The Pint of Milk Test

Student developers set to cash in on Olympics

By Paul Wellman on May 15, 2012 3:59 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

When site visiting and in the write up of site visits, we have to estimate using our built up knowledge and experience of when developments will complete or indeed when they started. When it comes to student accommodation developments though it becomes very easy; as you can bet that completion will be some time around late August, early September, just in time for the new academic year to start.

However, on recent site visits to Whitechapel and Mile End, two very sizeable student developments are in the process of completing with just internal snagging left to do; way earlier than normally expected.

The Curve, by Chancerygate Group - 339 units

Scape by INTO University Partnership - 641 units

My first thought, was that with both of these schemes being in a great East London location and not far from the Olympic Park, then the developers have gone all out to complete them to serve the added demand which will be generated, in the form of a hotel or something similar.

However, on further inspection through Tower Hamlets it looks as though they will be occupied by 'officials and other persons associated with the Olympic and Paralympic Games'. Here's the planning application from Tower Hamlets.

I've no idea how much each developer will be making from this arrangement but I'm sure it will be a nice little earner for them and definitely worth the speedy construction...

Waterloo set to be transformed

By Paul Wellman on May 10, 2012 1:28 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Waterloo has a lot going for it, with the busiest railway station in the UK and arguably one of the best public spaces of the capital in the South Bank. However the bit in between just doesn't really work, or at least it could be much better indeed. Still, the area has improved dramatically over the past few decades clearing its reputation of 'cardboard' city.

At the same time, commercial areas have built up around London rail terminals such as Liverpool Street, Paddington and are currently in the process of being built around King's Cross and Victoria (albeit already established) whereas Waterloo seems to have been left behind. With the busiest UK terminus and the catchment area of commuters from south-west London and Surrey, the regenerative potential is huge.

Two huge developments if they get the go-ahead are likely to change all that and transform Waterloo, with its much needed commercial space. However, with the success of both London's prime resi sector and the South Bank making the area a much desirable place to live, residential plans also feature heavily in both. These are:

Elizabeth House (JV - Chelsfield and London & Regional)

Shell Centre (JV - Qatari Diar and Canary Wharf)

Starting with Elizabeth House, plans have been on the cards for a while with numerous plans being vetoed, the latest of which was dubbed 'The 3 ugly sisters' by opponents to the scheme. Below is a render of the scheme, the main tower in the background to the left behind the Shell tower. More images can be found here.

This is where the scheme really works for me though, that 'bit in-between' the station and the Eye. Most of the building will be lifted up off the ground to provide much needed public realm and a new entrance/exit to the station, where hopefully one day the now-redundant Eurostar platforms will come back in to use.

This is how the space currently looks, which in truth is criminal for being next to somewhere which distributes a footfall of over 80 million people per year.

The redeveloped Shell Centre, which is a couple of years behind Elizabeth House in the development pipeline will transform the area once again a few years later. Plans have yet to be submitted for this site though, with consultation still on going. A number of new buildings will be included, however I must stress the plans shown below are by no means indicative of the final masterplan, which is still in development. These sketches have been produced as part of the consultation process to stimulate feedback in consultation workshops.

And if you want to get involved and have your say then there is still time, with a two-day drop-in exhibition and workshop session next week on York Road (16th and 17th / May). For more information go to the schemes website here.

People fearful of the views being ruined when looking through a giant ferris wheel should remember that the public realm, really will make up for all that, with much improved linkages through both sites, as shown in the render below (Shell centre) with the arches opened up and brought back in to use.

Talking about improvements to public realm, whatever happened to Waterloo City Square???

LRR subscribers can view the Elizabeth House building record here.

LRR subscribers can view the Shell Centre building record here.

Property lookalikes

By Paul Wellman on May 8, 2012 12:06 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Like probably most in our industry, last week The Apprentice for me got relegated from prime time viewing and Channel Four's Shard documentary instead took its place. Throughout the show though I couldn't help but think how much property developer Irvine Seller looked like actor Will Ferrell.

Can anyone think of any other property lookalikes within our industry?

Back to a more serious note; this weekend Seller Properties said it had received interest in the apartments, which are expected to fetch between £30m - £50m each. No offers have yet been made though, with them officially going on the market this summer. It's probably wise to hold them back until after the Olympics anyway.

LOD subscribers can view the building record here.

LRR subscribers can view the building record here.

Video: Jason Hawkes 'London from the air'

By Paul Wellman on April 26, 2012 11:25 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

We've mentioned Jason Hawkes a few times on this blog before. If you're not familiar with his work, then do check him out. Normally working through the medium of photography, he is known for his aerial shots using helicopters. This time though he's produced video footage of London from the air which is truly breathtaking. Much of it focuses on The Shard, which now dominates the skyline.

Shard lovers will also be interested in a Channel 4 documentary showing next Wednesday, which describes itself as 'an examination of the challenges and achievements of building Western Europe's tallest tower in a densely populated part of London'. See here for the synopsis.

London aerial 1 from JasonHawkes on Vimeo.

Housing starts and who to believe?

By Paul Wellman on April 25, 2012 2:00 PM | 1 Comment | No TrackBacks

Over the past couple of months a figure of 56 affordable housing starts across the whole of London has been bandied about for the 6 months between 1 April 2011 and 30 September 2011. The figure was released by the HCA towards the end of last year (link) and specifically looks at the number of starts, by its definition the point at which the contractor takes possession of the site, enabled under the new Affordable Homes Programme, which replaced the National Affordable Housing Programme. So far, so good. However, to use this figure as the total number of affordable starts in the capital for the period is just plain wrong. Despite this, however, the story was quickly seized upon by journalists, which solicited an equally brisk response from us (blog post) back in November. The figures just didn't seem right.

Those watching the Mayoral debate on BBC1 on Sunday night would have seen Brian Paddick lambast Boris Johnson using the same figure of 56 social starts. He also made a point of saying "these aren't my figures, these are official government statistics" and he's not wrong, they are. Who can blame those in favour of a change of Mayoral reign to use these 'official' figures against Boris and those in charge of delivering affordable housing in the capital? (just like the Red Brick, here)

So if the figure isn't 56, what is it? To be absolutely sure you would have to visit every new-build residential development that had planning consent in the whole of London to see if it had indeed started. Just to be on the safe side you'd probably take a picture of it as proof of physical construction start. And that is exactly what we do. Here at LRR we track every residential development of 5 units or more in inner London and 10 units or more in outer London. We monitor them all from the planning stage right up until completion with sales and marketing information. We site visit every single scheme whether it's private, social, shared ownership or mixed-tenure to see when construction starts and completes and photograph the evidence and we'll do that at least twice a year. All this is stored in a database that has been updated daily since 1996. To get the accurate figure for social starts in the capital between 1 April 2011 and 30 September 2011 took us 5 seconds. That search revealed that a total of 144 schemes (not units) with a social housing element started construction between those dates, making the real figure around ~~4,500.~~ 4,200

Further proof comes from the following large developments we visited, (with the social element in brackets). All of these started between April and September last year.

Silwood Estate (146), Greenwich Reach (344), New Festival Quarter (148), Canning Town - East City Point (227), Waterside Park (131), Barham Park Estate (187), King's Cross Central (260).

What does this all mean? Well our comprehensive data is unmatched. We're independent and comment on the market objectively. All our site visiting over the course of the year complies a picture of the market. What's started, what's completed and what's halted? Who's building and where are they building? Where are people buying? Where are developers struggling to sell and which RSL's are bulk buying unsold stock? These are all questions, plus many, many more that are answered by the Red Book; the London Residential Research yearly publication on residential development in London, across all 33 boroughs.

For more information on the Red Book and to request an executive summary go here.

The Red Book launches on May 15, 2012 with a breakfast briefing, looking at the key headlines from the market. This is also when subscribers (free) and anyone else (willing to part cash) can get their hands on a copy. Register your attendance here.

..................................................................................................................................

Please note: For clarity, just to drill down a bit further:

LRR says - between April and September 2011 (inclusive) 4,200 social units started construction in the capital. By social units we mean both intermediate housing and social rented accommodation. The preferred split in these two types of affordable housing is 70:30 favouring social rent. Developers will sometimes push for a greater percentage of intermediate housing and our figures show that the actual achieved split is closer to 65:35. Applying this to the overall figure of 4,200 social starts and we get a final figure of:

4,200 overall social starts between April and September 2011 (inclusive)

Of those:

2,730 units were for social rent
1,470 units were for intermediate housing (shared ownership)

London council tenants off to Stoke

By Daniel Smith on April 25, 2012 8:29 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

In the news at present is the furore regarding Newham Council's attempt to offload more than 500 tenants away from the borough because its unable to find them private accommodation.

The story has made the headlines, including a BBC report aired last night. Inside Housing has obtained a copy of a letter sent to one Housing Association in Stoke - click here to read.

But Newham is not the only London council to embark on this process - click here to read more.

Planning simplified

By Paul Wellman on April 19, 2012 12:00 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

We've all heard about the recent NPPF, which was published just a few weeks ago and came in to play immediately. The updated version from the original draft was also largely welcomed across a wide range of sectors. The main argument for the changes were for planning to become more streamlined; the removal of multiple documents in the form of Planning Policy Statements and Planning Policy Guidance in to one single document of just 50 pages.

What does this mean though for housing and specifically housing in London? Well yesterday I went along to the good people at the NLA for an event on these changes titled 'NPPF: Planning for growth' to try and find out. Guest speakers ranged from government departments and representatives from local authorities (Westminster, Camden, Enfield), along with developers (Berkeley, Derwent) and consultants/architects (AECOM, DPP, GL Hearn, Drivers Jonas Deloitte, bptw, Berwin Leighton Paisner) as well as CABE and English Heritage.

The event kicked off with a keynote address from Steve Quartermain; Chief Planner at the DCLG who spoke at length on what has probably been the most contentious aspect, that of the 'presumption in favour of sustainable development'. He stated that the 'presumption', "is positive and designed to make things happen" but also stressed point 14, which states permission will be granted, 'unless any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits', not a charter then to concrete over the countryside...

Another point mentioned throughout the day was that the NPPF is designed to bring about a 'change in mindset', with local communities deciding on how they want their areas to develop. The 2011 Localism Act designed with bottom-up principles at its heart, is also the main theme within the NPPF. Quartermain stated it is 'essentially about working to a plan'. It is now in the communities' hands to set their local plans and to work to them. 'Local plans are the cornerstone of the system'.

Bob Robinson of DPP highlighted that 25 out of the 33 London boroughs had Core Strategy's in place and being worked to (local plans). Two however are still working to pre-2004 UDPs. Other councils across the country are still using plans from 1997 apparently. When asked about government targets for house building Quartermain stated that there wasn't any. It's not as if previous targets had in any way worked anyway is it? It's up to local planning authorities to set their own targets within local plans. What sustainable development means is also for each LPA to decide, which makes sense. Every area or community is different to the next.

Another point which features in the 50 page document is viability. What does this mean? Well it means less affordable housing probably. Point 173 states that requirements such as affordable housing should be taken into account of the normal cost of development to 'provide competitive returns to a willing land owner and willing developer to enable the development to be deliverable'. Speakers on the day mentioned the inflexibility of CIL being another argument for developers to build less affordable housing.

Essentially however, what I took most from the event is that the NPPF will have a limited impact upon London. Most LDAs already have pro-growth local plans in place. The new National Planning Policy Framework is a material consideration to their own local plans, designed to put greater pressure on councils to keep them up-to-date. All of this however remains just words. The new NPPF has been designed to bring more clarity over the long-term which most agree probably will. However in the short-term don't be surprised if things slow up with more decision making done by appeal. Developers will test the boundaries of what the new policies mean and how they are to be interpreted. These decisions are then likely to set precedents.

Just this Tuesday in fact, Councillors in Bermondsey refused a payday loan scheme recommended for approval by planners, with the interpretation of the NPPF apparently at the centre of the 1-hour discussion. Cllr Mark Gettleson declared: "Someone has to test the NPPF and it might as well be us." (london-se1.co.uk)

Historic Mill sold

By John on April 16, 2012 12:21 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

The former tidal mill near Chichester has sold this morning, for £62,000. Blogged about earlier this week it's a Grade II listed building overlooking Birdham Pool Marina. This represents a pound per square foot value of just over £16. Safe to assume a fair bit of work's required to make it habitable.

Canada Water tower rises

By Paul Wellman on April 12, 2012 3:21 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

In the past 3 or 4 years Canada Water has changed a lot. The regeneration of the area looks set to continue too, with much more of it still to be developed. The wider Canada Water / Surrey Quays area was also recently included in the 2011 London Plan as an 'area for intensification', not a bad piece of planning policy if you happen to sit on any large swathes of land in the vicinity.

Anyway, the main bulk of development currently under construction is that situated around Canada Water tube station by Barratt and British Land. Sitting opposite the recently completed new library is Barratt's Ontario Point, the only new building with any real height; 26 storeys in fact. Below (left) is taken from my site visit, going back a couple of weeks now and below (right) what it will look like, taken from JLL.

Now up to around 5 storeys, the concrete frame should rise fairly swiftly. Here's another view of the development, this time from inside Canada Water tube station.

This really is a great location, one stop to the east you have Canary Wharf, a couple to the west and you have London Bridge, a few more and you're on to Green Park, Bond Street and the rest of the west end. The old East London line, now the overground also runs north to south, with Shoreditch and soon Clapham Junction a short train ride away. It's not surprising then that the overall scheme has sold pretty well. This tower element has yet to go on the market however; at least in the UK that is.

Here's the view from the communal roof terrace...

Picture from JLL

And another from an apartment looking east towards Canary Wharf...

Picture from JLL.

Expect Ontario Point to sell well and for good value too. This is Canada Water, SE16 and south of the river so a lot of investors won't even consider it. This is still an area on the rise and so probably not a bad long term investment. To view the LRR building record, click through here.

Canary Wharf looks to increase residential offering within estate

By Paul Wellman on April 5, 2012 4:05 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Only last month I wrote a blog titled 'More residential towers set for the Isle of Dogs' (view here), with news of the City Pride pub (being demolished) and Dollar Bay (being permitted) making up the main piece. It now appears there could be more.

Last week Canary Wharf confirmed within their year end financial statement (here, page 8) that alterations to their large development sites at Newfoundland and Heron Quays West are now being considered.

Newfoundland to the west of the estate opposite the Riverside South site has a 37-storey 200,000sq ft permission with 150 hotel beds and 78 serviced apartments planned. Now though, Canary Wharf say "an alternative, all residential scheme is being considered".

As well as that, just over the road at Heron Quays West, where three interlinked buildings are permitted for 1.3m sq ft of offices, they say "a number of alternative development options, both for office and also mixed office and residential use, are now being considered".

Above left is the Canary Wharf estate at present. Above right is what it could develop into in the future. The buildings in blue have permission, with much of that taken up by Wood Wharf, of which has plans for a large residential presence.

The development of whole commercial estates was defiantly a 80's, 90's thing. 21st Century planning calls for much more mixed-use development if estates are to thrive and grow, which now looks like happening. Obviously the continued rise in prise for high-spec, quality housing in the capital, along with good sales at nearby Pan Peninsula and Landmark have also probably helped.

The Pint of Milk Test

Student developers set to cash in on Olympics

Waterloo set to be transformed

Property lookalikes

Video: Jason Hawkes 'London from the air'

Housing starts and who to believe?

London council tenants off to Stoke

Planning simplified

Historic Mill sold

Canada Water tower rises

Canary Wharf looks to increase residential offering within estate

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