October 2011 Archives

NSLSP Summary: Out-of-town on the rise...

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CBRE have recently published their National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns (NSLSP) report, which indicates that although town centres still retain the majority of the population for comparison goods shopping, out-of-town destinations are slowly eating a larger chunk of the pie.

Analysing the period from 1998-2009, in which the population of the U.K. grew by 3.3 million, CBRE have identified which comparison goods trading locations have improved, and which have struggled out of over 3,000 destinations. 

Town centres have had their comparative market share reduced by around 4% in that time, despite the 1.64% increase in shopping population size. Out-of-town destinations, by contrast, now have an additional 9.6% of the population choosing them for comparison goods shopping - representing an increase in market share of an astounding 61%.

The survey cites three main causes of this paradigm shift, namely: retail mix change as a result of development activity; accessibility change brought about by transport innovations, and underlying population change. 

There is also an indication of a market squeeze, in which the top destinations will thrive, while others succumb to unfavourable market conditions. Of the new space developed in this period, 65% was in the top 200 locations, whereas 40% of other trading zones saw a loss of 4 million shoppers - the equivalent of £13 billion worth of trade disappearing.

Going forward, CBRE are adamant that fuel costs will have a more profound impact on retail than the internet. Shoppers currently tend to make fewer trips to larger centres but as fuel prices rise, we might see more and more affluent households deciding to stay at home to shop - following the lead of poorer households, who make up the majority of multi-channel consumers.

For an in-depth regional look at the winners and losers, see here.

Déjà vu at the Burlington Arcade

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The brewing row between the owners and tenants of the Burlington Arcade on Piccadilly, W1, has a distinct sense of déjà vu about it.

 

More than 34,000 people backed a petition in January 2010 calling for action after 150 traders were ejected from Portobello Market, W11, in favour of an All Saints store.

 

They argued that the changes to Lipka's Arcade, undertaken by landlord Warren Todd, threatened the character of one of the capital's top tourist attractions and accused him of jeopardising the market in pursuit of high rents.

 

Fast forward more than a year and a half, and the same argument is now being thrashed out under the arches of the Grade II-listed arcade in Piccadilly.

 

Meyer Bergman and Thor Equities, the owners of the Burlington Arcade, are threatening to replace boutique retailers, some of whom have traded there for more than 50 years, with glitzy brands such as Jimmy Choo. They have also hired New York-based retail guru Peter Marino, famed for his black leather cap and sunglasses combo, to head up a reported £2.5m makeover of the arcade.

 

Daniel Bexfield, who has run a silver shop in the Burlington Arcade for 13 years, has branded the joint venture's plans for the arcade as "Dubai style" and Susanna Lovis, a specialist in Victorian and Edwardian jewellery, warns that it risks being turned into another Westfield mall.

 

As the mood at the arcade becomes increasingly sour and Bexfield's protest gathers momentum - film director Michael Winner recently waded in - it's hard to see an easy and peaceful solution to this familiar dispute.

 

New UK Shopping Centre Opens!....

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...Is not a headline that will be written again until Land Securities' Trinity Leeds swings open its doors in Spring 2013, so really we ought to be celebrating a triumphant opening for Parkway in Newbury today.

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Standard Life's 475,000 sq ft development completes the triumvirate of malls to open in the UK this year, following Westfield Stratford City at the Olympic Site, and Wakefield's Trinity Walk. A rain-soaked gaggle of shoppers adorned the streets his lunchtime as a fanfare procession through the town marked the occasion; Newbury's residents certainly keen to show pride in their new landmark retail destination.

As with many new retail schemes, it has not been plain-sailing for all concerned with Parkway. A CPO enquiry as a result of protests from, among others, Marks and Spencer, delayed the appointment of a developer by several months. A piling rig collapsed during the early stages of construction, and the underground car park has been constantly referred to as a flood risk. Now, the main concern for the owners will be that Parkway is a little bit behind the other two new schemes in terms of getting retailers signed up.

Westfield Stratford was 95% committed when it opened, with Trinity Walk achieving a 90% occupancy rate when trading began in May. Parkway sits at around the 80% let mark, albeit with more space at a late stage in negotiations. With uptake not as high as expected, the developers may be anxiously glaring at the calendar, waiting for the footfall-driving John Lewis at Home to open in 2012, and make the remaining units a more palatable prospect for retailers.

Still, a positive ending is a necessity as the long arduous road to 2013 and the opening of Trinity Leeds begins. The scheme has managed to fortify itself against the deepest, darkest recession for some time; and has still attracted some quality names. For that, it ought to be heavily commended.
The opening of House of Fraser's new click-and-collect store in Aberdeen today could be significant for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it is a major department store and leading high street retailer sacrificing 98,500 sq ft from their average unit size to engage fully with multi-channel retail. Secondly, and most importantly, it represents what could very well be the future of how customers and retailers interact.

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The emphasis is heavily on creating a relaxed atmosphere in a fashion boutique/internet cafe hybrid in which patrons can have a leisurely browse House of Fraser's extensive range of products on computers, interactive screens and iPads; all whilst enjoying free coffee and sitting in chairs comfortable enough to snooze in.

The logic behind this concept is that customers now wish to shop in-store as they would at home. Combining a homely, relaxing atmosphere with the highest calibre technology to produce a unique shopping experience is what House of Fraser hope will catapult them ahead of their rivals as the battle for profit margins intensifies in a now rather brutal retail market. Fashion retailer Oasis also seems to buy into this thinking after having opened its very own new concept store just off Oxford Street this week. Oasis also cite customer experience as being the reason for the move - abolishing queues for tills by introducing customised mobile iPads to process transactions throughout the store. The message seems to be clear: embrace technology or fall behind.

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We have also recently seen Ocado trial a shopping wall at One New Change, and as technology develops into as important a part of retail as bricks and mortar, what price a Shanghai-style subway shopping wall adorning Holborn tube station in the near future? It is certainly pleasing to see such a propensity from retailers to engage with technology, rather than fear it. Amazon have also entered the multi-channel ballpit, installing lockers at the St. Paul's mall, among other places, wherein customers can collect their purchases.

For House of Fraser, this will undoubtedly be one of their most scrutinised stores in terms of performance - not just by HoF bosses, but by retailers nationwide. Following their lead, we may well see other department stores, retailers and possibly even supermarkets rolling out identikit store designs as click-and-collect becomes the definitive way in which consumers re-align their loyalties to brands post-recession. Looking even further ahead, this may well reflect how town centres and shopping malls are designed, as the impact of the reduction in necessary floorspace is felt by landlords and developers alike.







Oddbins: Back on the High Street

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By popular demand (and following a re-negotiation of terms with creditors), back comes Oddbins to the high street this week - re-opening its premises in "key locations", which essentially means London, Scotland and various other urban centres in which it would be foolish not to retain a presence. A remarkable turnaround, given the multitude of problems experienced by the retailer only six or seven months ago.

Re-opened, re-branded and re-invigorated; the wine merchant will now exclusively supply a selection of wines currently unavailable in supermarkets - rubber-stamping the intention from new buyer EFB Group to turn focus away from competing on price with those larger stores, and instead provide better quality wines at the optimum price point. The niche-finding (or re-finding) strategy has been identified by EFB as the only viable way in which Oddbins can hope to survive.

The roll-out will be accompanied by a fresh internal design, and an in-store 'price-guessing' challenge, during which customers will have a chance to taste three wines, and then estimate the price at which Oddbins should sell. The intention behind this initiative is to engage in discussion with patrons, and the results of the challenge will be taken into account when it comes to pricing the bottles.

Far be it from me to cast aspersions on the integrity of Oddbins' customers during the challenge, which will take place from the 20th - 23rd of October, but if indeed the results are to be taken seriously - one would imagine that any savvy participant wouldn't stray too far from the national average price - a rather surprising £4.84. 

Oddbins claims that it has a strong, loyal customer base, who will be tremendously pleased to see the chain back on their high streets. I suppose we will have to wait and see just how strong that relationship really is, as Oddbins may soon discover that brand loyalty was one of the first casualties of the recession - and that the squeeze on real incomes and rock-bottom consumer confidence has largely divested the public of their price insensitivity.

RPI rise threatens fragile retail

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The retail property sector is set for another bruising as the Office for National Statistics' confirmed this morning that the retail prices index rose to 5.6% in September - the highest annual inflation rate for over 20 years.

 

The BRC estimates that the new RPI figure threatens to land the retail sector with a £350m business rates increase next April since the uniform business rate is set taking into account the RPI inflation rate at September 2011.

 

This of course comes at a time when retailers are already grappling with an increase in VAT, low bank lending levels and fragile consumer confidence.

 

BCSC has been quick to pounce, warning that high levels of business rates will impact retailers' expansion plans. It will in turn also affect the viability of retail development, which is dependent on securing retailers and acceptable levels of rental income.

 

BCSC, in its letter to local government minister Bob Neill today, writes: "As occupiers' business rates liability continues to increase, a greater share of occupancy costs will be absorbed by rates, eroding potential rental values and therefore the viability of proposed developments."

 

It is evidently time for the government to start paying closer attention to its independent review of the UK high street, led by sharp-tongued retail guru Mary Portas, which is identifying the level of business rates as a thorn in the retail property sector's side.

Bargoed's Big Idea Becomes a Reality

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Construction work on the retail element of the Bargoed Town Centre Regeneration project is set to begin next month, with Simons Group having recently exchanged the development agreement with Caerphilly Council on the £24 million scheme.

There will no doubt be stories this weekend that will grab more attention in South Wales, but once any short-term economic boost delivered by a victorious World Cup campaign fizzles out; the region would still be festering in dire economic circumstances.

The development has already delivered a new £25 million by-pass known as Angel Way to the East of the town centre, and a modern transport hub in northern Bargoed. The retail plateau is undoubtedly the crux of the project, and will provide a new Morrison's superstore measuring 56,000 sq ft and 7 supplementary retail units ranging from 1,700 sq ft to 5,250 sq ft. Perhaps the figure that will matter most to locals, however, is the provision of an estimated 300 new jobs in an area that suffered enormously following the recession, and is still lagging behind most areas of the U.K. in its recovery.

This video was produced in January 2011, highlighting the areas of the town to benefit from the scheme. Below are artists' impressions of how the new retail plateau will look:

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I believe the key to the success of the scheme so far is it's viability. EGi reported today on a retail development site in Newcastle which has stalled, then re-started, and then stalled again - before being bought outright this year....and then stalling. The partnership of Simons and the Council, by contrast, have carefully tailored the project to the needs of Bargoed. It is a clear example of rejecting over-ambition in favour of realism - hopefully this will provide a template from which other developers can take inspiration.

For more info on the scheme, visit the official site here.

Sainsbury's foray into online entertainment

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Interesting news this morning that Sainsbury's has acquired online entertainment company Global Media Vault for £1m. It is a very clear sign of the supermarket's ambitions to embrace the booming online market. And rightly so if the statistics are anything to go by. The UK entertainment market is currently worth £7.3bn and the online market is expected to double in value by 2015.

 

Sainsbury's acquisition follows the launch of Sainsbury's Entertainment website last November. GMV's digital database already includes over three million music, film and game assets for the UK market, all of which can be browsed, purchased and distributed via web, mobile, TV and kiosk applications.

Fragile high street snapshot

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A raft of retailers provided a snapshot of the current fragile retail economy in their trading updates last week and it wasn't especially comforting.

Supermarket giant Tesco revealed a 0.5% fall in first-half like-for-like sales - excluding VAT and petrol - in the UK. Its rival Sainsbury's posted a 1.9% rise in like-for-like sales, which excluded petrol but not VAT, for the first six months of the financial year.

Elsewhere on the high street, Thorntons' like-for-like sales dropped 7.8% in the 14 weeks to 1 October and homewares retailer Dunelm saw its like-for-like sales growth fall 2% over almost the same period. Mothercare too reported a like-for-like slump of 9.6% over 12 weeks with a notable drop in the past four weeks.

However, despite the gloomy sales figures, the retail sector has not been hit by any significant administrations following the September rent quarter day. With some respite on the insolvency front, preparations are now firmly under way for what is hoped to be a boost in sales activity for retailers in the run up to Christmas.

It is also worth flagging up the recent Indian summer experienced in the UK recently, which had mixed results on footfall. According to Springboard's National High Street Index, which monitors over 85 UK towns and cities, footfall on the first Saturday of October, when the heatwave hit, dropped 7.1% year-on-year. Conversely, footfall surged on Sunday by 11.7%.

Diane Wehrle, research director at Springboard, said: "The last week of September, which included the week of unusually hot weather, represented the only week in the month in which footfall increased from last year (+2.4%) - in all other weeks during September footfall fell from last year.  The result for the last week of the month is much more positive than the result for the same week in 2010, when footfall fell by -4.5%."

 

Brewery Square: On Film

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Brewery Square are clearly delighted with Wagamamas having signed for space at their scheme - the official website features an enormous splash confirming the deal, reported this week on EGi.

The website also features this wonderful construction timelapse film, which I thoroughly enjoyed, although you'll want to put your headphones in before taking a look...

Google's High Street Debut

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I was going to begin this entry with a rather vitriolic: "You know those annoying Google pop-ups you always get - well now they're in physical store form!!" - but I thought that might be a tad mean-spirited; and anyway - I quite like some of those pop-ups. I once saw one advertising a package "Home-Gym and Sports Car" deal for only £12.50. Nice.

Alas, you won't find any gymnasium equipment or Lotus cars at Google's first outlet, which opened last weekend in the PC World store on Tottenham Court Road. What you will find however, is Google's Chromebook Laptop; the item which underpins the thinking behind the move into the high street.

80% of laptop sales occur in stores; and one can understand why by examining the internet's sales technique in evidence here, employing an aggressive dark blue 'BUY NOW' button to strong-arm the fragile public into a purchase. Contrast that with an in-store experience wherein customers can familiarise themselves with what is still regarded as a luxury product, and receive well-informed advice before taking the plunge.

The store design features the colours present in Google's chrome logo:

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My initial impression of the layout is that, true to form, they have gone for a slick, modern concept with the curved tables and backless square seats. Drawing too many comparisons with Apple's stores is rather unfair after a first try - they have ten years on Google in terms of designing and operating physical stores; but it's clear that there is a slight element of attempted emulation here - and in my view, it doesn't quite land. 

I don't know why - but when I first saw the design, I was reminded of the children's areas in places like DFS where I used to sit playing with Lego while my parents thrashed out a payment plan on their three-piece suite. Ironically, nowadays the children probably have Chromebooks to entertain them in such places - maybe that was the inspiration behind it? 

Aesthetics aside, the idea is a smart (albeit belated) move from Google given the statistics - and with another similar store set to open in Lakeside this Friday, I wouldn't be surprised to see a great many more of these "Chromezones" popping up in the very near future. 

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