new development, growth in shopper numbers reaches a plateau.

Continue reading UK town centre winners and losers over last 13 years.


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