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BCSC Retail Summit: Town centres need revolution.

By Graham Shone on May 15, 2013 9:07 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
Yesterday's Estates Gazette/BCSC Retail Summit gave the strongest impression yet that the industry is ready to cut loose the chains of its troublesome recent history, and focus on creating a bright and prosperous future.

The most stark indication of this attitude came from Distressed Property Taskforce chairman Mark Williams, who said categorically that the industry group was focused solely on the future - and it looks like being one borne of something of a revolution in retail property. 

Williams said what everyone already knows - that there is an oversupply of retail space in this country; but added that in some locations the oversupply is by a factor of around 50%, and that levels of regeneration not seen since World War II are necessary to recalibrate the retail market in those long-suffering locales.

Last year's BCSC Conference was laden with references to 'managing' town centres as one would a major shopping centre - and that theme was heavily expanded on yesterday. New River Retail's Charles Miller told the room that investment in a major mall is not just about what you're buying, but the surrounding area; and how crucial it is to create fusion, rather than friction, between the two.

It was mentioned on numerous occasions by more than one speaker that fractured town centre ownership is stymieing the requisite improvement in high streets, and engenders the old-style laissez-faire landlordship once leases are secured. 

In the interest of combating such attitudes, Peter Brett Associates launched their 'Town Centre Investment Management' (TCIM) initiative during the afternoon session. It is designed with the expressed intention of bringing investment back into the high street by using an adapted form of Local Authorities' CPO powers to bring about uniformity of town centre ownership.

Whilst these aren't necessarily new ideas, the belief is that with the momentum currently behind town centre regeneration and the ongoing political discussions around the subject, now could be the best time to force political will in the direction of supplying proper solutions to those well-documented town centre problems.

Political will could yet prove to be the greatest stumbling block to securing that bright future for the retail industry. Consents still fly in for out-of-town developments, occasionally going against the recommendation of planning officers, and there was a palpable scepticism in the room when asked if Local Authorities had the collective desire to make a policy such as TCIM work in the long term.

BCSC President and Chaiman Marcus Kilby said in his summary of the day's discussions that 2013 could yet be the year looked back on in a decade or so as the year in which the retail industry began its crucial evolution into an overwhelming success story. The first shoots of that evolution are present, without question; but there remain several overarching caveats that must be addressed before that first great leap forward.

NPPF: Six months on.

By Graham Shone on October 17, 2012 9:02 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

September 27th marked the six-month anniversary of the implementation of the government's new planning policy framework; designed ostensibly to simplify the planning system, protect the environment and, perhaps most crucially, to promote sustainable development.

With an entire section within the guidelines devoted to 'Ensuring the Vitality of Town Centres', the framework was also designed (albeit less pointedly) to stymie the proliferation of major out-of-town retail schemes, and lend another government hand to the long wished-for recovery of Britain's urban centres.

The full impact of the new framework won't be fully realised for some time; however, six months on, we can perhaps begin to assimilate an understanding of how the new guidelines are shaping retail planning (if at all) - and in particular the impact so far on out-of-town developments.

The criteria for inclusion in the following study were that the applications either have to be for new out-of-town retail developments measuring over 50,000 sq ft with three units or more, or for extensions to existing developments of that nature.

The charts below show the number of applications submitted between April 15th and July 15th over the last three years, and the combined sizes of all proposals:

What these charts signify is that although the number of applications has reduced compared to last year, the total amount of space has hardly dropped off at all - there are still several major applications for out-of-town space being lodged even with the new framework in mind. 2010 saw a similar overall number of applications to 2012, but for only around 60% of the amount of space applied for this year.

The pie charts below indicate the status of these proposals as of September 27th in each respective year:

In the two years preceding the NPPF, 50% or more of the applications submitted between April 15th and July 15th had been approved by September 27th. In 2012, only 33% of applications (5) had been given the thumbs-up by that date. This is in addition to one of the proposals having already been refused - which did not happen in 2011 or 2010. Whilst we can't assess the exact role of the NPPF in every individual application; it seems fair to say that the new guidelines are having an impact when it comes to the final outcomes of out-of-town proposals.

This theory is backed up by the chart below, which indicates the average time taken (within the 15th April - 27th September parameter) for the applications to be decided:

2012's average is a significant increase on those of 2010 and 2011, and may go some way to explaining the higher proportion of applications without decisions. As authorities adjust to operating the mechanics of decision making within the guidelines of the new proposals, delays to decisions are to be expected. This might also be due to different interpretations of the nuances of the planning framework causing developers to further explain why their proposal constitutes a 'sustainable development', and for objectors to counter that with reasons to explain why it doesn't.

Moving forwards, I will be interested to keep an eye on the undecided applications thus far from 2012 - as they represent 77% of the total space applied for. Of the undecided applications from 2010, 50% of the space was eventually permitted, whilst the 2011 figure is 29% (40% still without an outcome).

In twelve months' time, it will be of interest to see what proportion of the as-yet-undecided space has got the go-ahead, the percentage refused permission, and also how much has been either withdrawn or even superseded. I'll also be curious to see the number and scale of out of town proposals lodged during a full eighteen months of NPPF implementation.

I said at the outset that the full impact of the new planning framework is still to be realised - but there are certainly some visible trends so far that it is having an impact upon decision making, even if from a spatial point of view it hasn't quite dampened developers' tendencies to look beyond the urban perimeter for expansion opportunities. This may come further down the line, however, when the NPPF regulations mean a higher proportion of out-of-town applications are either turned down or left unresolved for an unpalatable length of time.


(All Sources: EGi Planning)

Out-of-Town Retail: An Inexorable Rise?

By Graham Shone on September 3, 2012 10:35 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
When Mary Portas published her 27-point plan for the future of Britain's high streets back in December last year, I remember thinking that the ideas were sound enough, but that the execution might be severely hampered by either a lack of strong government support, or a UK retail market too heavily focused on out-of-town development over town centre resurrection.

Since the turn of the year, I have seen precious little to convince me to deviate from that view.

EGi Research monitors the progress of new retail schemes (over 50,000 sq ft) across the country, usually starting with the first planning proposal. The chart below shows the location of all new schemes picked up by EGi so far this calendar year - and when compared to 2010 and 2011, indicates just how strong the shift has been from town centre developments to out of town schemes:


Whilst we're only two thirds through the year, and new town centre schemes could potentially stage a dramatic recovery between now and January, it is telling that the majority of new major retail developments are in out-of-town locations, despite the sentiments of both the high street review, and the new planning policy framework issued in March. 

Going further into the planning information - the chart below indicates that whilst town centre schemes accounted for some 68.3% of the floorspace for 2010's retail proposals, that figure drops to 20.7% for what has gone in so far this year:
 

Perhaps crucial to this was the government's decision not to fully endorse point 15 of the Portas Review, which called for an exceptional government sign-off for all out of town schemes. They instead insisted that call-in powers ought to be used sparingly in order to maintain the devolution of planning power to the local authority, and pointed to the new policy framework as evidence enough for their commitment to 'town centre first' retail development.

What's clear, however, is that neither the NPPF nor the High Street Review has discouraged developers from lodging plans for out of town schemes, and the reality is that it might take something as drastic as an exceptional sign-off obligation from central government in order to do so. 

With retailers disappearing from the high streets at an alarming speed, and even relatively solvent brands threatening to quit the UK over extortionate business rates, the amount and location of physical retail space in the country has to be very carefully scrutinised. If the desire is truly for our town centres to once again be the locus of retail activity, there perhaps needs to be heavier backing for what appear to be the more draconian points of the Portas Review. 

NPPF and an Oxfordshire squabble.

By Graham Shone on July 18, 2012 12:46 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
At the beginning of last month, I mentioned on Twitter that LXB Retail's Banbury Gateway was the subject of some Planning-Policy based protests from owners of town centre schemes, concerned that the development would have an adverse impact on town centre vitality in the long run.

The interactive map below gives a concise summary of the positions held by each of the scheme owners (click the icons for information, zoom out & drag to view all three):


The main criticism being aimed at LXB's proposed 295,000 sq ft development is that the sequential assessment undertaken by the developer is unsatisfactory, as it complies with the requirements of 2009's Planning Policy Statement 4 (PPS4), rather than the National Planning Policy Framework published in March. As such, there is the assertion that LXB cannot adequately demonstrate that the scheme is a sustainable development that will lead to sustainable growth, nor can it prove to a satisfactory level that it will not have a detrimental impact on Banbury town centre. Therefore, the application should be refused under paragraph 27 of the new planning policy framework.

LXB argue that the test was indeed adequate, as was agreed by the Local Planning Authority, and that the guidelines stated on such matters by the new policy framework are broadly consistent with the requirements it has already satisfied. They say that scheme does not stymie any current town centre investment plans, and cannot be shown to have a material adverse effect on nearby centres.

The application for the scheme was submitted in December 2011, and as such is one of many that is currently under consideration amid the backdrop of the NPPF without the legislation being in place when the proposals were being formalised. Many elements of this particular application were tailored to the draft NPPF from June 2011, but that will not sate the incandescence of protesters who feel that the framework validates the Town Centre First initiative more than ever, and to dismiss policy-based criticism of proposals submitted prior to its formal implementation is almost to discredit it altogether.

This is why I feel that this particular issue is one of a few developing around the country which may prove to make or break the new framework. From the point of view of those opposed to the scheme, LXB has adhered to planning and sequential requirements which, similar as they might be, are not exactly like those outlined in the NPPF, and as such it ought to be incumbent upon them to demonstrate under the new guidelines that their scheme ensures town centre prosperity, rather than jeopardises it.

From the point of view of LXB, they have adhered to the planning constraints and followed necessary guidelines in order to acquire the resolution to grant permission verdict precisely one day before the new framework was published. Does the NPPF dictate that they must carry out all of these necessary assessments again? Are Cherwell Council likely to use the new framework to delay the delivery of the scheme - and with it, the relocation of Prodrive?

My view is that the scheme will probably go ahead as stated in the original application, but with a series of section 106 conditions which would hopefully ensure the satisfaction of all parties - specifically, that the scheme is linked to the town centre by public transport, and perhaps an amnesty on securing any more retailers with a town centre presence to the scheme (if that's possible to enforce).

Either way, the outcome will provide no small amount of insight into how strictly local planning authorities are willing to enforce the new framework - and may set precedents for similar proposals nationwide.
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