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Guest Post: RECon 2013 - Day Two.

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CBRE's head of retail consultancy, Jonathan De Mello, takes us through the events of an exciting second day at the global shopping centre market conference in Las Vegas.

"It was a real mission to get out of bed at 5am on Monday morning, following the 10-hour flight the day before and consequent heavy jet lag. However, I am glad I did given the hundreds of delegates that were waiting in the conference room for the panel session at 7am when I got into the convention centre! Americans take the adage of work hard/play hard to new extremes, with many of them looking rather the worse for wear after a big night on the Vegas Strip, but still very much there and ready to do business on what must have been only a few hours sleep the next day.

It was great to be part of the panel session with some good questions put to us by the moderator on omni channel, the future of retail, property investment, innovation and other topics. As I was representing European retail, questions on the Eurozone inevitably came up, linked to retailers' current appetite for expansion within and beyond the European marketplace. It is clear listening to the other panellists that retail faces similar challenges around the world, though each country/region has its own particular issues, such as import duties in Brazil discouraging retailers to invest there, or lack of quality infrastructure in India, which presents significant logistical challenges.

Overall though the mood at the session and also during the first day of RECon itself was upbeat. Attendance numbers are well up on previous years and currently tracking ahead of pre-2008 levels. Delegates here, whilst mindful of the lessons learnt post-Lehman, seem to be looking forward to the future with positivity. The key word being used here is 'growth' in contrast to an extent with the UK where business sentiment seems to be a little less upbeat at present. However, it is only a matter of time - given how closely linked the UK and Europe are to the US - before that positivity begins to permeate into UK retail. It's about time too given we are currently in one of the longest downturns in the economic cycle since records began!

The convention centre itself is hugely impressive, with some opulent stands on display. There are three separate areas spread over the 1m sq ft exhibition space - each one of which could comfortably accommodate the entirety of the Mapic 'bunker.' Today was very much about pre-arranged client meetings as given the sheer size of the venue randomly bumping into people you hope to meet simply isn't feasible in the way it is at BCSC, Mapic or any of the European conferences. CBRE alone have brought circa 800 delegates from around the world, which gives you an idea of the scale of the event.  My meetings today were very much back to back, and mainly with retailers - many of which aren't currently present in the UK and Europe but are interested in the market, or have a fledgling presence but want to expand further. Some good new names coming to a retail centre near you soon - watch this space!"

Yesterday's Estates Gazette/BCSC Retail Summit gave the strongest impression yet that the industry is ready to cut loose the chains of its troublesome recent history, and focus on creating a bright and prosperous future.

The most stark indication of this attitude came from Distressed Property Taskforce chairman Mark Williams, who said categorically that the industry group was focused solely on the future - and it looks like being one borne of something of a revolution in retail property. 

Williams said what everyone already knows - that there is an oversupply of retail space in this country; but added that in some locations the oversupply is by a factor of around 50%, and that levels of regeneration not seen since World War II are necessary to recalibrate the retail market in those long-suffering locales.

Last year's BCSC Conference was laden with references to 'managing' town centres as one would a major shopping centre - and that theme was heavily expanded on yesterday. New River Retail's Charles Miller told the room that investment in a major mall is not just about what you're buying, but the surrounding area; and how crucial it is to create fusion, rather than friction, between the two.

It was mentioned on numerous occasions by more than one speaker that fractured town centre ownership is stymieing the requisite improvement in high streets, and engenders the old-style laissez-faire landlordship once leases are secured. 

In the interest of combating such attitudes, Peter Brett Associates launched their 'Town Centre Investment Management' (TCIM) initiative during the afternoon session. It is designed with the expressed intention of bringing investment back into the high street by using an adapted form of Local Authorities' CPO powers to bring about uniformity of town centre ownership.

Whilst these aren't necessarily new ideas, the belief is that with the momentum currently behind town centre regeneration and the ongoing political discussions around the subject, now could be the best time to force political will in the direction of supplying proper solutions to those well-documented town centre problems.

Political will could yet prove to be the greatest stumbling block to securing that bright future for the retail industry. Consents still fly in for out-of-town developments, occasionally going against the recommendation of planning officers, and there was a palpable scepticism in the room when asked if Local Authorities had the collective desire to make a policy such as TCIM work in the long term.

BCSC President and Chaiman Marcus Kilby said in his summary of the day's discussions that 2013 could yet be the year looked back on in a decade or so as the year in which the retail industry began its crucial evolution into an overwhelming success story. The first shoots of that evolution are present, without question; but there remain several overarching caveats that must be addressed before that first great leap forward.

Use Type: A3/4/5 - Floating Restaurant

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Occasionally, EGi receives marketing particulars which throw our Post Office-based address finding tool a great big curve-ball.

This brochure came through over the past couple of weeks. A classic 'restaurant on a boat' opportunity in South Quay:

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Fortunately, we're flexible enough to be able to advertise the premises - although sadly we don't have a use type 'A3 - Restaurant - Seaworthy Vessel'.

All details available through Colliers International here.
I was interested to read last week about RICS launching a new small business lease, in order to ease the process by which new and independent retailers can acquire vacant high street space.

The move comes as high street vacancy rates sit at 11% nationwide; with some forecasts claiming that marginalised areas could hit 50% by 2015, when around half of high street leases across the country are due to expire. So, with that rather bleak prediction looming in the background, RICS have reached out to the independent trader, and offered a simpler way of navigating the 'costly and complicated' process of obtaining their first commercial lease. 

This partially mirrors an initiative taken some years ago by the British Property Federation; who published a 'short commercial lease' template; albeit without a discernible leaning towards either 'new' or 'independent' retailers; and - curiously - with no specified limit on lease length (aside from the word 'short'). 

Embedded within the wording of RICS' small business lease, however, are a couple of indications of current trends - for example, the lease cannot be used for an agreed term of over five years; the national average lease length currently sits at around 5.3 years. The lease also includes a break clause - something which was included in almost one third of leases agreed last year.

It also follows that RICS would specifically target small businesses and 'new and independent' retailers, after figures from 2011 indicated that such outlets clearly outperformed national multiples in terms of high street openings. They are, evidently, the best bet to try and stave off that portended 50% vacancy figure, as bigger retail brands continue to seek fewer, larger stores in refurbished megamalls or out-of-town parks; rather than forge ahead with high street expansion.

Hopefully, an easier-to-navigate path to high street occupation will result in a healthier vacancy rate figure in future years - and will put and end to landlords' temptation to charge absurd nominal rents to national chains in order to avoid vacancy rates. 

The lease template is available to download here.
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The "Average" Retail Space.

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IPD this week published their comprehensive annual lease review, which indicated that 2011 saw another decline in the average lease length taken for retail space - not to mention another increase in the percentage of leases containing lease breaks.

The study shows that over the past nine years, the average lease length has fallen from just shy of ten years to just under seven. In addition, the percentage of leases which now include a break has doubled.

The figures got me wondering about 'averages' across the retail market - and whether the available space across the country could be distilled down into one unit; the ultimate 'average space', to display what's typically available to UK retailers at this point in time.

Using samples from EGi's researched availability, which currently holds over 12,000 retail units being marketed, I found that the average retail unit currently available measures 2,941 sq ft; would be marketed with a lease length of 11.82 years; and would have an asking rent of £43,281 per annum.

Breaking these figures down by Property Type:

'Average' Shopping Centre Availability: 2,482 sq ft; 11.45 years; £72,195 per annum.

'Average' Retail Park Availability: 12,800 sq ft; 14 years; £171,094 per annum.

'Average' Other Retail Space: 1,837 sq ft; 11.57 years; £29,437 per annum.

Breakdown by Lease Type:

'Average' New FRI Leases: 3,069 sq ft; 11 years; £57,303 per annum.

'Average' Lease Assignments: 3,746 sq ft; 13.23 years; £111,547 per annum.


Whilst this is only a sample, it indicates that the space being marketed at the moment would, on average, be looking for a retailer to commit to a lease length far above that which is representative of the market. The difference between assignments and new leases can probably be attributed to struggling brands trying to divest themselves of lengthy, expensive obligations agreed during better economic times.

The majority of the 'other' retail space is located on high streets - and the fact that, on average, the £/sq ft ratio is closer to that of retail parks than shopping centres shows the level to which those spaces have struggled to attract occupiers. Indeed, shops have been going for as little as £1 per annum - so perhaps it's surprising to see the figure so high!

On average, then, retailers are currently best off going for a new lease on an out-of-town scheme; whilst the most costly deal would be agreeing to take an assignment at a shopping centre - which honestly comes as no surprise at all. 

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