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The national headlines
belonged to the scrapping of the 50p tax rate, and the government's curious
decision to alienate everyone over 65 - but there were some elements of
yesterday's budget which will have some interesting implications for the retail
market over the next couple of years.
Perhaps the aspect mentioned
most often by retail experts is over something that the budget didn't do, rather than that which it
did. With no respite coming from the Chancellor over the impending 5.6%
increase in business rates next month, the cost base for retailers will
increase over the next year - and will be in no way offset by inflation, or the
cut in corporation tax.
Documents released yesterday
indicate that government revenue will be around £592 billion will be raised in
the 2012/13 financial year - up £3 billion on 2011/12; and the increase in
business rates accounts for a third of this figure.
The decision to relax Sunday
trading laws for eight weeks over the summer seems almost like a piece of
opportunism, rather than a carefully thought-out piece of legislation, and has
gained mixed reviews since its announcement. CBRE's Jonathan de Mello called it
a 'timely boost', and that any other decision would represent a 'missed
opportunity'; whilst the Association of Convenience Stores have labelled it 'devastating',
as it will cost local shops around £480 million in lost trade.
Below-inflation minimum wage
increases for adults and freezing the youth rates will certainly be music to
the ears of under-pressure retailers; and the increase in personal tax
allowances should eventually help consumer spend. The question is whether this
increase is coming soon enough - as by April 2013, consumers will have had
another year of purse-string-tightening, and the requisite shift in consumer behaviour
will be a lot more difficult to engender.
This budget rather gives an
impression of the government leaving the retail market in the doldrums for the
time being, and rather hoping that the one-time cash injection provided by the
Olympic summer can stave off total catastrophe until the population in general has
more disposable income in 2013 and 2014. There are, of course, longer term
issues over the market which need to be addressed - but the chance for a shot
in the arm has gone, and retailers are now left
to make the best of what they can out of 2012.
For more from EGi on the Budget - see the Focus Blog for a summary on the impact on regions & click here for a summary of all the major budget stories.
KPMG have this week published
research which indicates that retailers worldwide are beginning to come round
to the view that effective implementation of mobile technology is eclipsing
more traditional ways of generating business.
The
research, compiled following a survey of 350 senior financial officers of
global retailers and consumer brands, also indicates that a decrease in annual revenue is widely
expected, with opinion varying from country to country on how far mobile
technology can help to maximise sales.
The
Although
it does indicate a lukewarm leaning towards the benefits of mobile
transactions, those percentages seem incredibly low. Especially when
considering further insight by KPMG published in September last year, which
indicated that over 90% of financial services executives believed mobile
payments were 'yet to go mainstream'. This is in spite of the fact that an
estimated $3 billion worth of transactions were processed via mobiles last year
- four times the amount for 2010.
What
figures, then, can we expect when mobile transactions really take off? We could be looking at
astronomical numbers - and it's then even more alarming to consider that less
than four
out of ten retail CFOs in this country remain, at present, unconvinced of its
merits. Perhaps it's down to an inherent mistrust of new technologies, and 'Big Brother' paranoia thwarting appropriate progress in the fusion between the old and the new.
Do we,
then, continue with the slow progression towards (and begrudging acceptance of)
a coalescence of modern technology and traditional retail values; or do we do
away with the myopia, and give mobile technology the chance it deserves in the
immediate future to help resurrect a broken retail market?
Regular readers of our retail blog will recall an earlier entry on the brewing row between owners and tenants of the Burlington Arcade on Piccadilly, W1, over plans to breath new life into the building.
Meyer Bergman, the European real estate firm that bought the Grade II-listed arcade in October 2010, has now revealed the first pictures of proposed new restoration works following the receipt of Planning and Listed Building Consent.
Work has now started and the first phase, which will focus on restoring the upper elements of the arcade, is expected to be complete by the end of April. It involves the installation of up-lighting and the re-painting of the painted elements in the original ecru white colour used in 1819 when the arcade first opened.
Work is being undertaken out of trading hours to allow shopkeepers to remain open for business throughout the process.
Markus Meijer, chief executive of Meyer Bergman, Burlington Arcade's co-owner, said: "We expect these works to be complete in time for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee celebrations and I am particularly excited that, once complete, we will have a view not seen for over 100 years and possibly not since Queen Victoria celebrated her Diamond Jubilee in 1897."
I'm not going to dwell on the bad news that has hit high streets across the country this week. The collapse of Peacocks, Past Times and Pumpkin Patch is well reported on EGi.
Instead, I'm going to turn to an upbeat report which forecasts that the Olympics is set to drive a 3.5% growth in retail sales in the West End in 2012.
The research, compiled by Springboard for the New West End Company, shows that retailers in the West End are optimistic that sales will peak at £7.7bn this year with further momentum gained during the Queen's Olympic Jubilee.
The report, A 2012 Retail Outlook, also found that 17.8% of total annual additional retail spend will occur in June and July, and that West End retailers expect to make an extra £16.6m in revenue as a direct consequence of the Olympics.
"2012 promises to be a summer like no other, and businesses throughout the
This week has been quite a revealing week for the retail industry with some of the
There have been some clear successes. House of Fraser, John Lewis, Sainsbury's, New Look, SuperGroup, Debenhams, Majestic Wine, Foyles, Morrisons and JD Sports have all reported increased like-for-like sales figures.
But there was a more worrying picture being painted by the likes of Home Retail Group, Tesco, Mothercare, Halfords and Thorntons, which all flagged up falling sales. Some of these lacklustre results come despite widespread discounting in the run up to Christmas, which will have hit retailers' pockets.
A clear opportunity or warning sign (depending if your glass is half full or half empty) for both retailers and landlords to pick out of these results lies in the blossoming online sales figures. They helped some retailers push through a tough trading period.
John Lewis said: "Our very successful multichannel and online operations have been at the heart of John Lewis' performance. All three John Lewis markets were instrumental in driving sales in this area, with johnlewis.com outperforming its market and seeing 27.2% growth."
"As the 'Click and Collect' facility has proved to be so popular, from next month the number of collection outlets will more than double to 116, including collection points in 84 Waitrose branches, with more being planned."
Debenhams' like-for-like sales increased by 1.4% including VAT in the 18 weeks to 7 January 2012. However, its online business, which it says is a key component of its multi-channel offer, delivered like-for-like sales increase of 34.8%.
Ellen Flood, retail expert from Shopow says: "The internet is developing as a key element of the retail landscape. Online shopping offers shoppers an incredible amount of choice, convenience and savings."
"What we will see this year is the evolution of the high street with leading retailers changing their approach, and in many cases their product lines, to reflect the tastes of the modern shopper."
The brewing row between the owners and tenants of the Burlington Arcade on Piccadilly, W1, has a distinct sense of déjà vu about it.
More than 34,000 people backed a petition in January 2010 calling for action after 150 traders were ejected from Portobello Market, W11, in favour of an All Saints store.
They argued that the changes to Lipka's
Fast forward more than a year and a half, and the same argument is now being thrashed out under the arches of the Grade II-listed arcade in Piccadilly.
Meyer Bergman and Thor Equities, the owners of the Burlington Arcade, are threatening to replace boutique retailers, some of whom have traded there for more than 50 years, with glitzy brands such as Jimmy Choo. They have also hired New York-based retail guru Peter Marino, famed for his black leather cap and sunglasses combo, to head up a reported £2.5m makeover of the arcade.
Daniel Bexfield, who has run a silver shop in the Burlington Arcade for 13 years, has branded the joint venture's plans for the arcade as "
As the mood at the arcade becomes increasingly sour and Bexfield's protest gathers momentum - film director Michael Winner recently waded in - it's hard to see an easy and peaceful solution to this familiar dispute.
The retail property sector is set for another bruising as the Office for National Statistics' confirmed this morning that the retail prices index rose to 5.6% in September - the highest annual inflation rate for over 20 years.
The BRC estimates that the new RPI figure threatens to land the retail sector with a £350m business rates increase next April since the uniform business rate is set taking into account the RPI inflation rate at September 2011.
This of course comes at a time when retailers are already grappling with an increase in VAT, low bank lending levels and fragile consumer confidence.
BCSC has been quick to pounce, warning that high levels of business rates will impact retailers' expansion plans. It will in turn also affect the viability of retail development, which is dependent on securing retailers and acceptable levels of rental income.
BCSC, in its letter to local government minister Bob Neill today, writes: "As occupiers' business rates liability continues to increase, a greater share of occupancy costs will be absorbed by rates, eroding potential rental values and therefore the viability of proposed developments."
It is evidently time for the government to start paying closer attention to its independent review of the
Interesting news this morning that Sainsbury's has acquired online entertainment company Global Media Vault for £1m. It is a very clear sign of the supermarket's ambitions to embrace the booming online market. And rightly so if the statistics are anything to go by. The
Sainsbury's acquisition follows the launch of Sainsbury's Entertainment website last November. GMV's digital database already includes over three million music, film and game assets for the
A raft of retailers provided a snapshot of the current fragile retail economy in their trading updates last week and it wasn't especially comforting.
Supermarket giant Tesco revealed a 0.5% fall in first-half like-for-like sales - excluding VAT and petrol - in the
Elsewhere on the high street,
However, despite the gloomy sales figures, the retail sector has not been hit by any significant administrations following the September rent quarter day. With some respite on the insolvency front, preparations are now firmly under way for what is hoped to be a boost in sales activity for retailers in the run up to Christmas.
It is also worth flagging up the recent Indian summer experienced in the
Diane Wehrle, research director at Springboard, said: "The last week of September, which included the week of unusually hot weather, represented the only week in the month in which footfall increased from last year (+2.4%) - in all other weeks during September footfall fell from last year. The result for the last week of the month is much more positive than the result for the same week in 2010, when footfall fell by -4.5%."


The September rent quarter day passed yesterday and, despite ongoing pressures on the high street, the general consensus amongst retail landlords is that it won't be marked by a raft of major retailer collapses.
Colliers International was upbeat today saying that it collected 94% of high street retail rents on the due date compared with 85% 12 months earlier.
Colliers' head of investment property management Mark Jarrett said: "Despite the pressures on the high street, we have found that nearly all rental payments have been processed on or before quarter day and retailers are proving to be surprisingly resilient."
There have been a couple of casualties in the last few days however. Liquidators were appointed to variety store retailer Hub, which was launched in 2010 by Poundland co-founder Dave Dodd, and administrators at BDO were appointed to electronics retailer Sonex Communications, the company behind 16 Sony Centre stores.
The September quarter day rent cheque is a tough one for retailers to write out as they are also buying stock for Christmas. However, banks are likely to be more lenient towards struggling retailer clients this quarter to allow them to make the most of the traditionally busy trading period.
One major retail landlord said this week: "I think this rent quarter day will be fine. Normally you hear noise - requests to pay rent monthly or delay payment - but I've heard nothing. The issue will be what happens in January."
