February 2012 Archives

Supermarkets: Good, Bad, Or just too convenient?

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EGi this week reported some good news for the supermarket investment market via a report from IPD; which indicated that it was one of the fastest-growing commercial property sectors. This is the first time that IPD has grouped supermarkets in an investment category of their own when conducting its retail investment research - and much can be read into the fact that supermarkets appear to represent a much less risky prospect for investors than other retail assets, as well as offering a higher return than other prospective investments.

Good news, then, for anyone looking to dive into supermarket ownership - and also for any of the big four seeking to boost their expansion trail by divesting themselves of any owner-occupied premises - but what might this mean for the wider retail market?

Henry Porter launched a scathing attack on supermarkets on Sunday - calling for a 'Leveson enquiry for supermarkets' to attempt to prevent these retail behemoths from, as he sees it, fattening our children, ruining town centres, causing illiteracy, encouraging alcoholism and re-introducing a form of slave labour in order to boost profits.

So, to anyone of a similar persuasion to Porter, the IPD report should make for worrying reading; as with a dearth of truly healthy investment options currently available - it could foreshadow another unstoppable extension of the power wielded by superstores.

A common argument in defence of supermarket proliferation is that we, the consumers, are complicit in their expansion by opting to give in to their lower prices and higher levels of convenience - but what happens when those factors have such force that they destroy all existing competition, removing the element of choice entirely?

Testimony from Barnstaple last year tells a typical and all-too-often heard story of how the fanfares that greeted the arrival of a new Tesco Extra were soon drowned out by the 'high street closures' klaxon just months down the line; and residents have now taken matters into their own hands - petitioning North Devon Council to stop any further supermarkets coming to the town. They are not alone, with dozens of campaigns nationwide now actively seeking to discourage supermarkets from operating in their area.

Whilst I wouldn't go as far as Porter has, and lay the blame a disproportionate amount of the world's ills squarely at the door of Tesco-et-al; the Government may well want to look a little more closely at this issue, and possibly stymie the growth of supermarkets in certain areas in order to give town centres a better chance of recovery. 

Bookies vs Portas - who's your money on?

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This month has seen a response from the betting industry to the assertion made by Mary Portas that gaming outlets were a 'blight on the high street', and that their proliferation is creating unsightly gambling 'clusters' on struggling retail hotspots.

The perception that December's High Street Review gave was that betting shops are wandering unbidden into troubled towns, sneaking into premises once occupied by banks, building societies and estate agents in order to fleece the community of its cash. Senior industry figures have now hit back, claiming that betting shops are taking space that would otherwise have been vacant, and that their contribution to both local and nationwide economies should dissipate any anti-gambling rancour.

The figures stack up for the gambling industry - employing an average of five workers per store, and paying an average of £10,000 annually in business rates as they contribute around £3 billion to the UK economy every year. With this in mind, it's surely no bad thing to put them in a separate use class, creating a level of authority at council level to decide whether or not there are valid enough economic factors to give approval to a gambling venue in their community.

Research from the Local Government Association suggests that the issue is not one of isolated resentment of betting shops, or indeed the idea of gambling, but rather an uneasiness within communities about how simple it appears to be for a new bookmaker to appear in their town centre. The survey also implies that the public perceive betting shops as being similar to sex stores, fast-food takeaways and tanning salons in that they are all 'blights' on the high street.

In my view, creating a new use class for gambling outlets could help to de-construct this negative perception, and shift public focus towards the economic benefits that a bookmakers can have on a local economy, outlined as they would be in any 'change of use' application. This may then result in more demand-led outlets nationwide, as communities look to the gambling industry to provide their high streets with a shot in the arm - when necessary.

I can understand why the Association for British Bookmakers is a little bent out of shape over the possibility of putting their stores in a separate use class; and sees it as a deliberate piece of restrictive policy against them. However, I think in time they might well find there is more to be gained from contributing to communities with the blessing of councils and the public than forcing an unwanted presence into retail centres through scattergun, unrestrained expansion. 

KPMG: Mobile Technology to Decide High Street 'Battle'

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KPMG have this week published research which indicates that retailers worldwide are beginning to come round to the view that effective implementation of mobile technology is eclipsing more traditional ways of generating business.

The research, compiled following a survey of 350 senior financial officers of global retailers and consumer brands, also indicates that a decrease in annual revenue is widely expected, with opinion varying from country to country on how far mobile technology can help to maximise sales.

The U.K. respondents appear to be the least enthused about the ability of mobile technology to deliver a much-needed boost to retail sales, with only 36% of the Britons surveyed stating that yes; the technology will drastically help improve sales over the next two years - compared with 46% in Germany, 44% in America, and 50% in India

Although it does indicate a lukewarm leaning towards the benefits of mobile transactions, those percentages seem incredibly low. Especially when considering further insight by KPMG published in September last year, which indicated that over 90% of financial services executives believed mobile payments were 'yet to go mainstream'. This is in spite of the fact that an estimated $3 billion worth of transactions were processed via mobiles last year - four times the amount for 2010.

What figures, then, can we expect when mobile transactions really take off? We could be looking at astronomical numbers - and it's then even more alarming to consider that less than four out of ten retail CFOs in this country remain, at present, unconvinced of its merits. Perhaps it's down to an inherent mistrust of new technologies, and 'Big Brother' paranoia thwarting appropriate progress in the fusion between the old and the new.

Do we, then, continue with the slow progression towards (and begrudging acceptance of) a coalescence of modern technology and traditional retail values; or do we do away with the myopia, and give mobile technology the chance it deserves in the immediate future to help resurrect a broken retail market?

I'd rather hope that more than 36% of retailers, agents and landlords in the U.K. would choose the latter.

Portas: 'Right Diagnosis; Wrong Prescription'.

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....At least that's the view that has been offered today by Phil Wrigley of LXB Retail and Majestic Wines, who has insisted that if the government were to adhere to the recommendations of Mary Portas' review, the High Street would be condemned to continue to plunge further into a 'Death Spiral', taking already ailing town centres with it.

Wrigley's own recommendation for our beloved urban centres to avoid this grim fate is to encourage increased conversion of high street premises to housing, which echoes some in-depth research conducted by think tank 'The Policy Exchange' in March last year. 

Both Wrigley and the Policy Exchange have championed the idea of increasing flexibility within the current planning structure to allow properties to under go a quicker and easier transition, if required, from Class A to Class C. The common criticism of the current planning system is that councils' obsession with 'maintaining the town centre', or 'supporting economic regeneration', means that they occasionally force buildings to stay within a certain use class, often refusing a change of use until the premises have been vacant for a number of years.

The reason for this is that councils consider planning applications within the confines of local development frameworks (LDF) set out roughly every decade to outline how they hope the area to develop. Change-of-use applications which appear out-of-line with the LDF are seldom given approval, no matter what their viability, with councils more inclined to agree to a short term solution which fits in with their development plan.

I don't particularly share Wrigley's overriding negativity about the recommendations Portas outlined in December last year; but his view, substantiated by the think tank, represents almost the exact opposite way that Portas could have gone with her suggestions. It is a view that was perhaps too radical to suggest to the current government, who have already relaxed change-of-use laws pertaining to office buildings, with so far less-than-resounding success.

Is Portas, as Wrigley puts it, "propping up a failing sector", or is she attempting to exacerbate a latent desire within the British public to return to thriving town centres, thereby resisting the temptation to consign traditional high streets to the history books? What is certain is that the government's implementation of any of Portas' recommendations will be put under intense scrutiny, as the queue of people waiting to say 'I told you so' gets longer by the day.

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