Chugged around to a fine event this morning at the RICS, courtesy of Deverill Smith Recruitment. The London Olympics Forum with Sir John Armitt speaking followed by a panel with the lovely Liz Peace of the BPF; Dan Labbad, of Lend Lease and Vernon Everitt of TfL. The panel most admirably chaired by our own Damian Wild who was in his investigative journalist mode: rather searching and a bit irreverent. Damian has developed into the most comfortable and authoritative chair, it is just a joy to see him doing his stuff.
Loads more piling up in the "to read" pile. Much of it on the private rented sector (PRS). Yet again. A lot of hand-wringing going on.
There is an excellent briefing from Hamptons International, "Barriers to Institutional Investment into the UK private rented sector", which says that despite it being an objective of the UK government for some time to attract institutional investors into this market, and a number of initiatives aimed at achieving this outcome, "there has been only minimal growth with volume of investment at-scale dominated by individual buy-to-let investors".
It is a funny old world. We're slow to react, even in crisis. Despite the lack of mortgages out there, the sector has responded very poorly indeed to the changing profile, expectations and aspirations of those who rent. Despite the cognoscenti widely acknowledging that we need to diversify housing stock and introduce wholesale build-to-let, as in the US or on the Continent, the argument is really not being made. Almost all popular opinion forming agents out there (from the government in its housing strategy to almost all the commentary in the broadsheets) is still stuck in the same old holy-grail-of-home-owning groove. Unlike in the US or in continental Europe, by implication, renting is always seen as a second best option. I guess there will always be votes in rising house prices, and nobody has worked out what happens when house prices don't rise.
Rightmove has put out the most extraordinary press release, stating that their research shows there are just under 50 households selling up every day to get away from the people who live next door! Apparently over 17,000 house sellers will be moving home this year because they "don't like their neighbours". This year is expected to see a similar level of transactions as the 866,000 recorded in 2011. Even in this market!
Lessons in this for all home buyers huh! Rightmove director Miles Shipside has commented (rather wisely): "Home movers carry out lots of research before they buy their next home, including what prices are being paid in the street and how the accommodation sizes up, but the first time they meet and size up their neighbours is probably after they've moved in.
"In the current economic climate where people must work hard to progress, and even hold onto, their careers, we are increasingly looking to our homes as a sanctuary to relax and unwind. If our troubles are persisting when we get home at night due to unruly neighbours then that can present a real problem and is an understandable driver to move on." Rightmove also concludes, rather bleakly, that with transaction levels running at around half of historic norms "there could well be the same number of people stuck in their current homes and wishing they could get away!"
There was an old boy on the Piccadilly line this morning sporting a canvass bag with the very distinctive logos of Lunson Mitchenall, BCSC and Westfield prominently displayed. Made me smile. Without wishing to be rude about the old boy on the tube, I do not think he had ever attended a BCSC Conference (from which this bag almost certainly had come) and he was not exactly the ...um ...sort of person that Lunson Mitchenall, or Westfield, or the BCSC come to that, would really have wanted to be seen toting their logo around.
Wonderful day out on Wednesday to visit Derby (as a guest of Marketing Derby) at the "Derby Property and Business Investment Show" at Pride Park, the business park that came about as a result of the old City Challenge programme (which, in all truth, I found a little soulless - to say the least - but which is clearly a commercial success, with 10,000 jobs located there. Lord Heseltine should be very proud).
So Stephen "fire' 'n' brimstone" Greenhalgh has stepped down from being leader at LB Hammersmith and Fulham and takes up post as Boris's deputy mayor, with responsibility for crime and policing. Congratulations to him. He's a bloke who relishes a challenge, and he's certainly got one now! I understand that Stuart Lipton is nearly ready to submit his report on the unrest in Tottenham last summer, and I can see the two of them forming a powerful axis and some hard-hitting proposals. New thinking is desperately and urgently needed in this area, of course.
And hearty congratulations to Nick Botterill, Cllr Greenhalgh's successor, who has been conclusively elected leader by his group (although it is subject to ratification of full council on 30 May) and who now takes up what has to be one of the most important jobs in local government in the UK. Cllr Botterill himself acknowledged this in a rather sweet quote at the weekend: "It is an honour and a privilege to be nominated to be leader of not only the best council in London but the best council in Britain." What an expression of hope!
It has been my own honour and privilege to have known Nick Botterill from back in the day when we were nippers in student politics (ahhhh) albeit from differing camps (and different universities! His was just a tiny tad better), and it certainly is the case that he's a pukka geezer alright. Cllr Botterill is a very bright and a very astute man with brilliant connections, built over a couple of decades' experience in senior Conservative politics. And, rather more importantly, he has an impressive track record as a businessman in his own right; he built his own very successful business from scratch, which he later sold very well, and he has huge commercial acumen and a thorough understanding of the agendas around job creation and growth. He works hard, and is a warm human being. He is funny. And he has impeccable manners.
I dedicate this blog to Jonathan Bull Diamond (a great real estate professional, who has done so much to help establish UKR) of Jones Lang LaSalle, who has been remonstrating with me recently about not sufficiently appreciating some of our northern towns and cities.
Well! As we all now know, since my last post, nine out of ten cities have said No to a directly elected mayor. Shortly after I pressed "send", as predicted, Sheffield and Newcastle promptly announced their No vote. And Birmingham soon followed, also a resounding No. This will probably be a relief to new Brum Leader, Sir Albert Bore, who would have faced the prospect of standing for selection for mayor for Labour against some serious heavy hitters (wasn't in his game plan really!). Only Bristol bucked the trend, voting Yes for a mayor with an election now scheduled to be held in November (hot favourite there is George Ferguson, of course, which should please the design luvvies and of course he is a local guy, and far from new to Bristol local politics).
This wholesale resistance to the holy grail of elected mayors is a bit of a blow for the "city chatterati" who have, in time-honoured tradition, blamed the government for not communicating the benefits clearly enough. The most common comment is "a missed opportunity". But was it?
Keeping close to matters in Nottingham (as I do) I can confirm that the turnout there was less than a quarter of the electorate. And the most cited bone of contention was one of resourcing; a mayoral office would be an extra expense (although this had been robustly disputed by Mr Pickles) in a city already well-led. The official statement from the City Council on Friday reads: "The outcome means that the council will continue to run as it already was under the leader and cabinet model. Nottingham City Council had agreed a policy position ahead of the referendum that it was opposed to the introduction of an Elected Mayor as it would not represent value for money City Council Leader, Councillor Jon Collins, has said: 'This was a referendum imposed on us by the Coalition Government which the majority of local people clearly did not agree with. I am pleased with this outcome because an Elected Mayor would have been expensive and unnecessary. This outcome shows that local people recognise we have a system in Nottingham which is working well for them and the city'."
There have been a few reasons to be cheerful over the past couple of days. Not serious green shoots you understand, just a few glimmers of hope. I'm just so bloody desperate I nearly put the bunting out when I saw that yesterday's Leader in the Daily Telegraph contained the word "regeneration". Admittedly, it was in the context of a vote-for-Boris puff and doesn't really count, but still, beggars can't be choosers, I think you'll agree. I immediately chalked it up as progress.
And I was thrilled to learn that my old friend (and sometime sparring partner) Graham King from Westminster council has won the Alan Cherry Award for Placemaking at the Alan Cherry Debate this year. A much-deserved accolade for our bearded man-mountain, sorry that should have read "institution in the property industry". I have a long standing personal connection (aka bone to pick) with Graham King. As architect of the PSPA (Paddington Special Policy Area), Graham was instrumental in causing me a certain amount of trouble and strife during six years of my own career. But the bloke's a genius (Paul Finch once brilliantly described him as "a delight"), and our creative tension was all to great effect at Paddington, I think you'll agree. And it was very good to see him receive this fine tribute, awarded in the name of the great Alan Cherry, that very fine placemaker. My hearty congratulations to him.
My blog on the economy provoked a bit of a reaction yesterday. Ross Sturley wrote to me (at 6am today!) to commend the approach, saying: "It leaves aside the question around how local people in 'regeneration opportunity' areas tend to lack the skills to create the local jobs that a creative/technology-led economy might generate, which I'm going to leave aside too, but someone needs to take on. Still, I like the "work (near) where you live" angle, which chimes with Terry Farrell's 21st century high street stuff, with the way the Beirut economy has recreated itself after much war which left commercial property unusable (people work on wifi in cafes), and with my refrain about high streets being about more than just shopping. Flexible workspace near local centres, flexible enough to accommodate one-man-and-his-laptop, a small distributor, a specialist confectioner and so on - micro companies - could put jobs into local centres. Just a thought".
Well... it's a good thought, Ross. A very good thought. And the UKR Business Plan (our audacious aspiration to deliver 20,000 homes by 2020) intends to do just that. Homes with jobs as closely associated with them as can be achieved (although as Dr Evans keeps observing, with some amusement, we're not going down the road of tied cottages!). And there is much interest in our homes-with-economic-growth formula. I am delighted to be addressing an august gathering of the Association of Chief Estates Surveyors on this very subject next week (10 May) in Barnsley, and I hope to see a goodly few of you there. It's a long time since I've been to Barnsley.
