March 2012 Archives

Guest Blogger: Bruce Dear, Head of London Real Estate, Eversheds LLP.

"The Sick Man of Europe", Turkey's tag line in the Nineteenth Century. I remember mugging that up for A Level. Well, rather like Benjamin Button, Turkey has got healthier and younger, as the rest of Europe has got older.

Istanbul shopping centres and logistics look very interesting for real estate investors. Turkey has a young and growing population, with money to spend. The biggest mall in the world is in Istanbul.

As the meeting point of the Bosphorus, Balkans and Middle East there is an obvious logistics and light industrial play. Competition is also not as fierce as in the Far East. UK real estate players should take a closer look at Turkey. The Sick Man has become a Healthy Adolescent.

Guest Blogger: Nicky Richmond, managing partner, Brecher

I suspect there's another, altogether different MIPIM to the one that I do. One where I go to some of conference events and actually learn something about the industry in a slightly more formal way. Today, for example, I'd like to go to Estates Gazette's Editor's Business Breakfast, which is on the London Stand at 9 am. I haven't been invited, as it happens, although I suspect that the fact that I'm doing this blog might help. Problem is I have a breakfast with a representative of some family wealth offices, so I just can't.

And then later whilst I can take or leave "Dancing with the devil, creating a new model of place leadership with the private sector: the Coventry story" which I file under "special interest," I would really like to go to City of London Corporation - Global Capital Flows into the City of London" at 11 am and then to the "Commercial Real Estate Finance Markets - Recovery or Retreat" (at 4 pm in the Le Corbusier Room if you're interested) where there are speakers from Pramerica, Oaktree Capital and the Global Head of Real Estate at HSBC. Now that's got to be interesting.

Guest Blogger: Bruce Dear, Head of London Real Estate, Eversheds LLP.

Well done to Michael Buchanan and Lara Cole, who have completed the cycle2cannes event. Particular congratulations to Michael, who cycled every centimetre of the 1500 kilometre stage event. As I get giddy going upstairs, I am hugely impressed. Unsurprisingly, Michael looks very skinny and red faced (sadly, I can only do the red face!).

I'm delighted to have been invited to the SEGRO lunch at the Radission Blu with 360-spectacular panoramic views of the aqua marine sea.

SEGRO have a strong focus on the German logistics and light industrial market and one of their key investment agent's explains why: "We had our crisis ten years ago and we timed it well! The rest of the world was still booming, which made it easier for us. We could continue to export through our downturn. That gave us a platform to reform our labour laws, to make them flexible and fit for growth, and to repair our distressed property funds without being mired in an international downturn."

Germany's powerful mixed economy makes it a property hot zone-for retail, offices and logistics. Whereas some national property markets are arguably only one city, so in global market terms UK=London, France=Paris and Italy= Milan and so on.

Mipim 2012: Building a Better Britain breakfast talks Crime, Decline and Property

At the VPS and Estates Gazette breakfast held at Mipim this morning a panel of experts discussed Crime, Decline and Property.

EG's regional editor  Stacey Meadwell talked to Mike Kiely, director of planning at Croydon council; John Jones, head of Property Management at GVA and VPS' head of sales Gavin Pringle, to get their views on how securing assets also means securing a future and delivering regeneration in the UK

For more read the Focus Blog

Guest blogger: Stuart Fraser, Policy Chairman, City of London Corporation

It's clear that this year's MIPIM has been marked by a far more positive mindset than the recent past. And thankfully this sunnier disposition amongst delegates, firms and cities has finally translated into a change in the weather for the better.

So as I prepare to return to London tomorrow morning it is clear to me that confidence in the global economy is gradually improving. This comes after massive injections of liquidity into the financial system by central banks across the world, which will ultimately impact upon asset prices.

Of course, the London property market has been resilient since the crisis. We've seen a 'flight to quality' in the City that reflects the fact London remains the leading international financial centre.

Indeed, research just completed for the City of London Corporation by Jones Lang LaSalle supports this by showing the high levels of global capital flows going into London's property market. Whether it is Russian, Chinese, or other investors there is a huge appetite to get into the London market.

The completion later this year of the Shard of Glass, the tallest building in London and the European Union, will help to reshape the capital's skyline and showcase how global capital flows - Qatari in this case - can benefit both sides through shared expertise and job creation.

And whilst in the City we have rigorous conservation policies to preserve the unique heritage of the Square Mile, we work hard with developers to make major developments happen.
 
So I look forward to seeing what comes from our discussions in MIPIM as we strive to ensure London remains fit for purpose when it comes to serving businesses, residents, shoppers, tourists and others. We are the most international city in the world and this week has provided the perfect platform to sell the best we have to offer to influential figures from all corners of the globe.

Guest blogger: Bruce Dear, Head of London Real Estate, Eversheds LLP.

"Looks more like Clacton than the Cote d'Azur." I'm on the TGV rolling into Cannes and the sky is (well) English coloured and (feel it!) the air is thermal vest cold.

But by the time of my first morning coffee with an institutional client (new funds and investments) at Le Claridge, off the Croisette (don't be fooled by the name-more Le Greasy Cuillere than cordon bleu), the sky is an uplifting Mediterranean blue.

The air is thick with Hang Over Busting fried food and humming conversations at crammed tables: I over hear ideas for hotels in receivership on the Liffey and HQ offices in the Thames Valley. This week the market is made by these hundreds of individual encounters.

What does the market feel like in Cannes? Optimism first. The European banks have just filled their liquidity buckets at the European Central Bank's fire hydrant. They took €530 billion in the ECB's last round of LTRO (long term refinancing operation). They have used the money to pay off their debts, buy government stock and a narrow range of corporate bonds and to improve their capital position. For the moment, the possibility of a European banking failure has been hugely reduced and the Eurozone has a breathing space to make the necessary political and structural reforms.   

Guest blogger: Nicky Richmond, managing partner, Brecher

Again, Manchester. I actually come from Manchester and I wasn't expecting so much of my home town to come to me, in Cannes. First off, the Manchester-sponsored "Funding the Future" lunch debate with keynote speaker Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs, billed as "the man who gave BRICS to the world". I really wanted to hear this. I tried, I honestly did, but there were no seats, it was lunchtime and we hadn't eaten.

Wandering into the Bunker, it was still fairly quiet and the lunchtime exodus meant that you could have a good look at the stands. Obviously, we were going to end up at the London Pavilion but, out of a sense of duty and not least to justify the unbelievable cost of the MIPIM pass, we walked round the rest of it, or at least the central aisles, trying to work out how much people had spent.

  Guest Blogger: Stuart Fraser, Policy Chairman, City of London Corporation

Tomorrow morning I will be picking up an award that recognises London is the city to be in - not just in 2012 but for the foreseeable future.
 This is an exciting time for the capital as the eyes of the world turn to us with the Diamond Jubilee looming. That's before I even mention the small matter of the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. 
 It's fitting therefore that London has achieved record status at the prestigious fDI Intelligence awards, securing eight of the top places including the European Cities of the Future category. I look forward to picking this up on behalf of London & Partners.

    Guest Blogger: Nicky Richmond, managing partner, Brecher

At least it's stopped raining. No one likes the rain at MIPIM. It means you have to go into the Exhibition Hall, universally known as the Bunker, and that just wouldn't do.  Ah, the Bunker. You can tell who's up and who's down by what is plastered to the front of it. I'm looking at a combination of Cushman & Wakefield, The Future Starts in Skolkovo (your guess is as good as mine) and the Qatar Urban Forum. I can also see a tiny little bit of Manchester and a little corner of Stockholm. You see, it's very international here.

Reading the MIPIM NEWS with my coffee this morning, it looks like the Russians are getting all the coverage. They've certainly spent the money. The headline is "Success story in Russia - overcoming Stereotypes" - with all the news coming out of the Russian elections, I expect they have their work cut out for them.

You have to look quite hard in the magazine for anything about the UK, notwithstanding that it is still one of the most active and established property markets.

When I first came to MIPIM, 16 years ago, I'd say that it was 80 percent British. It may actually have been more than that. A reflection of the - as then- fairly sleepy European property market, the Brits dominated. So did the banks. I regularly used to host lunches (I use the term loosely - they often drifted into dinners) for representatives of 20 or so banks. They were fairly raucous affairs and no business was actually done - it was all about the networking. Even if bankers are allowed to come to MIPIM these days (and few are) they will be keeping a fairly low profile and certainly won't be hosting any large parties on the beach, or hiring any yachts. It wouldn't look good in the Daily Mail.

But there is money here, and I'm here to talk to it. You may have heard many people say that MIPIM is better now; that the people down here actually want to do business and that it's more serious. I'd agree with that. After my various meetings with the money during the day, I'm jointly hosting a dinner with GVA, at which there will be represented borrower, lender, credit, mezz provider, lawyer and valuer. All of us want to know who else is there because time is precious and this year, we mean business.

EG's regional editor Stacey Meadwell:

Those who opted to take the train to MIPIM have almost challenged the Cycle to Cannes lot for speed in getting to the south of France.
This year's two hour leg to Paris turned into four and a half hours as a trackside fire halted Eurostar services then pushed trains on to slow local routes.
Still passengers got plenty of time to admire the snowy countryside then sleet and rain en route.
Once in Paris it was a mad dash to across the city to get seats on the few southbound train left.
As I write team EG is Toulon-bound where a connecting train is expected to drop us in Cannes at 10pm. But we are the lucky ones some, I read on Twitter, will only make it as far as Marseille tonight and have to bunker down there until the morning.
Let's just hope the sun is shining in the morning to put all the travel troubles in the shade

Guest blogger: Stuart Fraser, Policy Chairman, City of London Corporation

I hear the weather in Cannes took a turn decidedly for the worse yesterday as sunshine gave way to thunderstorms. Let's hope it's not a sign of things to come as I prepare to leave London later today for my fourth and final appearance at MIPIM as policy chairman at the City of London Corporation.
 
The outlook for the property market and economy remains decidedly mixed but London - and particularly the Square Mile - continues to be resilient even in these tough times.  I'm looking forward to hearing the views of Sir Edward Lister, Deputy Mayor of London, during his keynote speech at the London Stand this afternoon - although he has a tough act to follow after Boris Johnson last year!