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Guest Post: RECon 2013 - Day Three

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As RECon 2013 draws to a close in the Las Vegas heat, CBRE head of consultancy Jonathan De Mello gives us his final recollections on an eventful few days.


"Tuesday at RECON - what a day!! The conference area was extremely busy as Tuesday was essentially the last day before everyone heads back home on the Wednesday. I was even busier than Monday with a host of meetings both planned and impromptu - really frantic but highly productive networking with lots of great new contacts and some interesting new brands that are keen on entering the UK and wider European market.

Now Americans aren't exactly known for being environmentally friendly, with BIG Oil, BIG cars and the ability to super-size pretty much anything, but the key theme I picked up from RECON this year - from a number of different US retailers - was their desire to build retail 'ecosystems.' 

This generally but not exclusively applies to retailers that also have wholesale and concession 'doors' in addition to free-standing stores and an omni-channel platform, but essentially relates to a desire to make money from a market overall through 'balancing' the ecosystem of all possible outlets, in addition to building brand equity. 

In the digital age this approach is becoming increasingly relevant, as retailers compete to trade in the best locations with high footfall in order to build up the brand which in turn fuels growth for their online business - which generally yields stronger profit margins for them. The ecosystem concept extends this further to incorporate wholesale and concession retail too, which again can in certain markets outperform free-standing stores from a profit margin perspective. 

Channel choice is therefore key, but free-standing stores are essential to this in terms of building up brand equity to drive sales through the other channels, as well as providing an outlet for click and collect services, which generate the highest margin of all given the delivery costs associated with pure online retail. Given the continued importance of free-standing stores - which in themselves will not typically generate stellar margins in very high footfall areas given these locations often have very high rents to match, as an industry I have often thought we should move towards trying to measure the positive impact of a free-standing store on brand equity. 

One way that this could be done is through applying metrics PR firms typically use - such as 'advertising equivalent' to footfall numbers going past a store. This would better aid retailers - and landlords - to understand and quantify the true benefit of having a store beyond just turnover and profit.

Wasn't planning on writing an essay for this blog but it has sort of turned into one - so moving on - it is impossible to write a blog on Vegas and not talk about the evening networking that goes on outside the convention centre. Tuesday night was particularly fruitful for me from that perspective with the NY Developers pool party at the Bellagio, a great dinner at the Mandarin Oriental with some current and new clients, and finally 1 Oak club at the Mirage, where a number of brokers were to be found engaging in a final bout of networking over drinks to wrap up their ICSC in style. It was a fitting end to a great trip to Vegas, and I for one will definitely be back for more next year!"

Guest Post: RECon 2013 - Day Two.

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CBRE's head of retail consultancy, Jonathan De Mello, takes us through the events of an exciting second day at the global shopping centre market conference in Las Vegas.

"It was a real mission to get out of bed at 5am on Monday morning, following the 10-hour flight the day before and consequent heavy jet lag. However, I am glad I did given the hundreds of delegates that were waiting in the conference room for the panel session at 7am when I got into the convention centre! Americans take the adage of work hard/play hard to new extremes, with many of them looking rather the worse for wear after a big night on the Vegas Strip, but still very much there and ready to do business on what must have been only a few hours sleep the next day.

It was great to be part of the panel session with some good questions put to us by the moderator on omni channel, the future of retail, property investment, innovation and other topics. As I was representing European retail, questions on the Eurozone inevitably came up, linked to retailers' current appetite for expansion within and beyond the European marketplace. It is clear listening to the other panellists that retail faces similar challenges around the world, though each country/region has its own particular issues, such as import duties in Brazil discouraging retailers to invest there, or lack of quality infrastructure in India, which presents significant logistical challenges.

Overall though the mood at the session and also during the first day of RECon itself was upbeat. Attendance numbers are well up on previous years and currently tracking ahead of pre-2008 levels. Delegates here, whilst mindful of the lessons learnt post-Lehman, seem to be looking forward to the future with positivity. The key word being used here is 'growth' in contrast to an extent with the UK where business sentiment seems to be a little less upbeat at present. However, it is only a matter of time - given how closely linked the UK and Europe are to the US - before that positivity begins to permeate into UK retail. It's about time too given we are currently in one of the longest downturns in the economic cycle since records began!

The convention centre itself is hugely impressive, with some opulent stands on display. There are three separate areas spread over the 1m sq ft exhibition space - each one of which could comfortably accommodate the entirety of the Mapic 'bunker.' Today was very much about pre-arranged client meetings as given the sheer size of the venue randomly bumping into people you hope to meet simply isn't feasible in the way it is at BCSC, Mapic or any of the European conferences. CBRE alone have brought circa 800 delegates from around the world, which gives you an idea of the scale of the event.  My meetings today were very much back to back, and mainly with retailers - many of which aren't currently present in the UK and Europe but are interested in the market, or have a fledgling presence but want to expand further. Some good new names coming to a retail centre near you soon - watch this space!"

Guest Post: RECon 2013, Las Vegas - Day One.

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RECon 2013, the global shopping centre market conference, is upon us again. And more than 30,000 industry figures are descending on Las Vegas for the summit this year. CBRE's head of retail consultancy, Jonathan De Mello, has sent his first report from the front line. Expect to hear more from him on this blog over the next four days.

"In a taxi on my way to Gatwick and RECon 2013 and very excited about my first ever trip out to what is the biggest get together of retail and property professionals in the world. I have attended MAPIC every year over the last 10 years, but everything I have heard about RECon is that it - in true American style - is a supersized version of that - on steroids with a huge side order of fries!

Sunday is CBRE's Cabana party at the Wynn pool, which unfortunately I am going to miss as my plane won't get into Vegas in time. The whole idea of networking in your swimming trunks by the pool is quite alien to us Brits, and probably with good reason given the average fitness level of Brits in property is likely to be sub-Vegas poolside standard! However, I am looking forward to the CBRE opening cocktail party at the Encore later - to catch up with a number of clients that are attending the event from around the world as well as CBRE colleagues I haven't seen for some time.

Looking ahead, these opening events are definitely the calm before the storm, with a whirlwind series of back to back winner takes all 30 minute meetings from Monday morning onwards into Wednesday when everyone heads home. Monday morning at 7am is the Global Delegates breakfast, and I am honoured to be part of a panel there representing Europe, with panellists also there from the US, Asia, and Latin America. It should be a good session given the questions that have been circulated in advance on the impact of omni channel and other topics, and I am hoping to provide some insight to delegates on these topics from a European perspective. If you are reading this blog and attending RECon, it would be great to see you there bright and early on Monday morning!

Approaching Gatwick now in record time - thanks to an 'out there' cab driver that sees speed limits more as guidelines than statutory law!"

Yesterday's Estates Gazette/BCSC Retail Summit gave the strongest impression yet that the industry is ready to cut loose the chains of its troublesome recent history, and focus on creating a bright and prosperous future.

The most stark indication of this attitude came from Distressed Property Taskforce chairman Mark Williams, who said categorically that the industry group was focused solely on the future - and it looks like being one borne of something of a revolution in retail property. 

Williams said what everyone already knows - that there is an oversupply of retail space in this country; but added that in some locations the oversupply is by a factor of around 50%, and that levels of regeneration not seen since World War II are necessary to recalibrate the retail market in those long-suffering locales.

Last year's BCSC Conference was laden with references to 'managing' town centres as one would a major shopping centre - and that theme was heavily expanded on yesterday. New River Retail's Charles Miller told the room that investment in a major mall is not just about what you're buying, but the surrounding area; and how crucial it is to create fusion, rather than friction, between the two.

It was mentioned on numerous occasions by more than one speaker that fractured town centre ownership is stymieing the requisite improvement in high streets, and engenders the old-style laissez-faire landlordship once leases are secured. 

In the interest of combating such attitudes, Peter Brett Associates launched their 'Town Centre Investment Management' (TCIM) initiative during the afternoon session. It is designed with the expressed intention of bringing investment back into the high street by using an adapted form of Local Authorities' CPO powers to bring about uniformity of town centre ownership.

Whilst these aren't necessarily new ideas, the belief is that with the momentum currently behind town centre regeneration and the ongoing political discussions around the subject, now could be the best time to force political will in the direction of supplying proper solutions to those well-documented town centre problems.

Political will could yet prove to be the greatest stumbling block to securing that bright future for the retail industry. Consents still fly in for out-of-town developments, occasionally going against the recommendation of planning officers, and there was a palpable scepticism in the room when asked if Local Authorities had the collective desire to make a policy such as TCIM work in the long term.

BCSC President and Chaiman Marcus Kilby said in his summary of the day's discussions that 2013 could yet be the year looked back on in a decade or so as the year in which the retail industry began its crucial evolution into an overwhelming success story. The first shoots of that evolution are present, without question; but there remain several overarching caveats that must be addressed before that first great leap forward.
The British Retail Consortium and KPMG today published their latest figures indicating year-on-year sales performance across the UK. 

The figures showed that April, hamstrung by March smuggling away (in part) the bonanza Easter weekend, has suffered the first drop in overall spend in comparison to 2012. They also pointed to continued growth in on-line retailing which, despite the overall sales drop, jumped 8.3% on the previous year:

I mentioned on here about a year ago that the rumbling on-line retail machine was effectively immune from any kind of fluctuation in overall sales, and would simply continue to rise. This has been overwhelmingly corroborated by all KPMG & BRC updates over the past year, which indicate a year-on-year increase in on-line sales every month; peaking at a 17.8% rise in December 2012.

What it effectively means for retailers is that they will have to continue to manage their physical retail presence to cater for a public who are increasingly using the internet as their one-stop shopping arena. 

Retailers' trading updates now often give strong indicators that they are looking to reduce physical space in order to focus on multi-channel sales, and not before time. On-line sales now account for just above 10% of all transactions nationwide - and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see that figure continue to creep upwards over the coming years. 

Whilst it's uncomfortable news for landlords, what is still required is a slimming-down of store portfolios in order to recalibrate retail footprints to accurately reflect the modern marketplace. Several brands have done so this year already - albeit via the unwanted conduit of administration; a discomfort which needn't be necessary if retailers are alive to the realities of the environment in which they operate. 

M&S - Marketing and Seat-Covers?

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Any advertising executives out there may well be able to prove me wrong - but I don't think I've ever seen a campaign for a store opening which revolved around bicycle seats.

That novel approach is just what Marks & Spencers have adopted in promoting their new store in Amsterdam, working through the night to place branded seat-covers on the Dutch capital's some 1,000,000 bicycles:

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Suggestions as to how a retailer might tailor a similar campaign in the UK are welcome...

Guest Post: The Supermarket Web

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This week, Tesco has announced that it will be opening more "dark stores" in order to fulfil grocery orders placed over the internet. Matthew Hobbs, partner in Briant Champion Long's specialist foodstore team, looks at what this means for the future of supermarket retailing.

"Tesco's announcement about opening "dark stores" for fulfilling online grocery orders has brought into focus the future relationship between supermarkets and internet retailing.

Grocery sales on the internet are expected to double by 2015. If this trend continues it begs the question as to what the future holds for "bricks and mortar" supermarkets. The ability of supermarket chains to react to the increase in online shopping will depend upon the suitability of their property portfolios for conversion to an operation which serves internet demand.

The best supermarkets tend to be in easily accessible locations with a ready catchment of preferably affluent customers within easy driving distance and efficient servicing provisions. Critically from the point of view of the supermarket operators, the same factors that make a store good for the weekly trolley shop also apply to delivery of a successful internet fulfilment operation.

Although Tesco's stated strategy is to build new standalone "dark stores", in many locations internet fulfilment can also be easily and cost effectively dealt with in the "back-of-house" areas of existing stores. On this basis, as internet sales continue to take an increasing proportion of grocery sales, a larger proportion of supermarkets' floor areas will be dedicated to fulfilling these orders. If larger servicing areas for deliveries are needed, these can be accommodated by shrinking existing customer car parking areas as visitor numbers decline. Neither of these changes require major physical alterations or controversial planning consents.

The internet offers the opportunity for "footloose" retailing that is unconnected with where a shopper is located. However, even as the internet revolution takes hold, it will still be, paradoxically, the outlets that display the "traditional" attributes of proximity, market dominance, and access to a large, affluent catchment population that continue to perform most effectively.

So although we will see more new "dark stores" in future there will also be a quieter transformation that sees existing stores gradually reconfiguring to meet new online consumer habits."


Revolutionary Retail.

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Marks and Spencer's 150,000 sq ft Cheshire Oaks outlet opens today, marking the culmination of a seven-year project for the retailer, and perhaps a new dawn in sustainable retail development.

The store is M&S' second-largest outlet in the U.K. behind the Oxford Street flagship, and opens during a troublesome year for the brand in which profits have dipped and heads have rolled. 

From an environmental point of view, the store seems a success without even trading so much as a penny. Features such as the breathable walls, displacement ventilation, biomass boiler and the rainwater harvesting system will all contribute to the a reduction in the store's carbon usage, energy consumption and reliance on mains supply.

To see such a prominent retail brand follow through with an environmental project of this scale is indeed encouraging, and has drawn deserved acclaim even from those who criticised the project soon after its inception. But for CEO Mark Bolland and his fellow M&S executives, what will surely matter most is what level of commercial success the store achieves.

To this end, the retailer has chosen the Cheshire Oaks outlet as the first to feature free Wi-Fi - soon to be rolled out nationwide - to complement other innovations such as QR codes, dotted around the store in order to supply customers with more information about products and the shop itself.

Staff will be armed with iPads to help navigate patrons around the various elements of the store, including an 18,000 sq ft 'Home' department - larger than that of Oxford Street - and the new skincare section. There are also deli counters and bakeries located around the store, in addition to two cafes.

Being, as it is, an unprecedented venture in terms of both product range and store design, the shop will undoubtedly provide the 'unique customer experience' mentioned by M&S director of retail, Steve Rowe. The challenge for Marks and Spencer is to ensure that the shop's performance doesn't suffer once the novelty factor disappears, as with an ambitious and revolutionary project such as this, the key to long-term success is sustainability.

Environmentally, Marks and Spencer have ensured that the store is possibly more sustainable than any other in the country - but they have to remain ahead of the curve in terms of technological innovation and product selection to ensure longevity for the store's commercial success.

Analysis: April Sales Figures.

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The ONS today released April's sales figures, revealing that on a month-to-month basis the British public has spent less across all sectors of retail - resulting in a 2.3% decrease in total retail sales.

This has, in fact, largely been the case over the last four years. March tends to provide an early-year boost to sales figures, resulting in a return to something approaching normalcy in April - indicated by the chart below.

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Perhaps a fairer reflection on how April 2012 performed is to look at a year-on-year comparison. Yearly sales overall were down almost £500 million on April 2011, and sales excluding petrol were down by around £288 million. Some sectors, however, saw an increase in spending - namely non-specialised stores, household goods and non-store retailing - which I'll come to later. The graph below indicates that this April essentially returned to levels seen in years previous (when petrol sales are excluded) - this could point to April 2011 being something of a Royal-Wedding-inspired anomaly.
I think the decline in year on year figures can largely be explained away by a combination of the lack of nationally-celebrated nuptials (with the additional bonus of an extra bank holiday) and, of course, the wettest April since 1910. The fact that some sectors seem to have picked up since 12 months ago is also slightly encouraging.

One interesting piece of information I picked up from the figures is that although some sectors of retail increased slightly; the only one showing a steady increase over a number of years is 'non-store retailing' - which, one can surmise, reveals the ever-increasing tendency to shop online. 
This graph indicates the increase in sales figures for non-store retailing in the month of April since 2000. Despite the aforementioned £288 million decrease in overall sales from 2011-12, non-store sales increased by around £162.5 million overall. This simply points to the robustness of the on-line retail environment, and to the nature of the challenge facing those who wish to return Britain's high streets and town centres to their former glory. 

The on-line retail revolution was pointed to by GVA's 'Unlocking Town Centre Retail Developments' today as one of the main reasons for the high street decline - as retailers continue to row back their requirements for physical space in lieu of pursuing multi-channel sales. On this evidence, it's hard to see how the high street can fight back, and enjoy a similar upward curve in years to come.

KPMG: Mobile Technology to Decide High Street 'Battle'

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KPMG have this week published research which indicates that retailers worldwide are beginning to come round to the view that effective implementation of mobile technology is eclipsing more traditional ways of generating business.

The research, compiled following a survey of 350 senior financial officers of global retailers and consumer brands, also indicates that a decrease in annual revenue is widely expected, with opinion varying from country to country on how far mobile technology can help to maximise sales.

The U.K. respondents appear to be the least enthused about the ability of mobile technology to deliver a much-needed boost to retail sales, with only 36% of the Britons surveyed stating that yes; the technology will drastically help improve sales over the next two years - compared with 46% in Germany, 44% in America, and 50% in India

Although it does indicate a lukewarm leaning towards the benefits of mobile transactions, those percentages seem incredibly low. Especially when considering further insight by KPMG published in September last year, which indicated that over 90% of financial services executives believed mobile payments were 'yet to go mainstream'. This is in spite of the fact that an estimated $3 billion worth of transactions were processed via mobiles last year - four times the amount for 2010.

What figures, then, can we expect when mobile transactions really take off? We could be looking at astronomical numbers - and it's then even more alarming to consider that less than four out of ten retail CFOs in this country remain, at present, unconvinced of its merits. Perhaps it's down to an inherent mistrust of new technologies, and 'Big Brother' paranoia thwarting appropriate progress in the fusion between the old and the new.

Do we, then, continue with the slow progression towards (and begrudging acceptance of) a coalescence of modern technology and traditional retail values; or do we do away with the myopia, and give mobile technology the chance it deserves in the immediate future to help resurrect a broken retail market?

I'd rather hope that more than 36% of retailers, agents and landlords in the U.K. would choose the latter.

Online success shines through Christmas results

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This week has been quite a revealing week for the retail industry with some of the UK's biggest retailers producing their Christmas trading results.

 

There have been some clear successes. House of Fraser, John Lewis, Sainsbury's, New Look, SuperGroup, Debenhams, Majestic Wine, Foyles, Morrisons and JD Sports have all reported increased like-for-like sales figures.

 

But there was a more worrying picture being painted by the likes of Home Retail Group, Tesco, Mothercare, Halfords and Thorntons, which all flagged up falling sales. Some of these lacklustre results come despite widespread discounting in the run up to Christmas, which will have hit retailers' pockets.

 

A clear opportunity or warning sign (depending if your glass is half full or half empty) for both retailers and landlords to pick out of these results lies in the blossoming online sales figures. They helped some retailers push through a tough trading period.

 

John Lewis said: "Our very successful multichannel and online operations have been at the heart of John Lewis' performance. All three John Lewis markets were instrumental in driving sales in this area, with johnlewis.com outperforming its market and seeing 27.2% growth."

 

"As the 'Click and Collect' facility has proved to be so popular, from next month the number of collection outlets will more than double to 116, including collection points in 84 Waitrose branches, with more being planned."

 

Debenhams' like-for-like sales increased by 1.4% including VAT in the 18 weeks to 7 January 2012. However, its online business, which it says is a key component of its multi-channel offer, delivered like-for-like sales increase of 34.8%. 

 

Ellen Flood, retail expert from Shopow says: "The internet is developing as a key element of the retail landscape. Online shopping offers shoppers an incredible amount of choice, convenience and savings."

 

"What we will see this year is the evolution of the high street with leading retailers changing their approach, and in many cases their product lines, to reflect the tastes of the modern shopper."

Social Media: A Missed Opportunity?

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Some intriguing research was published this week by BCSC, which investigated shopping centres' relationship with social media, and how retail schemes could better utilise such platforms to their future advantage.

By analysing primary data collected from shopping centre managers and social media users, BCSC were able to determine how effectively the two were interacting.

Some statistics published in the research were illuminating. When asked why they didn't follow a shopping centre on social media, a combined figure of 31% of the respondents said that they were either unaware of the scheme's on-line presence or had never considered it as a means of interaction. In addition, only 12% of shopping centre managers said that a dedicated social media executive was tasked with managing their on-line output, and less than half of the centres (42%) carry any written guidelines on social media usage.

These are just a few of the statistics that point to a missed opportunity for schemes to engage with customers on an increasingly popular platform. There seems to be a very clear and obvious dichotomy between what the public would want from a shopping centre via social media, and what those centres are currently providing. The malls seem to currently churn out repetitive marketing material, precipitating a swift click of the 'unfollow' button. People would, in fact, prefer malls to inform them of new store openings, upcoming events and news about improvements to the centre.

An issue that is brought up in defence of social media negligence is one of metrics. Malls find it difficult to quantify the benefit given to them by an increased on-line presence, and whether indeed it would be worth spending money improving their output on such sites in order to generate increases in revenue that may have arrived regardless. My view is that with some 175 million people people now using Twitter, and 400 million logging onto Facebook daily, is ignoring the potential of social media a risk that retailers and retail developments can afford to take?

The fact is, more and more people are harnessing the 'wisdom of crowds' provided by these sites to inform their choices when it comes to retail - and negative on-line publicity spreads like wildfire. Without active management of social media output, centres could find their reputations tarnished in the blink of an eye via a chatroom, hashtag, or an orchestrated on-line campaign

Read the full report on-line here.

Move over, Google, there's a new pop-up in town...

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Yet another big name e-tailer has announced that it will be slinging itself into the murky waters of high-street retail as the countdown to Christmas brings even more ferocity to the battle for market share.
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On-line auction site eBay will be trialling a new pop-up store in Soho's Dean Street this December, and becomes the latest in a string of on-line retailers to announce a high-street presence. The store will open on December 1st, and close four days later as the internet giant tries to maximise profit from the busiest week of the year for web-based purchases.

I must say the eBay store sounds a great deal more civilised than I first imagined it. I envisaged a giant digital clock on the back wall, ticking down to the countdown theme as frenzied shoppers proffered increasingly ludicrous bids for a towel or crisp emblazoned with the image of Jesus. However, eBay doyens have rendered this pure fantasy by instead featuring barcoded images of more sensible products which, when scanned, direct a smart phone browser to eBay's pay-wall.

This means that by the end of this calendar year, we will have seen Ocado, Amazon, Google, Simply Be and now eBay debut their physical retail presence in high-profile destinations, whilst other big name brands have fully immersed themselves in the world of multi-channel retail. Surely a message to the market that the collision between on-line and high street shopping has now become a fusion; and news that even Tesco is leaning towards space-saving is as big an indicator as any.

Christmas Time, Mistletoe and....i-Helicopters.

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So, back go the clocks - and like a Brussels sprout on Christmas day, festive adverts are now to be forced down our throats until December 26th. Joy unconfined for some, unnecessary shared bonhomie for others.

Falling into the latter "Scroogian" category, I have already stolen some coal and wrapped it in newspaper for my next of kin; but retailers competing in an increasingly brutal market have already begun clamouring for the attention of those less stringent, or 'despicable', if you like.

This November will see possibly the earliest ever beginning to the festive sales, as Hallowe'en decorations are quickly stashed away in favour of fake snow, reindeer and Christmas trees as the chosen adornment of shop windows. With the high street in desperate need of a seasonal boost - it's little wonder that brands are trying to get bargain shoppers in early this year.

The high street's major retailers will be competing fiercely with supermarkets - the latter enjoyed a 6.9% year-on-year growth in sales last Christmas; and it would be a brave man to bet against a similar outcome in 2011. Price sensitivity is the order of the day, and the larger stores can undercut the high street on this year's key toys and gadgets.

We may also see an increase in the propensity to shop on-line for gifts. John Lewis last year enjoyed a bumper period - with year-on-year on-line sales increasing by an incredible 42%. Horrific weather conditions last year were possibly the main reason for this, but I would also attribute the increase in internet shopping to simply not wishing to deal with queues or a last-minute dearth of in-store merchandise.

There is quite a conservative view on what this year's top sellers will be. The average RRP of a top ten children's gift is £47.20; for her, £19.89, and for him, £26.47 - a little under what I would have expected - although the average is heavily decreased in this case by the omission of an iPad 2, or a Kindle.

I would personally be ecstatic with a remote control helicopter - see here, although the coal will have to be eschewed in favour of more appropriate offerings. Where can you find good myrrh these days?







 

NSLSP Summary: Out-of-town on the rise...

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CBRE have recently published their National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns (NSLSP) report, which indicates that although town centres still retain the majority of the population for comparison goods shopping, out-of-town destinations are slowly eating a larger chunk of the pie.

Analysing the period from 1998-2009, in which the population of the U.K. grew by 3.3 million, CBRE have identified which comparison goods trading locations have improved, and which have struggled out of over 3,000 destinations. 

Town centres have had their comparative market share reduced by around 4% in that time, despite the 1.64% increase in shopping population size. Out-of-town destinations, by contrast, now have an additional 9.6% of the population choosing them for comparison goods shopping - representing an increase in market share of an astounding 61%.

The survey cites three main causes of this paradigm shift, namely: retail mix change as a result of development activity; accessibility change brought about by transport innovations, and underlying population change. 

There is also an indication of a market squeeze, in which the top destinations will thrive, while others succumb to unfavourable market conditions. Of the new space developed in this period, 65% was in the top 200 locations, whereas 40% of other trading zones saw a loss of 4 million shoppers - the equivalent of £13 billion worth of trade disappearing.

Going forward, CBRE are adamant that fuel costs will have a more profound impact on retail than the internet. Shoppers currently tend to make fewer trips to larger centres but as fuel prices rise, we might see more and more affluent households deciding to stay at home to shop - following the lead of poorer households, who make up the majority of multi-channel consumers.

For an in-depth regional look at the winners and losers, see here.
The opening of House of Fraser's new click-and-collect store in Aberdeen today could be significant for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it is a major department store and leading high street retailer sacrificing 98,500 sq ft from their average unit size to engage fully with multi-channel retail. Secondly, and most importantly, it represents what could very well be the future of how customers and retailers interact.

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The emphasis is heavily on creating a relaxed atmosphere in a fashion boutique/internet cafe hybrid in which patrons can have a leisurely browse House of Fraser's extensive range of products on computers, interactive screens and iPads; all whilst enjoying free coffee and sitting in chairs comfortable enough to snooze in.

The logic behind this concept is that customers now wish to shop in-store as they would at home. Combining a homely, relaxing atmosphere with the highest calibre technology to produce a unique shopping experience is what House of Fraser hope will catapult them ahead of their rivals as the battle for profit margins intensifies in a now rather brutal retail market. Fashion retailer Oasis also seems to buy into this thinking after having opened its very own new concept store just off Oxford Street this week. Oasis also cite customer experience as being the reason for the move - abolishing queues for tills by introducing customised mobile iPads to process transactions throughout the store. The message seems to be clear: embrace technology or fall behind.

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We have also recently seen Ocado trial a shopping wall at One New Change, and as technology develops into as important a part of retail as bricks and mortar, what price a Shanghai-style subway shopping wall adorning Holborn tube station in the near future? It is certainly pleasing to see such a propensity from retailers to engage with technology, rather than fear it. Amazon have also entered the multi-channel ballpit, installing lockers at the St. Paul's mall, among other places, wherein customers can collect their purchases.

For House of Fraser, this will undoubtedly be one of their most scrutinised stores in terms of performance - not just by HoF bosses, but by retailers nationwide. Following their lead, we may well see other department stores, retailers and possibly even supermarkets rolling out identikit store designs as click-and-collect becomes the definitive way in which consumers re-align their loyalties to brands post-recession. Looking even further ahead, this may well reflect how town centres and shopping malls are designed, as the impact of the reduction in necessary floorspace is felt by landlords and developers alike.







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