November 2011 Archives

It might seem a little early to be thinking of MIPIM but I've learned the hard way that to get best value out of it all you should start before Christmas. And as I keep shouting at anyone who will listen, if you're Hell-bent on regenerating the UK, as we are, then now is the moment.

Inevitably, I guess, the government's housing strategy seems to have been broadly welcomed by those on the right but somewhat slammed by those with a leftish leaning. You may have seen in EGi that some Guardian columnist has criticised the proposal for a mortgage indemnity scheme as sending out "a toxic message", which seems a bit extreme (although I have some sympathy, as I was explaining yesterday). But there was not much mention of the 97% fall in affordable housing starts in the strategy (ideological or what?) so the leftish commentators have certainly got room for a grievance.  
 
And the central point remains (and sorry if this is unpopular in our industry, guys) that government is proposing to subsidise a (still) overinflated asset class. 
 

I attended the greatest "hot ticket" event last Friday morning in "London's Living Room" (sorry, but really! "London's Living Room" is  just too fey for words! Whimsical or what? But a nice space nonetheless). 

The sun was streaming into City Hall (the Thames was twinkling), onto the great and good of the housing industry out in force. Charmaine Young of St George, in the most extraordinary feat, has corralled a massive number of industry leaders to produce the most formidable book Working Together. Delivering Growth through Localism (details can be found at www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/growth-and-localism).  And it is a most assured treatment for the enlightened house builder.  She is indeed a force to be reckoned with. And everyone was there.  

We're so busy in UKR these days that it isn't until the weekend that I get to catch up with the news and commentary.  Much on Boris's Fantasy Island story (gaining traction methinks, and good for him!) and a very damning piece in the Sunday Times Magazine on One Hyde Park, which will be bleak reading for the Candy boys. 
But...did the National Trust really say that the Eurozone crisis is linked to "lax planning" one day last week in the Daily Telegraph or have I entered a parallel universe?  Absolutely surreal.  To hit out at the government's drive to lift planning restrictions by claiming that the economic plight of European nations such as Greece is linked to the fact that they have "lax planning regimes" must surely test the patience of even the most diehard Sir Bufton-Tufton Telegraph reader.  Is there no end to this obsessive behavior?  Planning regimes will be responsible for world poverty and pestilence next.  Beggars belief!  And it made me laugh so much I choked on my cup of tea.  The words "calm down dear" spring to mind, I'm afraid, forgive the sexist connotation.
Of course the big bit of news last week for us in (what is left of) the regeneration sector is the appointment of the sainted Sir Bob Kerslake to be Chief of the Civil Service. 

Dr Evans has a cloud of blue fog above his head as work on the findings of the UKR/EG Regeneration Commission continues; we work to digest what was being said - and, more importantly, the huge amount of tangible support that was being offered - and we come out in favour of a plan of action in time for the Build A Better Britain Conference on 6 December. 

I am seriously glad we are embarked on this course, we've all seen there was more bad news yesterday with the banner headlines on the million young people unemployed, and there isn't a moment to lose.
 
And this is the week that Greg Clark's (in my view, splendid) Localism Bill became law.  Technically, he may have given the Commission the exact tools to do its job.

Well! We had the first meeting of the Regeneration Commission last night. There was only the odd slightly anxious moment for the UKR team in the run up, since Damian was on a train from Manchester, which we were tracking on the internet! But he got there at one minute past 5pm (he's our just-in-time-editor) and we all relaxed. And what a hugely exhilarating affair it was. The Big Bananas all rocked up, all bushy tailed, and Up for the Cup. They seized the task in hand with alacrity, and were full to the brim with thoughts and suggestions.

We rambled at times, and sometimes it could have been likened to a box of frogs, but there was no shortage of energy, and the ideas were certainly flowing. People from both the public and the private sector are just so very frustrated about where we are, it is palpable, you can cut it with a knife. It is such a disconnect, and it is giving us the perfect conditions for real creative thinking. At one point a few of us tried to explain what success would look like. Dr Evans was characteristically urbane, but I found myself saying that it would ALL finally work for me when we didn't have a situation where 200 banks were queuing to fund a single office block in the West End of London but a steady number of folk were prepared to invest in Sunderland. Or Nottingham. Is it such a pipe dream?  
 

I have a huge respect for the CIPD and news of their report this morning that the job market is going to shrink "slowly and painfully" has to be taken seriously and is not cheering. In fact, it is somewhat despairing.
 
Thank goodness for our own response! The campaign being run by Estates Gazette and UK Regeneration - Building a Better Britain - is certainly picking up pace now. You'll have seen that Damian has announced the names of the members of the Regeneration Commission in Saturday's magazine (and a darned sexy bunch we all are too, even if I say so myself) and tonight is the inaugural meeting so I am uber-excited.

I see the CBI has jumped on the band wagon and is demanding more support for first-time buyers this morning with a mortgage indemnity device.  This is hot on the heels of Rightmove reporting that 45% of first-time buyers state they now feel "more likely to buy" since the government's FirstBuy scheme was announced in the March budget and launched in September (it allows first-time buyers to purchase a new-build property using just a 5% deposit, with a further 20% deposit loaned to them interest-free) although they were quick to point out that there is still room for improvement as "over a third of FTBs have still not heard of the scheme".

Well hats off to the CBI (and to FirstBuy come to that) for trying everything they can think of to get the economy going.  You've got to do something.  But I do wonder whether they are aiming for the right target.  Is owning a (probably poky) home the holy grail then?
Only last week, Paul Smee, the new director general of the Council of Mortgage Lenders, went into the national press (headline "House-buying dreams dashed") saying that many will spend far longer renting than they imagined and that there are millions who will never own a home.  And presumably it is in his interests, and that of his members, to talk UP the mortgage market.  And his comments were echoed by deputy governor of the Bank of England, (the excellently named) Charlie Bean, who predicted the number of homeowners will drop because lenders will stop handing out "imprudently generous" mortgages that require little or no deposit. (I don't know who these people who are handing out "imprudently generous" mortgages as I don't know anyone who can get a mortgage right now; although someone did describe Northern Rock to me as a "heroin junkie" the other day, perhaps they are the imprudent ones.)  
The average age for first time buyers has hit 39 and the logical concomitant of this is that millions of young people and families may never be able to buy their own home.  And moreover that it may not even be desirable for them to try.  Which is where the UKR mantra "don't get a mortgage, get a life" comes into play. 
My eldest (still relentlessly a kidult, despite the fact that she'll be 21) leaves university in June (where does all the time go?). And, naturally, we are giving some though as to what's next.  And to where she'll be living.  She'll probably come home for a bit (and the place will get knee deep in magazines, clothes, cosmetics, shoes, handbags, all over again; oh joy unconfined) but I think she'll want to find a place of her own fairly quickly.  With her student loan to pay back, there is simply no question of her taking out a mortgage.  You know, we are the average property owing middle class nuclear family and it is never even discussed as an option. 
I was with a hugely enlightened local authority yesterday (no I won't tell you who, nosey, oh alright then, it was Enfield) at senior level, discussing unlocking a scheme with them.  They were very receptive to the UKR model of build-to-let. They said that they wanted economically active people in their borough who would spend money locally, and employ cleaners and other local services, they cared not whether they owned or rented, they want stability and long termism, to reinforce and support their communities.  Diversifying the housing stock is the sane response to the potential toxicity of yet more youngsters being lured into mortgages that they cannot afford.  I don't want the kidult (my beautiful, glossy, bright, stunning, healthy girl) to have a millstone around her neck.  I want her to have love and laughter.  And be happy.  And I don't guess I'm THAT strange as a mother.   

 

I am just so wretchedly credulous!  An e-mail came out directly into folks' BlackBerries from the Department for Communities and Local Government yesterday on the "Growing places fund". And it was just so energetic in tone! I thought it might be the second coming! It announced a "short, high-level prospectus" to "support local infrastructure projects which unlock housing and economic growth". The £500m fund is to have three overriding objectives: to generate economic activity in the short term by addressing immediate infrastructure and site constraints and promote the delivery of jobs and housing; to allow local enterprise partnerships to prioritise the infrastructure they need, empowering them to deliver their economic strategies; and to establish sustainable revolving funds so that funding can be reinvested to unlock further development, and leverage private investment. 

The government bulletin reads: "We want to move quickly in allocating funding and getting the fund working. In order to apply for funding, local enterprise partnerships should therefore complete a short pre-qualification questionnaire committing themselves to delivering infrastructure, and return this to the CLG by 20 December. Decisions on funding will be announced in late January."

We have just seen the formal report of the Select Committee inquiry into regeneration.
 
What a disappointment. What a waste of time, money and energy. Worst of all, what a wasted opportunity.
 
We had such high hopes. After long campaigning to rescue regeneration from oblivion at the time of the election we had been pleased (admittedly we are sometimes easily pleased) to get any document out of government with "regeneration" in the title.

We've had a whirlwind few days working on the EG/UKR Building a Better Britain Regeneration Commission (not so much "the great and good", more like "the greatest and the goodest") which Damian will be announcing in the next few days.  You will be uber-impressed, I promise, and with the brain power amassed there, and we are looking to brainstorm out some very real and radical ideas.  And we won't stop at the small group of industry leaders on the Commission; we had such a warm and generous amount of support to the Build a Better Britain Campaign that the EG launched in the summer, that we will be calling for articles, blogs and position pieces from all who wish to contribute.  It is an inclusive campaign by its very nature.  Come one, come all.

And then - even more exciting - we've been putting together a scintillating line up for the Regeneration: Build a Better Britain Conference to take place at the very impressive Cannon Place in the City of London, courtesy of our good friends at Hines who are our generous host.  This could well be characterised as "the great and good meet the weird and wacky" and we will report on the findings of the Regeneration Commission and will seriously seek to seek to generate some new ideas and models for our troubled times.