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Trinity Leeds prepares for lift-off

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Today brings the end of a barren spell in the UK retail market that has not been experienced for some time. All eyes are on Yorkshire as Land Securities delivers its mammoth 1,000,000 sq ft Trinity Leeds - some 555 days after Boris Johnson cut the ribbon at Westfield Stratford.

Such a drought in the development pipeline would have surely been unthinkable back in the halcyon days of 2008 - a year which saw Westfield London and Grosvenor's Liverpool One amongst twelve new malls to open in the UK.

The drop down to 'zero' in 2012 can be attributed to an overwhelming litany of factors - economic difficulties for both retailers and developers, a lack of adequate funding, anchor-store pull-outs, 're-evaluation' of planning proposals, refusal of planning proposals, decreasing consumer confidence and the mall-crushing behemoth of on-line retail are only a handful. Essentially, the story is that the fall in new retail development over the past five years is one of the starkest representations of what the global economic crisis has done to this country.

Nonetheless, today should be a celebration of UK retail and its ever-increasing adaptability to difficult circumstances. There have been a lot of noises coming from Land Securities about Trinity Leeds being seen as an 'experience' destination - rather than simply a place to shop. This could ultimately determine the level of the mall's success, as developers increasingly look towards leisure and catering services to help boost footfall and tempt customers away from the convenience of shopping on the internet.

The opening comes at a time when UK retail desperately needs a shot in the arm. Yesterday's budget left the calls to re-think the business rate revaluation delay unanswered, and retailers facing a £175 million additional rates bill in April. This comes off the back of a dismal January which saw three major retail chains falling into administration, causing 10,000 jobs to be put at immediate risk as around 1,000 stores faced the axe.

All that can be put to one side today, as Land Securities can enjoy the fruit of a very long, and at times arduous, labour. Having downed-tools in 2009, you would have got extremely long odds on them opening a 90%-let scheme in March 2013, complete with the first Everyman cinema in the north of the country, in addition to a string of highly-sought-after retailers and catering outlets. It's a huge credit to them, and to Leeds as a whole, that they have done so.

'Portas Pilot' Entries - A Few Favourites...

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Housing & Local Government Minister Grant Shapps tweeted yesterday that the successful bids for town centre regeneration funds via the 'Portas Pilot' scheme will be announced at the end of the month.

With hundreds of entries reportedly clamouring for the cash, I had a look at a few of the video entries to get an impression of how the town teams were going about pitching to the government.

With an extremely broad creative brief, it is of little surprise that each submission differs from the last - and as such, it's extremely difficult to judge which ones will be successful. There are some which unimaginatively point the camera at vacant stores with the word 'Help' emblazoned across the screen, and others who have clearly tried to stand out by engaging the town in wacky dance routines in various (former) retail hotspots.

The ones which I found most appealing came from towns such as St. Austell, Warwick, Grantham and Aylsham; as they seemed to have more of a focus on what their towns specifically require in order to regain the vitality of ages past - and already appear to have a plan as to how best use the government cash.  

There were also interesting entries from Ripon and St. Ives, who have focused their regeneration plans around unique heritage sites, and embraced the potential of tourism to help boost town centre footfall.

The most bizarre entry comes from Exmouth; wherein a teenage girl is apparently beamed down from space, and then escorted around the town by someone looking suspiciously like her sister, before concluding that the townsfolk are spending entirely too much time larking about by the beach, and not enough on their 'quite nice' high street, before she's whisked back into the orbit. The tagline, 'bring them here, keep them here", is altogether more sinister than was surely intended.

Also, if you'd like to see perhaps the worst impression of Mary Portas ever performed - check out Tamworth's effort

Some common themes mentioned in almost every entry are the failure of councils to come up with innovative town-centre-saving solutions over a number of years (or even decades); the cost of town centre parking or the lack thereof; proliferation of supermarkets & out-of-town developments causing town centres to falter, and the impact that on-line shopping has had on the high street. These, of course, are aspects that the government and Ms. Portas are already painfully aware of.

One wonders how the winners will eventually be chosen. Do the video entries carry as much weight as the application form? If so, does 'view count' get factored into the final reckoning? Are CACI ratings consulted in order to determine the most deserving of town centre investment? 

We'll find out in a couple of weeks - but for now, I'll champion Warwick's entry one last time...local bias at it's best!

Budget 2012: The Impact on Retail

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The national headlines belonged to the scrapping of the 50p tax rate, and the government's curious decision to alienate everyone over 65 - but there were some elements of yesterday's budget which will have some interesting implications for the retail market over the next couple of years.

Perhaps the aspect mentioned most often by retail experts is over something that the budget didn't do, rather than that which it did. With no respite coming from the Chancellor over the impending 5.6% increase in business rates next month, the cost base for retailers will increase over the next year - and will be in no way offset by inflation, or the cut in corporation tax.

Documents released yesterday indicate that government revenue will be around £592 billion will be raised in the 2012/13 financial year - up £3 billion on 2011/12; and the increase in business rates accounts for a third of this figure.

The decision to relax Sunday trading laws for eight weeks over the summer seems almost like a piece of opportunism, rather than a carefully thought-out piece of legislation, and has gained mixed reviews since its announcement. CBRE's Jonathan de Mello called it a 'timely boost', and that any other decision would represent a 'missed opportunity'; whilst the Association of Convenience Stores have labelled it 'devastating', as it will cost local shops around £480 million in lost trade.

Below-inflation minimum wage increases for adults and freezing the youth rates will certainly be music to the ears of under-pressure retailers; and the increase in personal tax allowances should eventually help consumer spend. The question is whether this increase is coming soon enough - as by April 2013, consumers will have had another year of purse-string-tightening, and the requisite shift in consumer behaviour will be a lot more difficult to engender.

This budget rather gives an impression of the government leaving the retail market in the doldrums for the time being, and rather hoping that the one-time cash injection provided by the Olympic summer can stave off total catastrophe until the population in general has more disposable income in 2013 and 2014. There are, of course, longer term issues over the market which need to be addressed - but the chance for a shot in the arm has gone, and retailers are now left to make the best of what they can out of 2012.


For more from EGi on the Budget - see the Focus Blog for a summary on the impact on regions & click here for a summary of all the major budget stories.

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