Happy New Year, Hearts, Happy New Year. I don't know about you guys, but I've had the usual sluggish start after the festivities. Now, regular readers will know I don't do resolutions, as I generally fall at the first hurdle. And I try not to do predictions. Yeah right.
On this last I can't really help myself, I am nothing if not a campaigner. And, in an attempt to crank it up for the new year, here goes - drum roll for portentous announcement - I predict 2013 will be... the year of disruptive innovation.
Ooooh! Disruptive innovation! Sooooooo exciting. What IS the silly old trout talking about? Well, let me try to explain: I mean that the new economy will be entirely different. Particularly in respect of property.
Take the housing property market, for example. I had a huge and very positive response to my last blog before Christmas saying that 2013 could be the breakthrough year for the private rented sector (PRS) and how very badly we needed something transformational to happen.
Well I hit a nerve there. And news of shrinking supply comes thick and fast. Just in the last few days the Policy Exchange has issued (another) report claiming that councils are planning to build 272,720 fewer homes since the coalition government announced the end of the regional spatial strategies.
I simply cannot think of any comparison, in terms of long-term disconnect between supply and demand, than in the UK housing industry. It is palpable. Enough to make any grown woman cry.
Then look at the retail property market, the converse problem applies: too many empty units, not enough occupiers. As the ever-great Anthony Slumbers comments on Twitter today: "John Lewis does 25% of business online. What happens to property requirements if 25% of the whole retail market follows?". And this neatly sums up the problem with the health of the retail sector. And, in turn, that of our town centres. People need to wake up.
But I would argue that all is not lost for the innovative disruptor. Far from it. If you can shape up and look carefully at what is going on around you, you can adapt and survive. Successful modern town centres will not be purely predicated on retail, they will be predicated on the experience.
Those attempting to "manage" town centres should be turning to innovative thinkers like Malcolm Allan of PlaceMatters who will tell you that experience master planning is what should happen before we let spatial master planners and architects anywhere near redesigning things in town centres or existing shopping centres.
Basically, you need to work out what should be the most attractive mix of experiences that consumers want, those that might induce them to come to town centres and shopping centres to enjoy in "congregation". This then helps to determine the retail "plus" mix. The key, of course, is in the "plus" mix. What do real people actually want?
Disruptive innovation, for the retail and residential property industries at least, means taking the (radical, at least for us) step of thinking like almost all other industries. Stop thinking about your rent and your yield. Start thinking about your consumer. Who are your people? And what will make your people return to you again and again? If you can get that right, the money will follow.
Come to think of it, is disruptive innovation really that disruptive, after all?
Take the housing property market, for example. I had a huge and very positive response to my last blog before Christmas saying that 2013 could be the breakthrough year for the private rented sector (PRS) and how very badly we needed something transformational to happen.
Well I hit a nerve there. And news of shrinking supply comes thick and fast. Just in the last few days the Policy Exchange has issued (another) report claiming that councils are planning to build 272,720 fewer homes since the coalition government announced the end of the regional spatial strategies.
I simply cannot think of any comparison, in terms of long-term disconnect between supply and demand, than in the UK housing industry. It is palpable. Enough to make any grown woman cry.
Then look at the retail property market, the converse problem applies: too many empty units, not enough occupiers. As the ever-great Anthony Slumbers comments on Twitter today: "John Lewis does 25% of business online. What happens to property requirements if 25% of the whole retail market follows?". And this neatly sums up the problem with the health of the retail sector. And, in turn, that of our town centres. People need to wake up.
But I would argue that all is not lost for the innovative disruptor. Far from it. If you can shape up and look carefully at what is going on around you, you can adapt and survive. Successful modern town centres will not be purely predicated on retail, they will be predicated on the experience.
Those attempting to "manage" town centres should be turning to innovative thinkers like Malcolm Allan of PlaceMatters who will tell you that experience master planning is what should happen before we let spatial master planners and architects anywhere near redesigning things in town centres or existing shopping centres.
Basically, you need to work out what should be the most attractive mix of experiences that consumers want, those that might induce them to come to town centres and shopping centres to enjoy in "congregation". This then helps to determine the retail "plus" mix. The key, of course, is in the "plus" mix. What do real people actually want?
Disruptive innovation, for the retail and residential property industries at least, means taking the (radical, at least for us) step of thinking like almost all other industries. Stop thinking about your rent and your yield. Start thinking about your consumer. Who are your people? And what will make your people return to you again and again? If you can get that right, the money will follow.
Come to think of it, is disruptive innovation really that disruptive, after all?
Jackie
Good one - spot on!
Happy New Year!
Mike