Brum - out of the woods?

At first glance, one could be forgiven for thinking that the economic downturn has wreaked havoc on Birmingham's 2009 office take-up figures. With take-up nearly a third down in 2009 than in the previous year, things on the surface, are looking pretty grim.

But all is not as it appears. Yes, total office take up in the city has (unsurprisingly) dropped considerably in 2009 according to the latest report from the Birmingham Office Market Forum (concensus research from the city's key agents) - to 657,280 sq ft, reflecting a significant drop from 2008's record high of nearly 1m sq ft (959,317 sq ft).

But if we look at 2007's pre-recession total take-up figures for the city they stand at 662,207 sq ft - a mere 4,927 sq ft more than last year's.

The spike in 2008's figures can be attributed to major prelets secured at Ballymore's Snow Hill development to KPMG and Barclays.

However, 2009's figure had a spike of its own - the total was buoyed by the public sector including Birmingham City Council's requirement for its proposed 196,000 sq ft new offices at Birmingham Science Park in Aston. Take this out of the equation and the figure would look quite different at 461,280 sq ft, although not as desperate as many had thought.

So much for the past, what of the future? With some local commentators sitting squarely on the fence, it was refreshing, if not cheering, to see King Sturge's Property Predictions for 2010 which it launched in London this morning, Sadly for the region, KS flagged Birmingham as one of the UK centres most likely to struggle with rents this year due to the oversupply of office space and its reliance on the public sector.

Of course, I'll will be watching to see if this is indeed the case and will keep you posted. Keep checking back to this blog...