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The Local Government Association published a survey earlier this month which tackles the issue of high street 'clustering', which I have blogged about before on here, and once again it is of little surprise to see such things heavily lamented by council members. What I find particularly interesting about this survey, however, is the type of premises that councillors feel will help most to regenerate struggling high streets.

The officers rate books and clothes stores, restaurants, and local butchers and bakers highest with over 90% of those surveyed claiming these types of outlets were the most important elements needed to help restore the future vitality of Britain's high streets. Surprisingly, however, only 68% seemed to think that leisure elements such as cinemas and bowling alleys were of importance to ensuring town centre recovery.

The results seem to largely ignore the fact that supermarkets have largely made the traditional high street model redundant via a combination of favourable parking provision and unbeatable prices over a sustained period of time, perhaps pointing to a degree of romanticism. This feeling doesn't appear to be shared by developers and shopping centre owners nationwide.

Legal & General's Castle Place Market in Trowbridge; Harbourside Developments' Telford Shopping Centre; Capital Shopping Centres' Potteries Centre in Stoke and Key Properties' Kingsmead Centre in Farnborough have all received permission since the start of 2012 for either a cinema-led extension, or a reconfiguration of existing space to accommodate a cinema. Not to mention the plans submitted in February by Hammerson to develop almost 90,000 sq ft of leisure and restaurant space at Centrale, in Croydon.

Whilst these are only a handful of examples, they represent the major retail developers' recognition of how beneficial leisure space can be in a town centre scheme. On the surface, cinemas and bowling alleys, to use the survey's examples, are footfall-drivers and dwell-time boosters; but, crucially, they also offer at least an imitation of the social aspect of town centre shopping that has perhaps been lost through the proliferation of supermarkets.

If town centres are indeed to recover to the level we want them to, they have to provide something that is unattainable in out-of-town schemes or even on-line. This, regrettably, puts an arrow in the idea that the traditional high-street model can be revived, but it gives license to look towards a model that can ensure future success by driving shoppers into the centre of towns to engage in activities besides shopping.

Developers seem to have cottoned on to this notion - and perhaps it's time councils did too.
It's telling that the responses from the British Retail Consortium and BCSC to yesterday's new planning guidelines were altogether more positive than those given less than a week ago following the budget. 

The main section of the significantly-condensed planning document which would concern retailers and developers is that which deals with the future vitality of town centres, and how planning guidelines can assist the market in making vibrant, competitive, successful centres a reality; and not just a celebrity's dream.

It was pleasing to see the document make reference to the individuality of town centres, and recognise that local authorities need to govern what constitutes sustainable development in their area. The authorities can define the extent of their town centres, and develop their area plans around these parameters. This in turn will mean a greater power to refuse permission to schemes which are seen as being detrimental to the progress of urban recovery, and thereafter, development.

In strengthening the Town Centre First mechanism, the framework has certainly put faith in the long-term ability of struggling town centres to recover - but in terms of shopping and retail, the question remains whether the problems are too endemic for a planning reform to fix. Several planning hurdles may have been removed for town centre retail schemes from a development point of view - but can consumer behaviour change enough to make them 'viable' and 'sustainable'? And how many retailers will survive until the benefits of the guidelines are felt?

The public often give their backing to retail-led regeneration schemes in town centres, only to then either vote with their wallet and shop on-line, or to drive to the out-of-town retail park, where the stores are larger and the parking free. There also needs to be a little more help given to retailers in the battle to pay rent (an opportunity missed in the budget); as there is little point in making the delivery of a gleaming new project easier if there is nobody there to fill it.

The next couple of years will be of interest - as we observe just how quickly the reforms catch on, and how many schemes are turned down due to failing the requisite impact assessments. Only then might we see retailers, developers and, crucially, shoppers turn their eye towards the town centre rather than away from it. The NPPF may be seen as the first step towards town centre recovery - but make no mistake - there's a marathon still to run.

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Supermarkets: Good, Bad, Or just too convenient?

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EGi this week reported some good news for the supermarket investment market via a report from IPD; which indicated that it was one of the fastest-growing commercial property sectors. This is the first time that IPD has grouped supermarkets in an investment category of their own when conducting its retail investment research - and much can be read into the fact that supermarkets appear to represent a much less risky prospect for investors than other retail assets, as well as offering a higher return than other prospective investments.

Good news, then, for anyone looking to dive into supermarket ownership - and also for any of the big four seeking to boost their expansion trail by divesting themselves of any owner-occupied premises - but what might this mean for the wider retail market?

Henry Porter launched a scathing attack on supermarkets on Sunday - calling for a 'Leveson enquiry for supermarkets' to attempt to prevent these retail behemoths from, as he sees it, fattening our children, ruining town centres, causing illiteracy, encouraging alcoholism and re-introducing a form of slave labour in order to boost profits.

So, to anyone of a similar persuasion to Porter, the IPD report should make for worrying reading; as with a dearth of truly healthy investment options currently available - it could foreshadow another unstoppable extension of the power wielded by superstores.

A common argument in defence of supermarket proliferation is that we, the consumers, are complicit in their expansion by opting to give in to their lower prices and higher levels of convenience - but what happens when those factors have such force that they destroy all existing competition, removing the element of choice entirely?

Testimony from Barnstaple last year tells a typical and all-too-often heard story of how the fanfares that greeted the arrival of a new Tesco Extra were soon drowned out by the 'high street closures' klaxon just months down the line; and residents have now taken matters into their own hands - petitioning North Devon Council to stop any further supermarkets coming to the town. They are not alone, with dozens of campaigns nationwide now actively seeking to discourage supermarkets from operating in their area.

Whilst I wouldn't go as far as Porter has, and lay the blame a disproportionate amount of the world's ills squarely at the door of Tesco-et-al; the Government may well want to look a little more closely at this issue, and possibly stymie the growth of supermarkets in certain areas in order to give town centres a better chance of recovery. 

Burlington Arcade restoration begins

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Regular readers of our retail blog will recall an earlier entry on the brewing row between owners and tenants of the Burlington Arcade on Piccadilly, W1, over plans to breath new life into the building.

Meyer Bergman, the European real estate firm that bought the Grade II-listed arcade in October 2010, has now revealed the first pictures of proposed new restoration works following the receipt of Planning and Listed Building Consent.

 

 

 

Burlington Arcade 1.JPGWork has now started and the first phase, which will focus on restoring the upper elements of the arcade, is expected to be complete by the end of April. It involves the installation of up-lighting and the re-painting of the painted elements in the original ecru white colour used in 1819 when the arcade first opened. 

Work is being undertaken out of trading hours to allow shopkeepers to remain open for business throughout the process.

 

 

 

Burlington Arcade 2.JPGMarkus Meijer, chief executive of Meyer Bergman, Burlington Arcade's co-owner, said: "We expect these works to be complete in time for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee celebrations and I am particularly excited that, once complete, we will have a view not seen for over 100 years and possibly not since Queen Victoria celebrated her Diamond Jubilee in 1897."

 

Big Brother Debate Sparks Unnecessary Fuss

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No, not the "celebrity" one.

There has been some furore recently emanating from human rights groups over the 'revelation' that shoppers' behavioural patterns are being tracked within retail schemes via their mobile phones.

It appears that, in a bid to better understand consumer behaviour, some of the major players in the market have advocated the tracking of mobile phones within their malls, indicating how shoppers operate. As the story has broken, it has inevitably sparked a 'Big Brother'-esque paranoia, despite the technology being categorically unable to store phone numbers, messages, internet history or any other personal information.

Upon reading what the technology does - I thought of it like this: You go into a mall, and Mr. Eye-in-the-sky stops seeing you as a human being with a past, two parents and a set of organs, and instead sees a neon cube with an identity code. Cube 30496745 then does X,Y,Z - leaves the mall, and then goes back to being a person.

The response to the use of tracking technology would suggest that there is a swat team on the roof of every mall in the country, waiting for the tracker to feed it something like: "Graham Shone just used a 'Next' voucher, then had a coffee - he's clearly a terrorist - move! move! move!". Perhaps its a personal thing, but I have no problem at all with anyone knowing where and in what order I do my shopping. In fact, good luck to them. My last trip to Westfield was so scattergun it would probably break the computer.

Using this technology is basically a more comprehensive and time-saving way of conducting surveys. The tracking is not designed to pigeon-hole individuals, but to create a better environment and experience for the collective. In addition, the technology is not only used in retail - as this eye-opening news item testifies. Why not embrace everything you can to help improve life for you and your customers?

A simplistic view, perhaps, but if you're that worried about your phone being tracked while you shop, then leave it at home - or switch it off. Yes, there are limits as to what should be monitored, but in my opinion this doesn't get near them. And think about this - if you're paying by card for your shopping, then surely your bank has even more sensitive information than Land Securities or Westfield will ever get hold of.
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My attention was drawn earlier this week to an application by Stainsby Grange to construct a 
new retail scheme in Keighley. The development will be called 'Worth Valley Shopping Centre', and already has its own website, detailing which brands the company are hoping to entice to the scheme. The developers have indicated that this development is designed to complete Keighley's 'natural retail loop', illoustrated on the right.

This loop already contains two major retail schemes: The Cavendish Retail Park and The Airedale Centre, both mentioned in the retail statement accompanying the application as being infeasible sites for redevelopment as they contain a tenant mix committed to medium and long-term leases. A new mall, therefore, was seen as the key to moving Keighley's retail status forward, and rubber-stamping the town as the primary retail destination in the Airedale corridor, and after a six-year land acquisition process, Stainsby Grange have now gone 

Tying in nicely with my previous blog, the developers have, admirably, taken pains to explicitly write in the Design and Access statement that social media has been embraced, with the creation of www.facebook.com/worthvalleyshoppingcentre. The site currently has 22 'likes' and 1 'talking about' - which isn't actually too bad for a shopping centre by comparison, but maybe a bit more promotion in the right areas is needed for the site to take off.

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If, as indicated, construction is due to begin in early 2013 it would be a welcome fillip for the retail development pipeline, which is looking rather shaky after the nearby Trinity Leeds completes. Additionally, £300 million worth of local investment combined with the creation of 500 jobs is nothing to sneeze at - particularly in an area that has been measurably blighted by the economic downturn.

The real test, of course, comes after opening; when we will be able to gauge if indeed Worth Valley has contributed to or detracted from the retail market in Keighley. Careful measures need to be taken to ensure that there is no temptation to draw trade away from Airedale or Cavendish, even if a further downturn in the retail market necessitates a shift in target occupiers.

Out with the football, in with the retail.

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New Basingstoke Stadium.JPGAn interesting development in Basingstoke today; the local football club has decided to switch from the old Camrose stadium to a new 5,000-capacity ground adjacent to the Hilton Hotel in order to meet the requisite standards to play in a higher league.

The old ground will be sold off in order to fund the new £10 million arena, and turned into a new retail park, the size of which seems to have baffled our beloved BBC. They list the intended size of the new scheme as being 90,000 sq ft (27,432 sq m) - which is an astonishing mismatch of metric and imperial measurements to the tune of being wrong by 19,072 sq m!

I once met a Basingstoke resident who told me that the Camrose Stadium was, in fact, spelt entirely with capital letters in all local publications; and as such needed to be shouted at every mention. I look forward, therefore, to the planning, building and letting of the CAMROSE 
SHOPPING PARK, where all customers and staff will be forced to bellow at each other over every transaction, or face ejection from the premises.

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This is another example of the growing link between stadia and shopping arenas. In Milton Keynes, MK1 Shopping Park will be situated directly adjacent to the MK Dons stadium upon completion next autumn. Similarly, Southend United's new stadium (left) will feature 23,000 sq m (247,600 sq ft) of retail space to accompany flats, a hotel and a conference centre.


Coming soon to the Hoo Peninsula...

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...An entirely new town! 

Medway Council this month received a planning application from The Defence Infrastructure Organisation, (c/o Land Securities and CB Richard Ellis), to turn the site outlined below into a new community:

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At the centre of the 325-hectare site will be a new 35,000 square foot supermarket,
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 supplemented by a further 22,000 square feet of mixed-use retail. The offer is designed to support the occupants of some 5,000 new residential units in the new community who, presumably, will be instantly offered work in the 395,000 square feet of office space; and send their children to one of the FOUR newly-built schools.

So often we hear about town centres looking at redevelopment - it was a little novel to come across these plans; which seem to have eschewed the traditional option in favour of simply plonking a new urban centre on agricultural land. Judging by the photos on the enormous Design and Access statement supplied, the site has been little more than an abandoned train station, used in part for occasional military procedures. 


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The twenty-year development schedule may well render my 'Coming soon' title a little wayward. the images on the right display where and when this new community is going to spring up. These, of course, are outlines. The developers admit themselves that the growth engine for Lodge Hill will be residential development - an element which itself is governed almost entirely by market factors. Site preparation for the first set of new-build homes may not get underway until 2013, meaning that even at the most optimistic estimate, we won't see a completed urban centre until 2033.

Nonetheless, I look forward to viewing the series of reserved matters applications which will supplement this site. Strewn within the planning documents are references to other successful market communities from which all concerned with this project could take inspiration. 

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The Pantiles, in Tunbridge Wells is used as an example of a retail hub within a market town supported ably by the residential community it serves. Also mentioned is Delft in Holland, a municipality whose rustic 13-century design embraced the existing layout of the land on which it stood, allowing for easy orientation via straight, grid-pattern streets. 

Design will be key in ensuring the scheme's success as a market town. Everything needs to be walkable, with little or no chance of sprawl occurring at the site edges; the layout of the town centre needs to encourage flexibility for building uses without running the risk of allowing overbearing architecture to encroach on the town's idiosyncrasies. 

We will have to wait and see just how long it takes for the outline application to get the thumbs-up, but with Medway Council's own economic targets looming over them, it is likely that they will endeavour to get this project off the ground sooner rather than later.


A brewing storm in Croydon

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Poor Croydon. The town centre is crying out for a cohesive, coherent retail-led regeneration strategy but, judging by this week's events, I suspect it will be some time before a happy conclusion is reached.

 

Westfield's jubilation on Thursday that it is to act as a development partner to the Whitgift Foundation, which owns the freehold and a 25% long leasehold stake in the town's Whitgift shopping centre, was short lived. 

 

It transpired that Royal London and Irish Bank Resolution Corporation, formerly Anglo Irish Bank, which together own 75% of the long leasehold and the management of the mall, had no idea that Westfield and the Whitgift Foundation were striking a deal.

 

The new agreement has all the potential to frustrate IBRC in particular, since it has been advised by Jones Lang LaSalle throughout 2011 on a strategy both for its stake and the wider redevelopment of the Whitgift shopping centre.

 

The indications so far are that the brewing storm will accelerate Royal London and IBRC's ambitions to seek out their own development partner for the mall.

 

Now you can bet that Hammerson, the new owner of neighbouring shopping mall Centrale, and Minerva, which long held ambitions to develop out a neighbouring Croydon retail scheme, Park Place, will both be keeping a keen eye on proceedings. And firms including British Land, Land Securities, Capital Shopping Centres and Lend Lease have all flirted with the idea of investing in Croydon over the years.

 

So which investor - developer will catch Royal London and IBRC's eye? And what will be the reality of having potentially two parallel development agendas for one shopping centre?

 

 

For those familiar with the development of Croydon town centre, this will be just another twist in a long-running saga. But for those new to the scene: watch this space. You're in for a ride.

 

'Pound Shop' Taken to the Next Level.

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The Financial Times reported today that some retailers have been offered absurdly cheap annual rents in order for landlords to avoid paying business rents on "un-lettable" high street units, with Dixons, Clinton Cards and charity shops among the beneficiaries. 

Concessions have to occur between lessor and lessee in a difficult retail market - but some landlords have decided to take things to the extreme by charging a nominal annual rent of £1 on these spaces. This means that for less than the price of milkbread, and butter, you can now plonk yourself in a vacant unit, and trade for twelve months. Just as long as you're somewhere dreary. And cold.

A little shocking, maybe; but surprising? Hardly. Landlords are spitting feathers over having to pay business rates on vacant high street units, which now make up over 14% of town centres in Britain. I suspect many would prefer to chew off their own arm than risk increasing this figure by sustaining rents at rates only befitting a strong retail market. What we're experiencing is anything but.

One man likely to be particularly aghast at this is Russian billionaire, Maxim Voznesensky, who has recently agreed a deal to take 249 sq ft on Old Bond Street for 18 years at £225,000 per annum - the equivalent of £903.61 per square foot every year. Some basic maths would indicate that this pitch is 225,000 times more desirable than those given away by landlords - yet I'm sure Mr Voznesensky is sitting with his FT and morning coffee, wondering if maybe he should have held out for a cheaper space in one of these cold, dreary locales.

Maybe things would be better if landlords in the housing market were forced into a similar position. The problem of decreasing disposable incomes would be solved, the retail market would be gloriously resurrected, the high street buoyant and town centres thriving - while malevolent, tyrannical house barons sob in a ditch.

I'm not holding my breath...

NSLSP Summary: Out-of-town on the rise...

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CBRE have recently published their National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns (NSLSP) report, which indicates that although town centres still retain the majority of the population for comparison goods shopping, out-of-town destinations are slowly eating a larger chunk of the pie.

Analysing the period from 1998-2009, in which the population of the U.K. grew by 3.3 million, CBRE have identified which comparison goods trading locations have improved, and which have struggled out of over 3,000 destinations. 

Town centres have had their comparative market share reduced by around 4% in that time, despite the 1.64% increase in shopping population size. Out-of-town destinations, by contrast, now have an additional 9.6% of the population choosing them for comparison goods shopping - representing an increase in market share of an astounding 61%.

The survey cites three main causes of this paradigm shift, namely: retail mix change as a result of development activity; accessibility change brought about by transport innovations, and underlying population change. 

There is also an indication of a market squeeze, in which the top destinations will thrive, while others succumb to unfavourable market conditions. Of the new space developed in this period, 65% was in the top 200 locations, whereas 40% of other trading zones saw a loss of 4 million shoppers - the equivalent of £13 billion worth of trade disappearing.

Going forward, CBRE are adamant that fuel costs will have a more profound impact on retail than the internet. Shoppers currently tend to make fewer trips to larger centres but as fuel prices rise, we might see more and more affluent households deciding to stay at home to shop - following the lead of poorer households, who make up the majority of multi-channel consumers.

For an in-depth regional look at the winners and losers, see here.

Déjà vu at the Burlington Arcade

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The brewing row between the owners and tenants of the Burlington Arcade on Piccadilly, W1, has a distinct sense of déjà vu about it.

 

More than 34,000 people backed a petition in January 2010 calling for action after 150 traders were ejected from Portobello Market, W11, in favour of an All Saints store.

 

They argued that the changes to Lipka's Arcade, undertaken by landlord Warren Todd, threatened the character of one of the capital's top tourist attractions and accused him of jeopardising the market in pursuit of high rents.

 

Fast forward more than a year and a half, and the same argument is now being thrashed out under the arches of the Grade II-listed arcade in Piccadilly.

 

Meyer Bergman and Thor Equities, the owners of the Burlington Arcade, are threatening to replace boutique retailers, some of whom have traded there for more than 50 years, with glitzy brands such as Jimmy Choo. They have also hired New York-based retail guru Peter Marino, famed for his black leather cap and sunglasses combo, to head up a reported £2.5m makeover of the arcade.

 

Daniel Bexfield, who has run a silver shop in the Burlington Arcade for 13 years, has branded the joint venture's plans for the arcade as "Dubai style" and Susanna Lovis, a specialist in Victorian and Edwardian jewellery, warns that it risks being turned into another Westfield mall.

 

As the mood at the arcade becomes increasingly sour and Bexfield's protest gathers momentum - film director Michael Winner recently waded in - it's hard to see an easy and peaceful solution to this familiar dispute.

 

Bargoed's Big Idea Becomes a Reality

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Construction work on the retail element of the Bargoed Town Centre Regeneration project is set to begin next month, with Simons Group having recently exchanged the development agreement with Caerphilly Council on the £24 million scheme.

There will no doubt be stories this weekend that will grab more attention in South Wales, but once any short-term economic boost delivered by a victorious World Cup campaign fizzles out; the region would still be festering in dire economic circumstances.

The development has already delivered a new £25 million by-pass known as Angel Way to the East of the town centre, and a modern transport hub in northern Bargoed. The retail plateau is undoubtedly the crux of the project, and will provide a new Morrison's superstore measuring 56,000 sq ft and 7 supplementary retail units ranging from 1,700 sq ft to 5,250 sq ft. Perhaps the figure that will matter most to locals, however, is the provision of an estimated 300 new jobs in an area that suffered enormously following the recession, and is still lagging behind most areas of the U.K. in its recovery.

This video was produced in January 2011, highlighting the areas of the town to benefit from the scheme. Below are artists' impressions of how the new retail plateau will look:

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I believe the key to the success of the scheme so far is it's viability. EGi reported today on a retail development site in Newcastle which has stalled, then re-started, and then stalled again - before being bought outright this year....and then stalling. The partnership of Simons and the Council, by contrast, have carefully tailored the project to the needs of Bargoed. It is a clear example of rejecting over-ambition in favour of realism - hopefully this will provide a template from which other developers can take inspiration.

For more info on the scheme, visit the official site here.

Brewery Square: On Film

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Brewery Square are clearly delighted with Wagamamas having signed for space at their scheme - the official website features an enormous splash confirming the deal, reported this week on EGi.

The website also features this wonderful construction timelapse film, which I thoroughly enjoyed, although you'll want to put your headphones in before taking a look...

Endorsements Aplenty for Stoke Proposals

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Stoke-on-Trent may not be the first place one would instinctively look for a positive retail story ahead of rent quarter day looming large at the end of this week, yet my attention has been drawn to two major developments in the Staffordshire Town's retail scene over the last fortnight.

First, Stoke resident and 15-time darts world champion Phil Taylor endorsed Realis Estates' re-branding and unveiling of their multi-million pound City Sentral scheme at BCSC this month; stating that he was particularly concerned about youth unemployment in Stoke, and that this kind of project would help to remedy that. There have been a few concerns from locals over the new name, and the fact that anchor tenant Marks and Spencer already has a presence in the town centre has raised a hint of antipathy, which Realis will have to dampen by attracting exciting mix of tenants at the 70 supplementary units. Perhaps most crucial to the plans will be the proposed 1,000 car parking spaces in addition to the re-vamp of the bus station, which ought to make access to the town centre a great deal easier. Taylor's resounding positivity may not be unilateral at the moment, but taking the long view - this scheme ought to benefit the town both economically, and aesthetically. 

More recently, Capital Shopping Centres received an almost unanimously positive verdict from visitors to The Potteries centre, after consultation postcards were distributed to shoppers asking for their opinion on the developer's plan to add 58,000 square feet of leisure space to the scheme by 2014. The survey resulted in a 99% approval rating for the plans, which include six new restaurant units and a cinema. A formal application is expected later this year for the extension, to be known as 'The Avenue', with 100 construction jobs to be provided once the proposal is given the thumbs-up.

Both Realis and CSC will be hoping that their respective proposals for Stoke can provide a fillip to a city that has recently experienced a mite of negative press, and will undoubtedly be inspired by the positive impacts that Bury and Wakefield experienced after major retail developments. The former jumped 59 places in the CACI 2011 retail footprint following the opening of The Rock in July last year, and Trinity Walk has helped to bump Wakefield up 48 positions. Given the level of investment mooted for both schemes, developers and residents must surely be looking to at least emulate those achievements in the Potteries.


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