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Retail sector not quite out of the woods yet

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Administrations have ripped giant holes through the UK's high streets.  Cushman and Wakefield's recent report A Survey of Prime Retail Locations reveals just how big those holes are.

It says the East of England appears to be the most resilient region to departing retailers (see graph below). The region has the lowest level of availability with 6.5% of units vacant. Outer London meanwhile appears blighted by them and has the highest vacancy rate with 17.4% of units availabile.

graph 1.JPGSource: Cushman & Wakefield LLP


Another cold snap hits the shops....again!

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Synovate Weathermap - March 2010.jpgWell it wasn't as bad as Synovate forecast it might be back in January but the bad weather's been blamed yet again for a bad February in the shops.

Synovate released it's February figures today - you can click on the map to see a larger version - and while it had been predicting a 6% drop back in January, the actual figures show that the UK as a whole is down 1.3% on this time last year and 3% on January.

Wales and the South west were the only region to show growth, although compared to January this was pretty marginal.

Year-on-year the biggest losers were Scotland and Northern Ireland, but despite a disastrous month for the two, where figures fell 6% on last year and 4% on January, Synovate is forecasting a very good March

Synovate now reckon it's unlikely that the Easter vacation will have enough of an impact to salvage what it calls "another month of shopper fatigue". As someone very wisely commented on this blog recently, shouldn't all that cold weather make everyone rush out and by big woolly coats and thick jumpers?

EG TV goes to the Eldon Square opening in Newcastle

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EGTV's intrepid reported Helen Roxburgh was at the opening of CSC's £170m Eldon Square revamp and extension. Shoppers were queuing from 7am to see the centre. For pictures click here to go to our launch day post.
 
ELDONMALL-4.jpegApple seems to have created the sort of new store excitement most retailers dream of. The iPod to iPhone maker attracted crowds when it opened in St David's 2 shopping centre in Cardiff last year and now the Apple-effect has hit Newcastle.

Ahead of today's opening of the £170m redevelopment and extension of Capital Shopping Centre's Eldon Square, in which Apple has taken a store, lanes were erected in anticipation of queues of shoppers. But even that was not enough with reports of queues forming just to join the queue.


Double dip recession on the High Street? Blame it on the snow

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4200649785_28fdd72fd0.JPGDecember retail sales almost gave retailers a reason to hope that an end to the recession was in sight but when we looked at the British Retail Consortium research last week it showed the worst Janauary performance for 15 years, there were mutterings of a double dip.

Research into high street footfalls released today by the Association of Town Centre Managers add little evidence to contradict this theory - its figures show that the UK as a whole, experienced a decline in footfall of 7.5% in January compared to 8% decline in the same period last year.

However, when the figures are broken down per region it shows that the recession may not be the primary cause of fewer shoppers after all. It could be the snow.



John Lewis settles for home store in Croydon

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poole john lewis home .jpgEarlier this week John Lewis announced they'd be opening a home store in Croydon.

It will be the partnership's second in the country and follows hot on the heels of the one it opened in Poole (pictured) last October. It seemed fairly obvious back then that this was a reaction to the retailer desperately wanting to expand but being thwarted by developers inability to deliver (although the partnership is far too polite to ever actually say that).

In Croydon John Lewis has patiently waited while the fireworks flew over Park Place. The 1m sq ft retail scheme collapsed last year and its future, like much of Croydon's regeneration is now under review. In this week's mag we've taken a detailed look at Croydon's plans and John Lewis says it still had "long term ambition" to set up in the town.

They announced back in 2004 that they wanted a presence in Croydon - the same time incidentally that they announced an ambition to be in Cardiff, a store that has is now open and trading.

The fact that they've invested £7.5m in the at home concept in the town and settled for 52,000 sq ft rather than the 300, 000 sq ft promised at Park Place hints that they may realise that that ambition is slipping further an further over the horizon.

Bleak forecasts for regional retail

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SYNOVATE WEATHER MAP EDITED.bmp
Click on the image for a larger version

British Land might be reporting today that its retail portfolio is at full capacity but step inside those shops and the atmosphere is more sombre.

The British Retail Consortium said this morning that retail sales had the worst January for 15 years hit by the triple whammy of cold weather, rising VAT and retailers deciding against aggressive discounting.

They are not the only ones. You can see from Synovate's weathermap that drilling down to regional level fails to brighten that picture.

When the figures came out just after Christmas there was some hope things would perk up. But Synovate reckon it's actually been the worst January for half a decade. Overall retail is down 5% on January last year and a whopping 27.5% on December.

The outlook this month is for further slippage and Synovate reckons we'll see another 6% drop by the end of February with Northern England (-1.6%) and London & the South East worst (1.5%) hit.

There is a bit of cheery news - if it can be called that. The group had been predicting Scotland and Northern Ireland would suffer a 5% slip in January. It turns out that it only dipped by 2.7% and is now predicted to put in the 'best' performance in the UK with nearly 3% growth.

Tomorrow the British Property Federation report its own figures. It's probably too much to hope for good news.


Bird's eye view of Cabot Circus shoppers

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Bristol's Cabot Circus has given the city's skyline an iconic glass canopy roof but ever wondered how landlord the Bristol Alliance keeps it clean? Well I found out on Friday when I was in the city and it certainly isn't a job for those who are nervous of heights.

4337324400_a3935d4276.JPG
The centre, which will be two years old in the Autumn, was busy with shoppers, although it was a bit quieter at Quakers Friars which is where the posher shops are.

Sadly the new development makes The Mall look, well, rather dated but there were still plenty of people around that end of Broadmead.

In this week's EG: Bedfordshire Focus

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  • Colworth Science ParkBedford

The town's Station Quarter comes under our microscope in this week's EG. The council is proposing a £130m regentation of the site but has yet to find a developer, or assemble large chunks of the site.

It's not the only large scale development trying to take flight in the town. Melanie Smith has also looked at the progress of St Modwen's Town Centre West. Last month the council extended its agreement with the developer presumably to give St Modwen some breathing room to get the 19-acre scheme going. Some are building such as Goodman and Unilever at the Colworth Science Park (pictured), although already has EEDA backing and two universities signed up. 

  • Luton

Daniel Cunningham asks whether the long awaited renaissance of the town has ground to a halt. He analyses progress at Napier Park and Butterfields business park

  • Industrial

Last year's take up is nearly half the 2008 level, and Daniel finds that when asked to name requirements agents draw a blank. That said, Canmoor which bought a portfolio of four indsutrial estates from SEGRO is looking to speculative develop. To find out why they think this is a good idea read this week's EG. 

North south divide forecast as retail footfall freezes

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Thumbnail image for Thumbnail image for Thumbnail image for Synovate_Weathermap_January2010.gifClick on View image to see larger maps.


So Britain's biggest retailer Tesco, announced its strongest sales for three years today. For it, the big freeze and ensuing panic buying to stock up on storecupboard items can't have hurt. Nor can reports on the BBC's Today programme  that because of the freezing conditions we can't get to the high street sales and, faced with being forced to stay indoors, we're splurging on contraception instead.


But for the rest of the high street it's been less cheery (think of Debenhams warning today and Marks and Spencer's performance last week).

Synovate's retail traffic weathermap (see above) shows there's been lower footfall than forecast for December as wintry weather made shopping trips more difficult meaning there were fewer early bargain hunters.

There's a definite north/south divide with footfall dropping 3% in the midlands and northern england (which covers, the north east, north west Yorkshire and the Humber). In contrast  it rose in London and the south east (4%) and Wales and the south west(nearly 3%).

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Recent Comments

  • Daniel Cunningham: Hi David, and thanks for the comment. The figures I read more
  • david abrahams: You seem to have the figs a bit jumbled. I read more
  • KS Rai: Potential occupiers at Colworth Science Park need to be aware read more
  • John Plummer: I find it extremely hard to believe, that Hereford idiots read more
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  • Chris Bond: Often when we have a cold snap the retailers say read more
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