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Guest Post: RECon 2013 - Day Three

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As RECon 2013 draws to a close in the Las Vegas heat, CBRE head of consultancy Jonathan De Mello gives us his final recollections on an eventful few days.


"Tuesday at RECON - what a day!! The conference area was extremely busy as Tuesday was essentially the last day before everyone heads back home on the Wednesday. I was even busier than Monday with a host of meetings both planned and impromptu - really frantic but highly productive networking with lots of great new contacts and some interesting new brands that are keen on entering the UK and wider European market.

Now Americans aren't exactly known for being environmentally friendly, with BIG Oil, BIG cars and the ability to super-size pretty much anything, but the key theme I picked up from RECON this year - from a number of different US retailers - was their desire to build retail 'ecosystems.' 

This generally but not exclusively applies to retailers that also have wholesale and concession 'doors' in addition to free-standing stores and an omni-channel platform, but essentially relates to a desire to make money from a market overall through 'balancing' the ecosystem of all possible outlets, in addition to building brand equity. 

In the digital age this approach is becoming increasingly relevant, as retailers compete to trade in the best locations with high footfall in order to build up the brand which in turn fuels growth for their online business - which generally yields stronger profit margins for them. The ecosystem concept extends this further to incorporate wholesale and concession retail too, which again can in certain markets outperform free-standing stores from a profit margin perspective. 

Channel choice is therefore key, but free-standing stores are essential to this in terms of building up brand equity to drive sales through the other channels, as well as providing an outlet for click and collect services, which generate the highest margin of all given the delivery costs associated with pure online retail. Given the continued importance of free-standing stores - which in themselves will not typically generate stellar margins in very high footfall areas given these locations often have very high rents to match, as an industry I have often thought we should move towards trying to measure the positive impact of a free-standing store on brand equity. 

One way that this could be done is through applying metrics PR firms typically use - such as 'advertising equivalent' to footfall numbers going past a store. This would better aid retailers - and landlords - to understand and quantify the true benefit of having a store beyond just turnover and profit.

Wasn't planning on writing an essay for this blog but it has sort of turned into one - so moving on - it is impossible to write a blog on Vegas and not talk about the evening networking that goes on outside the convention centre. Tuesday night was particularly fruitful for me from that perspective with the NY Developers pool party at the Bellagio, a great dinner at the Mandarin Oriental with some current and new clients, and finally 1 Oak club at the Mirage, where a number of brokers were to be found engaging in a final bout of networking over drinks to wrap up their ICSC in style. It was a fitting end to a great trip to Vegas, and I for one will definitely be back for more next year!"

Guest Post: RECon 2013 - Day Two.

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CBRE's head of retail consultancy, Jonathan De Mello, takes us through the events of an exciting second day at the global shopping centre market conference in Las Vegas.

"It was a real mission to get out of bed at 5am on Monday morning, following the 10-hour flight the day before and consequent heavy jet lag. However, I am glad I did given the hundreds of delegates that were waiting in the conference room for the panel session at 7am when I got into the convention centre! Americans take the adage of work hard/play hard to new extremes, with many of them looking rather the worse for wear after a big night on the Vegas Strip, but still very much there and ready to do business on what must have been only a few hours sleep the next day.

It was great to be part of the panel session with some good questions put to us by the moderator on omni channel, the future of retail, property investment, innovation and other topics. As I was representing European retail, questions on the Eurozone inevitably came up, linked to retailers' current appetite for expansion within and beyond the European marketplace. It is clear listening to the other panellists that retail faces similar challenges around the world, though each country/region has its own particular issues, such as import duties in Brazil discouraging retailers to invest there, or lack of quality infrastructure in India, which presents significant logistical challenges.

Overall though the mood at the session and also during the first day of RECon itself was upbeat. Attendance numbers are well up on previous years and currently tracking ahead of pre-2008 levels. Delegates here, whilst mindful of the lessons learnt post-Lehman, seem to be looking forward to the future with positivity. The key word being used here is 'growth' in contrast to an extent with the UK where business sentiment seems to be a little less upbeat at present. However, it is only a matter of time - given how closely linked the UK and Europe are to the US - before that positivity begins to permeate into UK retail. It's about time too given we are currently in one of the longest downturns in the economic cycle since records began!

The convention centre itself is hugely impressive, with some opulent stands on display. There are three separate areas spread over the 1m sq ft exhibition space - each one of which could comfortably accommodate the entirety of the Mapic 'bunker.' Today was very much about pre-arranged client meetings as given the sheer size of the venue randomly bumping into people you hope to meet simply isn't feasible in the way it is at BCSC, Mapic or any of the European conferences. CBRE alone have brought circa 800 delegates from around the world, which gives you an idea of the scale of the event.  My meetings today were very much back to back, and mainly with retailers - many of which aren't currently present in the UK and Europe but are interested in the market, or have a fledgling presence but want to expand further. Some good new names coming to a retail centre near you soon - watch this space!"

Guest Post: RECon 2013, Las Vegas - Day One.

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RECon 2013, the global shopping centre market conference, is upon us again. And more than 30,000 industry figures are descending on Las Vegas for the summit this year. CBRE's head of retail consultancy, Jonathan De Mello, has sent his first report from the front line. Expect to hear more from him on this blog over the next four days.

"In a taxi on my way to Gatwick and RECon 2013 and very excited about my first ever trip out to what is the biggest get together of retail and property professionals in the world. I have attended MAPIC every year over the last 10 years, but everything I have heard about RECon is that it - in true American style - is a supersized version of that - on steroids with a huge side order of fries!

Sunday is CBRE's Cabana party at the Wynn pool, which unfortunately I am going to miss as my plane won't get into Vegas in time. The whole idea of networking in your swimming trunks by the pool is quite alien to us Brits, and probably with good reason given the average fitness level of Brits in property is likely to be sub-Vegas poolside standard! However, I am looking forward to the CBRE opening cocktail party at the Encore later - to catch up with a number of clients that are attending the event from around the world as well as CBRE colleagues I haven't seen for some time.

Looking ahead, these opening events are definitely the calm before the storm, with a whirlwind series of back to back winner takes all 30 minute meetings from Monday morning onwards into Wednesday when everyone heads home. Monday morning at 7am is the Global Delegates breakfast, and I am honoured to be part of a panel there representing Europe, with panellists also there from the US, Asia, and Latin America. It should be a good session given the questions that have been circulated in advance on the impact of omni channel and other topics, and I am hoping to provide some insight to delegates on these topics from a European perspective. If you are reading this blog and attending RECon, it would be great to see you there bright and early on Monday morning!

Approaching Gatwick now in record time - thanks to an 'out there' cab driver that sees speed limits more as guidelines than statutory law!"

Yesterday's Estates Gazette/BCSC Retail Summit gave the strongest impression yet that the industry is ready to cut loose the chains of its troublesome recent history, and focus on creating a bright and prosperous future.

The most stark indication of this attitude came from Distressed Property Taskforce chairman Mark Williams, who said categorically that the industry group was focused solely on the future - and it looks like being one borne of something of a revolution in retail property. 

Williams said what everyone already knows - that there is an oversupply of retail space in this country; but added that in some locations the oversupply is by a factor of around 50%, and that levels of regeneration not seen since World War II are necessary to recalibrate the retail market in those long-suffering locales.

Last year's BCSC Conference was laden with references to 'managing' town centres as one would a major shopping centre - and that theme was heavily expanded on yesterday. New River Retail's Charles Miller told the room that investment in a major mall is not just about what you're buying, but the surrounding area; and how crucial it is to create fusion, rather than friction, between the two.

It was mentioned on numerous occasions by more than one speaker that fractured town centre ownership is stymieing the requisite improvement in high streets, and engenders the old-style laissez-faire landlordship once leases are secured. 

In the interest of combating such attitudes, Peter Brett Associates launched their 'Town Centre Investment Management' (TCIM) initiative during the afternoon session. It is designed with the expressed intention of bringing investment back into the high street by using an adapted form of Local Authorities' CPO powers to bring about uniformity of town centre ownership.

Whilst these aren't necessarily new ideas, the belief is that with the momentum currently behind town centre regeneration and the ongoing political discussions around the subject, now could be the best time to force political will in the direction of supplying proper solutions to those well-documented town centre problems.

Political will could yet prove to be the greatest stumbling block to securing that bright future for the retail industry. Consents still fly in for out-of-town developments, occasionally going against the recommendation of planning officers, and there was a palpable scepticism in the room when asked if Local Authorities had the collective desire to make a policy such as TCIM work in the long term.

BCSC President and Chaiman Marcus Kilby said in his summary of the day's discussions that 2013 could yet be the year looked back on in a decade or so as the year in which the retail industry began its crucial evolution into an overwhelming success story. The first shoots of that evolution are present, without question; but there remain several overarching caveats that must be addressed before that first great leap forward.

M&S - Marketing and Seat-Covers?

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Any advertising executives out there may well be able to prove me wrong - but I don't think I've ever seen a campaign for a store opening which revolved around bicycle seats.

That novel approach is just what Marks & Spencers have adopted in promoting their new store in Amsterdam, working through the night to place branded seat-covers on the Dutch capital's some 1,000,000 bicycles:

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Suggestions as to how a retailer might tailor a similar campaign in the UK are welcome...

Guest Post: Outdoor Media and Retail Property

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In a climate where shop vacancy levels are continually on the increase, it may come as a pleasant surprise to hear that demand for prime billboard space in busy retail destinations remains high. Large-format outdoor advertising sites can generate important new and incremental revenue streams for retailers, landlords and managing agents, explains blowUp Media Group Managing Director, Katrin Robertson.

For advertisers, getting their brands noticed at the point-of-sale when people are in a buying mode is of paramount importance for influencing buyer behaviour. Therefore non-traditional outdoor advertising sites in and around shopping malls and bustling High Street locations are highly sought after.


For retail landlords, giant banners, building wraps and even digital screens, can also offer a great way to secure vacant premises, contain and fund restoration work, beautify city centres and generally leverage advertising revenue from existing properties on a short term or ongoing basis.

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Banners can help to disguise vacant properties and keep an area looking bright and vibrant rather than appearing empty or run down. This helps to keep rent prices buoyant in the area and can form an important bridging gap when properties are not leased.

Building wraps also offer excellent protection during shop renovations, concealing unsightly building work and keeping the high street looking clean and tidy.

On a practical level building wraps can encase scaffolding and protect passers-by from the mess and noise of building work. The light weight mesh materials of the wrap also allows light to permeate the property beneath.

Building wraps can mimic the original façade and showcase what the property will look like once renovations are complete. Printed façades can be important for historic buildings requiring long term repair work. Ad revenue can help to fund conservation projects and contribute towards city beautification, as was the case during restoration work carried out to the historic Tower of London.

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For retailers, banners can provide powerful brand building opportunities that ensure their premises stand out from the crowd. During the Games, a hot bed for gigantic banners and eye catching building wraps, John Lewis wrapped several key stores across the UK to highlight its role as the Official Department Store Provider to the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Their flagship store wrap (right) consisted of a 4,000 square foot Union Flag, highly visible along Oxford Street at a time when visitors to London swelled to over 10 million.

Outdoor advertising sites can provide long term opportunities for landlords in areas with significant footfall and proximity to retail destinations. More advertisers are embracing digital signage as a way of bringing their brand stories to life using full motion video.  Digital delivers cut through and brings new flexibility to Out of Home, and has the additional benefit of being remotely update-able at the click of a button. Digital signage also enables multiple advertising campaigns to run consecutively with the potential to earn higher ad revenues.

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When looking for an outdoor specialist to partner with, property specialists should look for a one stop shop to help realise their project from conception through to delivery.  Generally speaking, Giant Posters need approval from the authorities, so selecting a company with both an in depth understanding of planning permissions and excellent relationships with local authorities is a must. Operational experience, safety track records and sales acumen are all integral to ensuring your site looks good and is constantly earning ad revenue.

Well executed banners can lift an area by creating clean, bright, modern looking spaces. Great advertising campaigns are also well received, fun and create 'talk-ability' amongst the public. Done well, outdoor advertising can generate significant returns for landlords looking to leverage their portfolios.

BlowUP media specialise in large-scale outdoor advertising, and currently manage over 300 locations - the largest such network in Europe.

http://www.blowup-media.co.uk/

Revolutionary Retail.

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Marks and Spencer's 150,000 sq ft Cheshire Oaks outlet opens today, marking the culmination of a seven-year project for the retailer, and perhaps a new dawn in sustainable retail development.

The store is M&S' second-largest outlet in the U.K. behind the Oxford Street flagship, and opens during a troublesome year for the brand in which profits have dipped and heads have rolled. 

From an environmental point of view, the store seems a success without even trading so much as a penny. Features such as the breathable walls, displacement ventilation, biomass boiler and the rainwater harvesting system will all contribute to the a reduction in the store's carbon usage, energy consumption and reliance on mains supply.

To see such a prominent retail brand follow through with an environmental project of this scale is indeed encouraging, and has drawn deserved acclaim even from those who criticised the project soon after its inception. But for CEO Mark Bolland and his fellow M&S executives, what will surely matter most is what level of commercial success the store achieves.

To this end, the retailer has chosen the Cheshire Oaks outlet as the first to feature free Wi-Fi - soon to be rolled out nationwide - to complement other innovations such as QR codes, dotted around the store in order to supply customers with more information about products and the shop itself.

Staff will be armed with iPads to help navigate patrons around the various elements of the store, including an 18,000 sq ft 'Home' department - larger than that of Oxford Street - and the new skincare section. There are also deli counters and bakeries located around the store, in addition to two cafes.

Being, as it is, an unprecedented venture in terms of both product range and store design, the shop will undoubtedly provide the 'unique customer experience' mentioned by M&S director of retail, Steve Rowe. The challenge for Marks and Spencer is to ensure that the shop's performance doesn't suffer once the novelty factor disappears, as with an ambitious and revolutionary project such as this, the key to long-term success is sustainability.

Environmentally, Marks and Spencer have ensured that the store is possibly more sustainable than any other in the country - but they have to remain ahead of the curve in terms of technological innovation and product selection to ensure longevity for the store's commercial success.

Westfield Bradford: A new dawn, or a repeated cycle?

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For Bradford residents, last month's announcement that Marks & Spencer and Next had agreed deals to anchor Westfield's proposed mega-mall in their city might have given them a sense of deja-vu.

The news would have sounded strikingly similar to something they may also have heard in May 2008, since which time the project has suffered almost irreversible damage at the hands of the recession, leading many in the town to abandon hope that the proposed scheme will ever get built.

Construction on the development was abandoned in February 2009, and the 12-acre site has lain vacant ever since. The 'hole-in-the-ground' is encircled by graffiti-plastered hoardings which illustrate in no uncertain terms the level of resentment felt in the town towards Westfield - initially latent, now vociferous - and exacerbated in no small part by the Australian developer's financial commitments to their schemes in the south.

The battle to redevelop Croydon's Whitgift Centre now appears to be at the forefront of Westfield's plans for the U.K. - with the developer claiming it is ready to spend £1 billion on the project. It emerged yesterday that the company wants to treble that investment across the UK - but with an expressed focus on London-based developments. 

A parody Westfield Bradford twitter account commented: "Westfield's £3bn commitment includes Bradford...to the tune of £12.70...including VAT", before adding: "...there is actually no evidence Westfield wants to spend £12.70 in Bradford - sorry if I got your hopes up."

This rather accurately summarises the sentiment in Bradford surrounding Westfield. They have had to stand by whilst the company plunged around £1,743m into Westfield Stratford City, simultaneously scaling down the Bradford project from a £350m scheme into a £275m scheme - all against the backdrop of a big, empty patch of land in their city centre. Now, with Westfield claiming to be looking at a £3bn investment in the UK, there remains no real indication that we won't be back here again in four years, with retailers once again re-affirming their commitment to a mall which only exists on paper, in a city exasperated by endless setbacks.

I've no doubt that Westfield are doing all they can to deliver the Bradford scheme, and they will point to the fact that the anchor deals are for the revised development given permission last October, indicating that the scheme remains deliverable. However; until the mall is open and thriving, the Yorkshire city's level of contempt, frustration and despair will remain ardent - and even then, it might not fully disappear.
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NPPF and an Oxfordshire squabble.

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At the beginning of last month, I mentioned on Twitter that LXB Retail's Banbury Gateway was the subject of some Planning-Policy based protests from owners of town centre schemes, concerned that the development would have an adverse impact on town centre vitality in the long run.

The interactive map below gives a concise summary of the positions held by each of the scheme owners (click the icons for information, zoom out & drag to view all three):


The main criticism being aimed at LXB's proposed 295,000 sq ft development is that the sequential assessment undertaken by the developer is unsatisfactory, as it complies with the requirements of 2009's Planning Policy Statement 4 (PPS4), rather than the National Planning Policy Framework published in March. As such, there is the assertion that LXB cannot adequately demonstrate that the scheme is a sustainable development that will lead to sustainable growth, nor can it prove to a satisfactory level that it will not have a detrimental impact on Banbury town centre. Therefore, the application should be refused under paragraph 27 of the new planning policy framework.

LXB argue that the test was indeed adequate, as was agreed by the Local Planning Authority, and that the guidelines stated on such matters by the new policy framework are broadly consistent with the requirements it has already satisfied. They say that scheme does not stymie any current town centre investment plans, and cannot be shown to have a material adverse effect on nearby centres.

The application for the scheme was submitted in December 2011, and as such is one of many that is currently under consideration amid the backdrop of the NPPF without the legislation being in place when the proposals were being formalised. Many elements of this particular application were tailored to the draft NPPF from June 2011, but that will not sate the incandescence of protesters who feel that the framework validates the Town Centre First initiative more than ever, and to dismiss policy-based criticism of proposals submitted prior to its formal implementation is almost to discredit it altogether.

This is why I feel that this particular issue is one of a few developing around the country which may prove to make or break the new framework. From the point of view of those opposed to the scheme, LXB has adhered to planning and sequential requirements which, similar as they might be, are not exactly like those outlined in the NPPF, and as such it ought to be incumbent upon them to demonstrate under the new guidelines that their scheme ensures town centre prosperity, rather than jeopardises it.

From the point of view of LXB, they have adhered to the planning constraints and followed necessary guidelines in order to acquire the resolution to grant permission verdict precisely one day before the new framework was published. Does the NPPF dictate that they must carry out all of these necessary assessments again? Are Cherwell Council likely to use the new framework to delay the delivery of the scheme - and with it, the relocation of Prodrive?

My view is that the scheme will probably go ahead as stated in the original application, but with a series of section 106 conditions which would hopefully ensure the satisfaction of all parties - specifically, that the scheme is linked to the town centre by public transport, and perhaps an amnesty on securing any more retailers with a town centre presence to the scheme (if that's possible to enforce).

Either way, the outcome will provide no small amount of insight into how strictly local planning authorities are willing to enforce the new framework - and may set precedents for similar proposals nationwide.
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I was interested to read last week about RICS launching a new small business lease, in order to ease the process by which new and independent retailers can acquire vacant high street space.

The move comes as high street vacancy rates sit at 11% nationwide; with some forecasts claiming that marginalised areas could hit 50% by 2015, when around half of high street leases across the country are due to expire. So, with that rather bleak prediction looming in the background, RICS have reached out to the independent trader, and offered a simpler way of navigating the 'costly and complicated' process of obtaining their first commercial lease. 

This partially mirrors an initiative taken some years ago by the British Property Federation; who published a 'short commercial lease' template; albeit without a discernible leaning towards either 'new' or 'independent' retailers; and - curiously - with no specified limit on lease length (aside from the word 'short'). 

Embedded within the wording of RICS' small business lease, however, are a couple of indications of current trends - for example, the lease cannot be used for an agreed term of over five years; the national average lease length currently sits at around 5.3 years. The lease also includes a break clause - something which was included in almost one third of leases agreed last year.

It also follows that RICS would specifically target small businesses and 'new and independent' retailers, after figures from 2011 indicated that such outlets clearly outperformed national multiples in terms of high street openings. They are, evidently, the best bet to try and stave off that portended 50% vacancy figure, as bigger retail brands continue to seek fewer, larger stores in refurbished megamalls or out-of-town parks; rather than forge ahead with high street expansion.

Hopefully, an easier-to-navigate path to high street occupation will result in a healthier vacancy rate figure in future years - and will put and end to landlords' temptation to charge absurd nominal rents to national chains in order to avoid vacancy rates. 

The lease template is available to download here.
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Something Fishy at the Trafford Centre...

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There were some local rumours in April that the Barton Square annex to Capital Shopping Centres' Trafford Centre would soon feature an aquarium. This was confirmed towards the end of June, when CSC submitted proposals to Trafford Council to convert part of the old Habitat store into a sea life centre.

Regulars at the Trafford Centre will hope that the new attraction will look just as spectacular as similar ventures undertaken in retail schemes around the world. 

Below is Siam Ocean World, the 2.8 million litre aquarium that features beneath Bangkok's Siam Paragon mall:

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Further inspiration comes from the 10-million-litre Dubai Aquarium and Underwater Zoo at The Dubai Mall:

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It's not yet known which species of marine life will be showcased at Barton Square - but the operators might do well to learn lessons from Dubai. Ten percent of the sharks in the aquarium were killed before the mall had even opened, as Sand Tiger Sharks did what they do best, and decided they would pick off the weaker members of the community. The aquarium then made news again in 2010, as a crack in the reinforced glass caused water to leak into the main shopping area.

Should the proposal be approved, the aquarium is hoped to average 1,000 visitors daily, and will be run by the largest UK sea life centre operator, Merlin. 

Analysis: April Sales Figures.

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The ONS today released April's sales figures, revealing that on a month-to-month basis the British public has spent less across all sectors of retail - resulting in a 2.3% decrease in total retail sales.

This has, in fact, largely been the case over the last four years. March tends to provide an early-year boost to sales figures, resulting in a return to something approaching normalcy in April - indicated by the chart below.

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Perhaps a fairer reflection on how April 2012 performed is to look at a year-on-year comparison. Yearly sales overall were down almost £500 million on April 2011, and sales excluding petrol were down by around £288 million. Some sectors, however, saw an increase in spending - namely non-specialised stores, household goods and non-store retailing - which I'll come to later. The graph below indicates that this April essentially returned to levels seen in years previous (when petrol sales are excluded) - this could point to April 2011 being something of a Royal-Wedding-inspired anomaly.
I think the decline in year on year figures can largely be explained away by a combination of the lack of nationally-celebrated nuptials (with the additional bonus of an extra bank holiday) and, of course, the wettest April since 1910. The fact that some sectors seem to have picked up since 12 months ago is also slightly encouraging.

One interesting piece of information I picked up from the figures is that although some sectors of retail increased slightly; the only one showing a steady increase over a number of years is 'non-store retailing' - which, one can surmise, reveals the ever-increasing tendency to shop online. 
This graph indicates the increase in sales figures for non-store retailing in the month of April since 2000. Despite the aforementioned £288 million decrease in overall sales from 2011-12, non-store sales increased by around £162.5 million overall. This simply points to the robustness of the on-line retail environment, and to the nature of the challenge facing those who wish to return Britain's high streets and town centres to their former glory. 

The on-line retail revolution was pointed to by GVA's 'Unlocking Town Centre Retail Developments' today as one of the main reasons for the high street decline - as retailers continue to row back their requirements for physical space in lieu of pursuing multi-channel sales. On this evidence, it's hard to see how the high street can fight back, and enjoy a similar upward curve in years to come.

'Portas Pilot' Entries - A Few Favourites...

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Housing & Local Government Minister Grant Shapps tweeted yesterday that the successful bids for town centre regeneration funds via the 'Portas Pilot' scheme will be announced at the end of the month.

With hundreds of entries reportedly clamouring for the cash, I had a look at a few of the video entries to get an impression of how the town teams were going about pitching to the government.

With an extremely broad creative brief, it is of little surprise that each submission differs from the last - and as such, it's extremely difficult to judge which ones will be successful. There are some which unimaginatively point the camera at vacant stores with the word 'Help' emblazoned across the screen, and others who have clearly tried to stand out by engaging the town in wacky dance routines in various (former) retail hotspots.

The ones which I found most appealing came from towns such as St. Austell, Warwick, Grantham and Aylsham; as they seemed to have more of a focus on what their towns specifically require in order to regain the vitality of ages past - and already appear to have a plan as to how best use the government cash.  

There were also interesting entries from Ripon and St. Ives, who have focused their regeneration plans around unique heritage sites, and embraced the potential of tourism to help boost town centre footfall.

The most bizarre entry comes from Exmouth; wherein a teenage girl is apparently beamed down from space, and then escorted around the town by someone looking suspiciously like her sister, before concluding that the townsfolk are spending entirely too much time larking about by the beach, and not enough on their 'quite nice' high street, before she's whisked back into the orbit. The tagline, 'bring them here, keep them here", is altogether more sinister than was surely intended.

Also, if you'd like to see perhaps the worst impression of Mary Portas ever performed - check out Tamworth's effort

Some common themes mentioned in almost every entry are the failure of councils to come up with innovative town-centre-saving solutions over a number of years (or even decades); the cost of town centre parking or the lack thereof; proliferation of supermarkets & out-of-town developments causing town centres to falter, and the impact that on-line shopping has had on the high street. These, of course, are aspects that the government and Ms. Portas are already painfully aware of.

One wonders how the winners will eventually be chosen. Do the video entries carry as much weight as the application form? If so, does 'view count' get factored into the final reckoning? Are CACI ratings consulted in order to determine the most deserving of town centre investment? 

We'll find out in a couple of weeks - but for now, I'll champion Warwick's entry one last time...local bias at it's best!

The "Average" Retail Space.

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IPD this week published their comprehensive annual lease review, which indicated that 2011 saw another decline in the average lease length taken for retail space - not to mention another increase in the percentage of leases containing lease breaks.

The study shows that over the past nine years, the average lease length has fallen from just shy of ten years to just under seven. In addition, the percentage of leases which now include a break has doubled.

The figures got me wondering about 'averages' across the retail market - and whether the available space across the country could be distilled down into one unit; the ultimate 'average space', to display what's typically available to UK retailers at this point in time.

Using samples from EGi's researched availability, which currently holds over 12,000 retail units being marketed, I found that the average retail unit currently available measures 2,941 sq ft; would be marketed with a lease length of 11.82 years; and would have an asking rent of £43,281 per annum.

Breaking these figures down by Property Type:

'Average' Shopping Centre Availability: 2,482 sq ft; 11.45 years; £72,195 per annum.

'Average' Retail Park Availability: 12,800 sq ft; 14 years; £171,094 per annum.

'Average' Other Retail Space: 1,837 sq ft; 11.57 years; £29,437 per annum.

Breakdown by Lease Type:

'Average' New FRI Leases: 3,069 sq ft; 11 years; £57,303 per annum.

'Average' Lease Assignments: 3,746 sq ft; 13.23 years; £111,547 per annum.


Whilst this is only a sample, it indicates that the space being marketed at the moment would, on average, be looking for a retailer to commit to a lease length far above that which is representative of the market. The difference between assignments and new leases can probably be attributed to struggling brands trying to divest themselves of lengthy, expensive obligations agreed during better economic times.

The majority of the 'other' retail space is located on high streets - and the fact that, on average, the £/sq ft ratio is closer to that of retail parks than shopping centres shows the level to which those spaces have struggled to attract occupiers. Indeed, shops have been going for as little as £1 per annum - so perhaps it's surprising to see the figure so high!

On average, then, retailers are currently best off going for a new lease on an out-of-town scheme; whilst the most costly deal would be agreeing to take an assignment at a shopping centre - which honestly comes as no surprise at all. 
The Local Government Association published a survey earlier this month which tackles the issue of high street 'clustering', which I have blogged about before on here, and once again it is of little surprise to see such things heavily lamented by council members. What I find particularly interesting about this survey, however, is the type of premises that councillors feel will help most to regenerate struggling high streets.

The officers rate books and clothes stores, restaurants, and local butchers and bakers highest with over 90% of those surveyed claiming these types of outlets were the most important elements needed to help restore the future vitality of Britain's high streets. Surprisingly, however, only 68% seemed to think that leisure elements such as cinemas and bowling alleys were of importance to ensuring town centre recovery.

The results seem to largely ignore the fact that supermarkets have largely made the traditional high street model redundant via a combination of favourable parking provision and unbeatable prices over a sustained period of time, perhaps pointing to a degree of romanticism. This feeling doesn't appear to be shared by developers and shopping centre owners nationwide.

Legal & General's Castle Place Market in Trowbridge; Harbourside Developments' Telford Shopping Centre; Capital Shopping Centres' Potteries Centre in Stoke and Key Properties' Kingsmead Centre in Farnborough have all received permission since the start of 2012 for either a cinema-led extension, or a reconfiguration of existing space to accommodate a cinema. Not to mention the plans submitted in February by Hammerson to develop almost 90,000 sq ft of leisure and restaurant space at Centrale, in Croydon.

Whilst these are only a handful of examples, they represent the major retail developers' recognition of how beneficial leisure space can be in a town centre scheme. On the surface, cinemas and bowling alleys, to use the survey's examples, are footfall-drivers and dwell-time boosters; but, crucially, they also offer at least an imitation of the social aspect of town centre shopping that has perhaps been lost through the proliferation of supermarkets.

If town centres are indeed to recover to the level we want them to, they have to provide something that is unattainable in out-of-town schemes or even on-line. This, regrettably, puts an arrow in the idea that the traditional high-street model can be revived, but it gives license to look towards a model that can ensure future success by driving shoppers into the centre of towns to engage in activities besides shopping.

Developers seem to have cottoned on to this notion - and perhaps it's time councils did too.
It's telling that the responses from the British Retail Consortium and BCSC to yesterday's new planning guidelines were altogether more positive than those given less than a week ago following the budget. 

The main section of the significantly-condensed planning document which would concern retailers and developers is that which deals with the future vitality of town centres, and how planning guidelines can assist the market in making vibrant, competitive, successful centres a reality; and not just a celebrity's dream.

It was pleasing to see the document make reference to the individuality of town centres, and recognise that local authorities need to govern what constitutes sustainable development in their area. The authorities can define the extent of their town centres, and develop their area plans around these parameters. This in turn will mean a greater power to refuse permission to schemes which are seen as being detrimental to the progress of urban recovery, and thereafter, development.

In strengthening the Town Centre First mechanism, the framework has certainly put faith in the long-term ability of struggling town centres to recover - but in terms of shopping and retail, the question remains whether the problems are too endemic for a planning reform to fix. Several planning hurdles may have been removed for town centre retail schemes from a development point of view - but can consumer behaviour change enough to make them 'viable' and 'sustainable'? And how many retailers will survive until the benefits of the guidelines are felt?

The public often give their backing to retail-led regeneration schemes in town centres, only to then either vote with their wallet and shop on-line, or to drive to the out-of-town retail park, where the stores are larger and the parking free. There also needs to be a little more help given to retailers in the battle to pay rent (an opportunity missed in the budget); as there is little point in making the delivery of a gleaming new project easier if there is nobody there to fill it.

The next couple of years will be of interest - as we observe just how quickly the reforms catch on, and how many schemes are turned down due to failing the requisite impact assessments. Only then might we see retailers, developers and, crucially, shoppers turn their eye towards the town centre rather than away from it. The NPPF may be seen as the first step towards town centre recovery - but make no mistake - there's a marathon still to run.

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Budget 2012: The Impact on Retail

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The national headlines belonged to the scrapping of the 50p tax rate, and the government's curious decision to alienate everyone over 65 - but there were some elements of yesterday's budget which will have some interesting implications for the retail market over the next couple of years.

Perhaps the aspect mentioned most often by retail experts is over something that the budget didn't do, rather than that which it did. With no respite coming from the Chancellor over the impending 5.6% increase in business rates next month, the cost base for retailers will increase over the next year - and will be in no way offset by inflation, or the cut in corporation tax.

Documents released yesterday indicate that government revenue will be around £592 billion will be raised in the 2012/13 financial year - up £3 billion on 2011/12; and the increase in business rates accounts for a third of this figure.

The decision to relax Sunday trading laws for eight weeks over the summer seems almost like a piece of opportunism, rather than a carefully thought-out piece of legislation, and has gained mixed reviews since its announcement. CBRE's Jonathan de Mello called it a 'timely boost', and that any other decision would represent a 'missed opportunity'; whilst the Association of Convenience Stores have labelled it 'devastating', as it will cost local shops around £480 million in lost trade.

Below-inflation minimum wage increases for adults and freezing the youth rates will certainly be music to the ears of under-pressure retailers; and the increase in personal tax allowances should eventually help consumer spend. The question is whether this increase is coming soon enough - as by April 2013, consumers will have had another year of purse-string-tightening, and the requisite shift in consumer behaviour will be a lot more difficult to engender.

This budget rather gives an impression of the government leaving the retail market in the doldrums for the time being, and rather hoping that the one-time cash injection provided by the Olympic summer can stave off total catastrophe until the population in general has more disposable income in 2013 and 2014. There are, of course, longer term issues over the market which need to be addressed - but the chance for a shot in the arm has gone, and retailers are now left to make the best of what they can out of 2012.


For more from EGi on the Budget - see the Focus Blog for a summary on the impact on regions & click here for a summary of all the major budget stories.

The Best Puns In Retail....

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One of my favourite podcasts opened this week with a canon of the presenters' favourite shop names, and as fears grow over the homogenisation of the U.K. retail scene, I feel a timely celebration of the most inventive store names from around the globe is needed...

As outlined in this Guardian piece from January - fish and chip shops have perhaps the richest area of comedy from which to procure their name. 'A Salt and Battery' the winner in this category - and I'm not just saying that for the halibut.

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The delightfully named 'Hair Off The Dog' canine grooming salon recently took a unit on a high street in Newbury; and if you're looking for a 'superb' name for a cafe - look no further than this effort from Greenfield, Indiana.

My favourites from the U.K. are 'Amps & Decs', a music store based in north England; and 'Jamaican Me Hungry' - a Caribbean restaurant in Liverpool. Overall, though, the crown has to go to Toronto-based sports store, 'The Merchant of Tennis'.

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Hats off to you all!

Supermarkets: Good, Bad, Or just too convenient?

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EGi this week reported some good news for the supermarket investment market via a report from IPD; which indicated that it was one of the fastest-growing commercial property sectors. This is the first time that IPD has grouped supermarkets in an investment category of their own when conducting its retail investment research - and much can be read into the fact that supermarkets appear to represent a much less risky prospect for investors than other retail assets, as well as offering a higher return than other prospective investments.

Good news, then, for anyone looking to dive into supermarket ownership - and also for any of the big four seeking to boost their expansion trail by divesting themselves of any owner-occupied premises - but what might this mean for the wider retail market?

Henry Porter launched a scathing attack on supermarkets on Sunday - calling for a 'Leveson enquiry for supermarkets' to attempt to prevent these retail behemoths from, as he sees it, fattening our children, ruining town centres, causing illiteracy, encouraging alcoholism and re-introducing a form of slave labour in order to boost profits.

So, to anyone of a similar persuasion to Porter, the IPD report should make for worrying reading; as with a dearth of truly healthy investment options currently available - it could foreshadow another unstoppable extension of the power wielded by superstores.

A common argument in defence of supermarket proliferation is that we, the consumers, are complicit in their expansion by opting to give in to their lower prices and higher levels of convenience - but what happens when those factors have such force that they destroy all existing competition, removing the element of choice entirely?

Testimony from Barnstaple last year tells a typical and all-too-often heard story of how the fanfares that greeted the arrival of a new Tesco Extra were soon drowned out by the 'high street closures' klaxon just months down the line; and residents have now taken matters into their own hands - petitioning North Devon Council to stop any further supermarkets coming to the town. They are not alone, with dozens of campaigns nationwide now actively seeking to discourage supermarkets from operating in their area.

Whilst I wouldn't go as far as Porter has, and lay the blame a disproportionate amount of the world's ills squarely at the door of Tesco-et-al; the Government may well want to look a little more closely at this issue, and possibly stymie the growth of supermarkets in certain areas in order to give town centres a better chance of recovery. 

Bookies vs Portas - who's your money on?

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This month has seen a response from the betting industry to the assertion made by Mary Portas that gaming outlets were a 'blight on the high street', and that their proliferation is creating unsightly gambling 'clusters' on struggling retail hotspots.

The perception that December's High Street Review gave was that betting shops are wandering unbidden into troubled towns, sneaking into premises once occupied by banks, building societies and estate agents in order to fleece the community of its cash. Senior industry figures have now hit back, claiming that betting shops are taking space that would otherwise have been vacant, and that their contribution to both local and nationwide economies should dissipate any anti-gambling rancour.

The figures stack up for the gambling industry - employing an average of five workers per store, and paying an average of £10,000 annually in business rates as they contribute around £3 billion to the UK economy every year. With this in mind, it's surely no bad thing to put them in a separate use class, creating a level of authority at council level to decide whether or not there are valid enough economic factors to give approval to a gambling venue in their community.

Research from the Local Government Association suggests that the issue is not one of isolated resentment of betting shops, or indeed the idea of gambling, but rather an uneasiness within communities about how simple it appears to be for a new bookmaker to appear in their town centre. The survey also implies that the public perceive betting shops as being similar to sex stores, fast-food takeaways and tanning salons in that they are all 'blights' on the high street.

In my view, creating a new use class for gambling outlets could help to de-construct this negative perception, and shift public focus towards the economic benefits that a bookmakers can have on a local economy, outlined as they would be in any 'change of use' application. This may then result in more demand-led outlets nationwide, as communities look to the gambling industry to provide their high streets with a shot in the arm - when necessary.

I can understand why the Association for British Bookmakers is a little bent out of shape over the possibility of putting their stores in a separate use class; and sees it as a deliberate piece of restrictive policy against them. However, I think in time they might well find there is more to be gained from contributing to communities with the blessing of councils and the public than forcing an unwanted presence into retail centres through scattergun, unrestrained expansion. 

KPMG: Mobile Technology to Decide High Street 'Battle'

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KPMG have this week published research which indicates that retailers worldwide are beginning to come round to the view that effective implementation of mobile technology is eclipsing more traditional ways of generating business.

The research, compiled following a survey of 350 senior financial officers of global retailers and consumer brands, also indicates that a decrease in annual revenue is widely expected, with opinion varying from country to country on how far mobile technology can help to maximise sales.

The U.K. respondents appear to be the least enthused about the ability of mobile technology to deliver a much-needed boost to retail sales, with only 36% of the Britons surveyed stating that yes; the technology will drastically help improve sales over the next two years - compared with 46% in Germany, 44% in America, and 50% in India

Although it does indicate a lukewarm leaning towards the benefits of mobile transactions, those percentages seem incredibly low. Especially when considering further insight by KPMG published in September last year, which indicated that over 90% of financial services executives believed mobile payments were 'yet to go mainstream'. This is in spite of the fact that an estimated $3 billion worth of transactions were processed via mobiles last year - four times the amount for 2010.

What figures, then, can we expect when mobile transactions really take off? We could be looking at astronomical numbers - and it's then even more alarming to consider that less than four out of ten retail CFOs in this country remain, at present, unconvinced of its merits. Perhaps it's down to an inherent mistrust of new technologies, and 'Big Brother' paranoia thwarting appropriate progress in the fusion between the old and the new.

Do we, then, continue with the slow progression towards (and begrudging acceptance of) a coalescence of modern technology and traditional retail values; or do we do away with the myopia, and give mobile technology the chance it deserves in the immediate future to help resurrect a broken retail market?

I'd rather hope that more than 36% of retailers, agents and landlords in the U.K. would choose the latter.

Portas: 'Right Diagnosis; Wrong Prescription'.

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....At least that's the view that has been offered today by Phil Wrigley of LXB Retail and Majestic Wines, who has insisted that if the government were to adhere to the recommendations of Mary Portas' review, the High Street would be condemned to continue to plunge further into a 'Death Spiral', taking already ailing town centres with it.

Wrigley's own recommendation for our beloved urban centres to avoid this grim fate is to encourage increased conversion of high street premises to housing, which echoes some in-depth research conducted by think tank 'The Policy Exchange' in March last year. 

Both Wrigley and the Policy Exchange have championed the idea of increasing flexibility within the current planning structure to allow properties to under go a quicker and easier transition, if required, from Class A to Class C. The common criticism of the current planning system is that councils' obsession with 'maintaining the town centre', or 'supporting economic regeneration', means that they occasionally force buildings to stay within a certain use class, often refusing a change of use until the premises have been vacant for a number of years.

The reason for this is that councils consider planning applications within the confines of local development frameworks (LDF) set out roughly every decade to outline how they hope the area to develop. Change-of-use applications which appear out-of-line with the LDF are seldom given approval, no matter what their viability, with councils more inclined to agree to a short term solution which fits in with their development plan.

I don't particularly share Wrigley's overriding negativity about the recommendations Portas outlined in December last year; but his view, substantiated by the think tank, represents almost the exact opposite way that Portas could have gone with her suggestions. It is a view that was perhaps too radical to suggest to the current government, who have already relaxed change-of-use laws pertaining to office buildings, with so far less-than-resounding success.

Is Portas, as Wrigley puts it, "propping up a failing sector", or is she attempting to exacerbate a latent desire within the British public to return to thriving town centres, thereby resisting the temptation to consign traditional high streets to the history books? What is certain is that the government's implementation of any of Portas' recommendations will be put under intense scrutiny, as the queue of people waiting to say 'I told you so' gets longer by the day.

Burlington Arcade restoration begins

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Regular readers of our retail blog will recall an earlier entry on the brewing row between owners and tenants of the Burlington Arcade on Piccadilly, W1, over plans to breath new life into the building.

Meyer Bergman, the European real estate firm that bought the Grade II-listed arcade in October 2010, has now revealed the first pictures of proposed new restoration works following the receipt of Planning and Listed Building Consent.

 

 

 

Burlington Arcade 1.JPGWork has now started and the first phase, which will focus on restoring the upper elements of the arcade, is expected to be complete by the end of April. It involves the installation of up-lighting and the re-painting of the painted elements in the original ecru white colour used in 1819 when the arcade first opened. 

Work is being undertaken out of trading hours to allow shopkeepers to remain open for business throughout the process.

 

 

 

Burlington Arcade 2.JPGMarkus Meijer, chief executive of Meyer Bergman, Burlington Arcade's co-owner, said: "We expect these works to be complete in time for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee celebrations and I am particularly excited that, once complete, we will have a view not seen for over 100 years and possibly not since Queen Victoria celebrated her Diamond Jubilee in 1897."

 

Olympics set to fuel retail sales uplift

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I'm not going to dwell on the bad news that has hit high streets across the country this week. The collapse of Peacocks, Past Times and Pumpkin Patch is well reported on EGi.

 

Instead, I'm going to turn to an upbeat report which forecasts that the Olympics is set to drive a 3.5% growth in retail sales in the West End in 2012.

 

The research, compiled by Springboard for the New West End Company, shows that retailers in the West End are optimistic that sales will peak at £7.7bn this year with further momentum gained during the Queen's Olympic Jubilee.

 

The report, A 2012 Retail Outlook, also found that 17.8% of total annual additional retail spend will occur in June and July, and that West End retailers expect to make an extra £16.6m in revenue as a direct consequence of the Olympics.

 

London mayor Boris Johnson has the following erudite comment to make on the findings:

 

"2012 promises to be a summer like no other, and businesses throughout the West End now have a unique opportunity to reap the benefits when the world comes to the capital. London undoubtedly has the best shopping district in the world and I have every confidence that retailers are doing all they can to plan, prepare and profit from the Games."

 

Retail Crime: The 2011 Picture.

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The British Retail Consortium this week published the results from its annual survey on retail crime, and it makes for very interesting reading.

Taking a sample of 52 retailers who account for 53% of the total UK retail turnover, BRC painted a picture of retailers experiencing fewer acts of criminality than in 2010, but the cost per incident rising dramatically to the overall tune of 31%. This figure doesn't even include the costs of the August riots - which, instead of causing 2011 to become a giant anomaly, are spotlighted at the end of the report, rather than being factored into it.

Increased cost per incident is one theme seen throughout the report, as it goes through the various felonies in detail. Theft was down 19% on 2010, but each theft cost retailers £85.50, an increase of 21% year-on-year; and there's a similar tale with burglaries, the number of which decreased by 42% to the lowest figure in seven years, yet the cost per incident increased by 83% to £2,093 for every offence. Additionally, employee theft is down 24%, but the value stolen each time has gone up 18%. 

A clearer picture is given by the statistics for robbery, violence towards staff and criminal damage; all of which saw an increase of 20%, 83% and 63% respectively on 2010 figures. Little solace can be taken from the fact that the 83% increase in violence towards staff is mainly verbal, with the acts of actual physical violence the lowest in seven years. Abuse in the workplace is, as the BRC puts it, an 'unacceptable threat', and they encourage retailers to be more willing to report incidents across the board to help put a stop to this.

In addition, the BRC calls for further investment from retailers in crime prevention, an increased awareness of the damage caused by fraud and e-crime to retailers - seen as an 'easy opportunity' for criminals, and further co-operation between the BRC and police forces. The BRC state that a replication of the scenes of August 2011 are 'conceivable', given the deepening economic crisis, and that they can play an important role in communicating effectively with businesses during moments of unrest.

It was just such a moment in August which threw criminality against retailers into the public spotlight - and the figures outlined on the impact of said events are rather harrowing. The riots affected 20,000 employees - 1.5% of the UK's retail workforce; they cost the retailers in the survey £18.3 million in theft, criminal damage, burglary, arson and store closures. Additionally, an impact on sales was experienced by 56% of those surveyed.

One can't help but think that, were the figures from the UK riots included in the report, the figures that indicate 'below-7-year-average' figures for theft, burglary, robbery and criminal damage would not look quite so rosy. If the BRC are correct in their suggestion that a similar spate of lawlessness could hit the UK this year, retailers have to make sure that they are better safeguarded against experiencing a similar loss.

The full report is available here.

Online success shines through Christmas results

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This week has been quite a revealing week for the retail industry with some of the UK's biggest retailers producing their Christmas trading results.

 

There have been some clear successes. House of Fraser, John Lewis, Sainsbury's, New Look, SuperGroup, Debenhams, Majestic Wine, Foyles, Morrisons and JD Sports have all reported increased like-for-like sales figures.

 

But there was a more worrying picture being painted by the likes of Home Retail Group, Tesco, Mothercare, Halfords and Thorntons, which all flagged up falling sales. Some of these lacklustre results come despite widespread discounting in the run up to Christmas, which will have hit retailers' pockets.

 

A clear opportunity or warning sign (depending if your glass is half full or half empty) for both retailers and landlords to pick out of these results lies in the blossoming online sales figures. They helped some retailers push through a tough trading period.

 

John Lewis said: "Our very successful multichannel and online operations have been at the heart of John Lewis' performance. All three John Lewis markets were instrumental in driving sales in this area, with johnlewis.com outperforming its market and seeing 27.2% growth."

 

"As the 'Click and Collect' facility has proved to be so popular, from next month the number of collection outlets will more than double to 116, including collection points in 84 Waitrose branches, with more being planned."

 

Debenhams' like-for-like sales increased by 1.4% including VAT in the 18 weeks to 7 January 2012. However, its online business, which it says is a key component of its multi-channel offer, delivered like-for-like sales increase of 34.8%. 

 

Ellen Flood, retail expert from Shopow says: "The internet is developing as a key element of the retail landscape. Online shopping offers shoppers an incredible amount of choice, convenience and savings."

 

"What we will see this year is the evolution of the high street with leading retailers changing their approach, and in many cases their product lines, to reflect the tastes of the modern shopper."

Big Brother Debate Sparks Unnecessary Fuss

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No, not the "celebrity" one.

There has been some furore recently emanating from human rights groups over the 'revelation' that shoppers' behavioural patterns are being tracked within retail schemes via their mobile phones.

It appears that, in a bid to better understand consumer behaviour, some of the major players in the market have advocated the tracking of mobile phones within their malls, indicating how shoppers operate. As the story has broken, it has inevitably sparked a 'Big Brother'-esque paranoia, despite the technology being categorically unable to store phone numbers, messages, internet history or any other personal information.

Upon reading what the technology does - I thought of it like this: You go into a mall, and Mr. Eye-in-the-sky stops seeing you as a human being with a past, two parents and a set of organs, and instead sees a neon cube with an identity code. Cube 30496745 then does X,Y,Z - leaves the mall, and then goes back to being a person.

The response to the use of tracking technology would suggest that there is a swat team on the roof of every mall in the country, waiting for the tracker to feed it something like: "Graham Shone just used a 'Next' voucher, then had a coffee - he's clearly a terrorist - move! move! move!". Perhaps its a personal thing, but I have no problem at all with anyone knowing where and in what order I do my shopping. In fact, good luck to them. My last trip to Westfield was so scattergun it would probably break the computer.

Using this technology is basically a more comprehensive and time-saving way of conducting surveys. The tracking is not designed to pigeon-hole individuals, but to create a better environment and experience for the collective. In addition, the technology is not only used in retail - as this eye-opening news item testifies. Why not embrace everything you can to help improve life for you and your customers?

A simplistic view, perhaps, but if you're that worried about your phone being tracked while you shop, then leave it at home - or switch it off. Yes, there are limits as to what should be monitored, but in my opinion this doesn't get near them. And think about this - if you're paying by card for your shopping, then surely your bank has even more sensitive information than Land Securities or Westfield will ever get hold of.

A New Year in Retail: 2012 Expectations.

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I think it's fair to say that 2011 was a turbulent year for the retail market, so it's hardly surprising that the New Year's Day hangovers had barely been allowed to pass before industry experts broke out the crystal ball and tarot cards to prognosticate what the new year would deliver.

There were mixed messages coming out immediately after January 1st, as reports of a festive boost in footfall for many high profile schemes were then counterbalanced with disappointing figures for footfall on New Year's Day. This can be explained, of course, by the fact that Boxing Day 2010 and January 1st 2012 were both Sundays; yet it's a neat microcosm of an industry that seems to breed a gloomy, mood-ruining story for every uplifting one.

The success stories over Christmas 2011 are fronted by the fact that both John Lewis and JJB Sports enjoyed moderately successful festive periods. We've also heard about a record year for Domino's Pizza, and that JoJo Maman Bebe are joining Next on the expansion trail.

However, the rose-tinted spectacles go straight in the bin when you read that the government's austerity measures are 'threatening secondary shopping centres and poor regional high streets' (Henderson); or that 'retail in particular is due to suffer' (Deloitte). Ongoing problems for Barratts, Blacks, HMV and Thorntons are now shared by Hawkin's Bazaar and La Senza, and with opinion divided on how effective the implementation of the Portas Review will be, the retail market may need to steel itself for a chaotic and potentially disastrous twelve months.

One of the main reasons for this is the fact that the heavyweight issues behind the slump in the market do not look like being resolved any time soon. Consumer confidence remains low, and the propensity to spend will reduce even further as real wages continue to be concertinaed by cost of living increases. This coupled with the dent to market confidence caused by such high profile stores in danger of extinction indicates that 2012 may be a real struggle for the industry. 

With the March rent day now a giant cloud on many retailers' horizons, it's difficult to predict which will display the fortitude to carry on, and which will go the way of so many once-treasured brands. Sadly, by next Christmas, we might well have lost some of the brands at the foot of this Company Watch league table to the now more-brutal-than-ever retail market.
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My attention was drawn earlier this week to an application by Stainsby Grange to construct a 
new retail scheme in Keighley. The development will be called 'Worth Valley Shopping Centre', and already has its own website, detailing which brands the company are hoping to entice to the scheme. The developers have indicated that this development is designed to complete Keighley's 'natural retail loop', illoustrated on the right.

This loop already contains two major retail schemes: The Cavendish Retail Park and The Airedale Centre, both mentioned in the retail statement accompanying the application as being infeasible sites for redevelopment as they contain a tenant mix committed to medium and long-term leases. A new mall, therefore, was seen as the key to moving Keighley's retail status forward, and rubber-stamping the town as the primary retail destination in the Airedale corridor, and after a six-year land acquisition process, Stainsby Grange have now gone 

Tying in nicely with my previous blog, the developers have, admirably, taken pains to explicitly write in the Design and Access statement that social media has been embraced, with the creation of www.facebook.com/worthvalleyshoppingcentre. The site currently has 22 'likes' and 1 'talking about' - which isn't actually too bad for a shopping centre by comparison, but maybe a bit more promotion in the right areas is needed for the site to take off.

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If, as indicated, construction is due to begin in early 2013 it would be a welcome fillip for the retail development pipeline, which is looking rather shaky after the nearby Trinity Leeds completes. Additionally, £300 million worth of local investment combined with the creation of 500 jobs is nothing to sneeze at - particularly in an area that has been measurably blighted by the economic downturn.

The real test, of course, comes after opening; when we will be able to gauge if indeed Worth Valley has contributed to or detracted from the retail market in Keighley. Careful measures need to be taken to ensure that there is no temptation to draw trade away from Airedale or Cavendish, even if a further downturn in the retail market necessitates a shift in target occupiers.

Social Media: A Missed Opportunity?

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Some intriguing research was published this week by BCSC, which investigated shopping centres' relationship with social media, and how retail schemes could better utilise such platforms to their future advantage.

By analysing primary data collected from shopping centre managers and social media users, BCSC were able to determine how effectively the two were interacting.

Some statistics published in the research were illuminating. When asked why they didn't follow a shopping centre on social media, a combined figure of 31% of the respondents said that they were either unaware of the scheme's on-line presence or had never considered it as a means of interaction. In addition, only 12% of shopping centre managers said that a dedicated social media executive was tasked with managing their on-line output, and less than half of the centres (42%) carry any written guidelines on social media usage.

These are just a few of the statistics that point to a missed opportunity for schemes to engage with customers on an increasingly popular platform. There seems to be a very clear and obvious dichotomy between what the public would want from a shopping centre via social media, and what those centres are currently providing. The malls seem to currently churn out repetitive marketing material, precipitating a swift click of the 'unfollow' button. People would, in fact, prefer malls to inform them of new store openings, upcoming events and news about improvements to the centre.

An issue that is brought up in defence of social media negligence is one of metrics. Malls find it difficult to quantify the benefit given to them by an increased on-line presence, and whether indeed it would be worth spending money improving their output on such sites in order to generate increases in revenue that may have arrived regardless. My view is that with some 175 million people people now using Twitter, and 400 million logging onto Facebook daily, is ignoring the potential of social media a risk that retailers and retail developments can afford to take?

The fact is, more and more people are harnessing the 'wisdom of crowds' provided by these sites to inform their choices when it comes to retail - and negative on-line publicity spreads like wildfire. Without active management of social media output, centres could find their reputations tarnished in the blink of an eye via a chatroom, hashtag, or an orchestrated on-line campaign

Read the full report on-line here.

Out with the football, in with the retail.

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New Basingstoke Stadium.JPGAn interesting development in Basingstoke today; the local football club has decided to switch from the old Camrose stadium to a new 5,000-capacity ground adjacent to the Hilton Hotel in order to meet the requisite standards to play in a higher league.

The old ground will be sold off in order to fund the new £10 million arena, and turned into a new retail park, the size of which seems to have baffled our beloved BBC. They list the intended size of the new scheme as being 90,000 sq ft (27,432 sq m) - which is an astonishing mismatch of metric and imperial measurements to the tune of being wrong by 19,072 sq m!

I once met a Basingstoke resident who told me that the Camrose Stadium was, in fact, spelt entirely with capital letters in all local publications; and as such needed to be shouted at every mention. I look forward, therefore, to the planning, building and letting of the CAMROSE 
SHOPPING PARK, where all customers and staff will be forced to bellow at each other over every transaction, or face ejection from the premises.

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This is another example of the growing link between stadia and shopping arenas. In Milton Keynes, MK1 Shopping Park will be situated directly adjacent to the MK Dons stadium upon completion next autumn. Similarly, Southend United's new stadium (left) will feature 23,000 sq m (247,600 sq ft) of retail space to accompany flats, a hotel and a conference centre.


Debenhams Announces New In-store Service for the Blind.

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Debenhams announced today that it will be the first and currently only big-name retailer to provide an in-store bespoke service for blind customers, having worked in tandem with the Royal National Institute of Blind People (RNIB) to identify and address the main issues faced by blind and partially sighted customers in store.

Specially trained personal shoppers will assist the visually impaired customers after having gone through extensive preparation programmes. Among other things, the advisers have trained whilst wearing modified glasses which simulate various degrees of sight loss, enabling the clerks to assist patrons with all manner of sight problems.

In addition to the empathetic training, the personal shoppers have also been taught how to best describe products to those unable to see; and how to communicate sensitively and effectively with the customer.

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The service was borne out of research conducted by the RNIB which indicated that 76% of blind and partially sighted people find shopping difficult or impossible - a signal that the provision of a service such as this in a high-profile outlet is well overdue. 

It is of little shock that Debenhams has been the first to step forward and take action to improve the retail experience for all customers. The brand has shown its willingness to move out of the proverbial stone age by including wheelchair-bound models in national window campaigns, and has instigated a company-wide ban on airbrushing in photography.

I have to say kudos to Debenhams. We can't expect in-store staff to be all things to all patrons, but a gesture such as this to try                           and improve even a small portion of your customers' experience ought to be commended. 

Move over, Google, there's a new pop-up in town...

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Yet another big name e-tailer has announced that it will be slinging itself into the murky waters of high-street retail as the countdown to Christmas brings even more ferocity to the battle for market share.
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On-line auction site eBay will be trialling a new pop-up store in Soho's Dean Street this December, and becomes the latest in a string of on-line retailers to announce a high-street presence. The store will open on December 1st, and close four days later as the internet giant tries to maximise profit from the busiest week of the year for web-based purchases.

I must say the eBay store sounds a great deal more civilised than I first imagined it. I envisaged a giant digital clock on the back wall, ticking down to the countdown theme as frenzied shoppers proffered increasingly ludicrous bids for a towel or crisp emblazoned with the image of Jesus. However, eBay doyens have rendered this pure fantasy by instead featuring barcoded images of more sensible products which, when scanned, direct a smart phone browser to eBay's pay-wall.

This means that by the end of this calendar year, we will have seen Ocado, Amazon, Google, Simply Be and now eBay debut their physical retail presence in high-profile destinations, whilst other big name brands have fully immersed themselves in the world of multi-channel retail. Surely a message to the market that the collision between on-line and high street shopping has now become a fusion; and news that even Tesco is leaning towards space-saving is as big an indicator as any.

'Pound Shop' Taken to the Next Level.

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The Financial Times reported today that some retailers have been offered absurdly cheap annual rents in order for landlords to avoid paying business rents on "un-lettable" high street units, with Dixons, Clinton Cards and charity shops among the beneficiaries. 

Concessions have to occur between lessor and lessee in a difficult retail market - but some landlords have decided to take things to the extreme by charging a nominal annual rent of £1 on these spaces. This means that for less than the price of milkbread, and butter, you can now plonk yourself in a vacant unit, and trade for twelve months. Just as long as you're somewhere dreary. And cold.

A little shocking, maybe; but surprising? Hardly. Landlords are spitting feathers over having to pay business rates on vacant high street units, which now make up over 14% of town centres in Britain. I suspect many would prefer to chew off their own arm than risk increasing this figure by sustaining rents at rates only befitting a strong retail market. What we're experiencing is anything but.

One man likely to be particularly aghast at this is Russian billionaire, Maxim Voznesensky, who has recently agreed a deal to take 249 sq ft on Old Bond Street for 18 years at £225,000 per annum - the equivalent of £903.61 per square foot every year. Some basic maths would indicate that this pitch is 225,000 times more desirable than those given away by landlords - yet I'm sure Mr Voznesensky is sitting with his FT and morning coffee, wondering if maybe he should have held out for a cheaper space in one of these cold, dreary locales.

Maybe things would be better if landlords in the housing market were forced into a similar position. The problem of decreasing disposable incomes would be solved, the retail market would be gloriously resurrected, the high street buoyant and town centres thriving - while malevolent, tyrannical house barons sob in a ditch.

I'm not holding my breath...

Christmas Time, Mistletoe and....i-Helicopters.

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So, back go the clocks - and like a Brussels sprout on Christmas day, festive adverts are now to be forced down our throats until December 26th. Joy unconfined for some, unnecessary shared bonhomie for others.

Falling into the latter "Scroogian" category, I have already stolen some coal and wrapped it in newspaper for my next of kin; but retailers competing in an increasingly brutal market have already begun clamouring for the attention of those less stringent, or 'despicable', if you like.

This November will see possibly the earliest ever beginning to the festive sales, as Hallowe'en decorations are quickly stashed away in favour of fake snow, reindeer and Christmas trees as the chosen adornment of shop windows. With the high street in desperate need of a seasonal boost - it's little wonder that brands are trying to get bargain shoppers in early this year.

The high street's major retailers will be competing fiercely with supermarkets - the latter enjoyed a 6.9% year-on-year growth in sales last Christmas; and it would be a brave man to bet against a similar outcome in 2011. Price sensitivity is the order of the day, and the larger stores can undercut the high street on this year's key toys and gadgets.

We may also see an increase in the propensity to shop on-line for gifts. John Lewis last year enjoyed a bumper period - with year-on-year on-line sales increasing by an incredible 42%. Horrific weather conditions last year were possibly the main reason for this, but I would also attribute the increase in internet shopping to simply not wishing to deal with queues or a last-minute dearth of in-store merchandise.

There is quite a conservative view on what this year's top sellers will be. The average RRP of a top ten children's gift is £47.20; for her, £19.89, and for him, £26.47 - a little under what I would have expected - although the average is heavily decreased in this case by the omission of an iPad 2, or a Kindle.

I would personally be ecstatic with a remote control helicopter - see here, although the coal will have to be eschewed in favour of more appropriate offerings. Where can you find good myrrh these days?







 

NSLSP Summary: Out-of-town on the rise...

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CBRE have recently published their National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns (NSLSP) report, which indicates that although town centres still retain the majority of the population for comparison goods shopping, out-of-town destinations are slowly eating a larger chunk of the pie.

Analysing the period from 1998-2009, in which the population of the U.K. grew by 3.3 million, CBRE have identified which comparison goods trading locations have improved, and which have struggled out of over 3,000 destinations. 

Town centres have had their comparative market share reduced by around 4% in that time, despite the 1.64% increase in shopping population size. Out-of-town destinations, by contrast, now have an additional 9.6% of the population choosing them for comparison goods shopping - representing an increase in market share of an astounding 61%.

The survey cites three main causes of this paradigm shift, namely: retail mix change as a result of development activity; accessibility change brought about by transport innovations, and underlying population change. 

There is also an indication of a market squeeze, in which the top destinations will thrive, while others succumb to unfavourable market conditions. Of the new space developed in this period, 65% was in the top 200 locations, whereas 40% of other trading zones saw a loss of 4 million shoppers - the equivalent of £13 billion worth of trade disappearing.

Going forward, CBRE are adamant that fuel costs will have a more profound impact on retail than the internet. Shoppers currently tend to make fewer trips to larger centres but as fuel prices rise, we might see more and more affluent households deciding to stay at home to shop - following the lead of poorer households, who make up the majority of multi-channel consumers.

For an in-depth regional look at the winners and losers, see here.

Déjà vu at the Burlington Arcade

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The brewing row between the owners and tenants of the Burlington Arcade on Piccadilly, W1, has a distinct sense of déjà vu about it.

 

More than 34,000 people backed a petition in January 2010 calling for action after 150 traders were ejected from Portobello Market, W11, in favour of an All Saints store.

 

They argued that the changes to Lipka's Arcade, undertaken by landlord Warren Todd, threatened the character of one of the capital's top tourist attractions and accused him of jeopardising the market in pursuit of high rents.

 

Fast forward more than a year and a half, and the same argument is now being thrashed out under the arches of the Grade II-listed arcade in Piccadilly.

 

Meyer Bergman and Thor Equities, the owners of the Burlington Arcade, are threatening to replace boutique retailers, some of whom have traded there for more than 50 years, with glitzy brands such as Jimmy Choo. They have also hired New York-based retail guru Peter Marino, famed for his black leather cap and sunglasses combo, to head up a reported £2.5m makeover of the arcade.

 

Daniel Bexfield, who has run a silver shop in the Burlington Arcade for 13 years, has branded the joint venture's plans for the arcade as "Dubai style" and Susanna Lovis, a specialist in Victorian and Edwardian jewellery, warns that it risks being turned into another Westfield mall.

 

As the mood at the arcade becomes increasingly sour and Bexfield's protest gathers momentum - film director Michael Winner recently waded in - it's hard to see an easy and peaceful solution to this familiar dispute.

 

The opening of House of Fraser's new click-and-collect store in Aberdeen today could be significant for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it is a major department store and leading high street retailer sacrificing 98,500 sq ft from their average unit size to engage fully with multi-channel retail. Secondly, and most importantly, it represents what could very well be the future of how customers and retailers interact.

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The emphasis is heavily on creating a relaxed atmosphere in a fashion boutique/internet cafe hybrid in which patrons can have a leisurely browse House of Fraser's extensive range of products on computers, interactive screens and iPads; all whilst enjoying free coffee and sitting in chairs comfortable enough to snooze in.

The logic behind this concept is that customers now wish to shop in-store as they would at home. Combining a homely, relaxing atmosphere with the highest calibre technology to produce a unique shopping experience is what House of Fraser hope will catapult them ahead of their rivals as the battle for profit margins intensifies in a now rather brutal retail market. Fashion retailer Oasis also seems to buy into this thinking after having opened its very own new concept store just off Oxford Street this week. Oasis also cite customer experience as being the reason for the move - abolishing queues for tills by introducing customised mobile iPads to process transactions throughout the store. The message seems to be clear: embrace technology or fall behind.

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We have also recently seen Ocado trial a shopping wall at One New Change, and as technology develops into as important a part of retail as bricks and mortar, what price a Shanghai-style subway shopping wall adorning Holborn tube station in the near future? It is certainly pleasing to see such a propensity from retailers to engage with technology, rather than fear it. Amazon have also entered the multi-channel ballpit, installing lockers at the St. Paul's mall, among other places, wherein customers can collect their purchases.

For House of Fraser, this will undoubtedly be one of their most scrutinised stores in terms of performance - not just by HoF bosses, but by retailers nationwide. Following their lead, we may well see other department stores, retailers and possibly even supermarkets rolling out identikit store designs as click-and-collect becomes the definitive way in which consumers re-align their loyalties to brands post-recession. Looking even further ahead, this may well reflect how town centres and shopping malls are designed, as the impact of the reduction in necessary floorspace is felt by landlords and developers alike.







Oddbins: Back on the High Street

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By popular demand (and following a re-negotiation of terms with creditors), back comes Oddbins to the high street this week - re-opening its premises in "key locations", which essentially means London, Scotland and various other urban centres in which it would be foolish not to retain a presence. A remarkable turnaround, given the multitude of problems experienced by the retailer only six or seven months ago.

Re-opened, re-branded and re-invigorated; the wine merchant will now exclusively supply a selection of wines currently unavailable in supermarkets - rubber-stamping the intention from new buyer EFB Group to turn focus away from competing on price with those larger stores, and instead provide better quality wines at the optimum price point. The niche-finding (or re-finding) strategy has been identified by EFB as the only viable way in which Oddbins can hope to survive.

The roll-out will be accompanied by a fresh internal design, and an in-store 'price-guessing' challenge, during which customers will have a chance to taste three wines, and then estimate the price at which Oddbins should sell. The intention behind this initiative is to engage in discussion with patrons, and the results of the challenge will be taken into account when it comes to pricing the bottles.

Far be it from me to cast aspersions on the integrity of Oddbins' customers during the challenge, which will take place from the 20th - 23rd of October, but if indeed the results are to be taken seriously - one would imagine that any savvy participant wouldn't stray too far from the national average price - a rather surprising £4.84. 

Oddbins claims that it has a strong, loyal customer base, who will be tremendously pleased to see the chain back on their high streets. I suppose we will have to wait and see just how strong that relationship really is, as Oddbins may soon discover that brand loyalty was one of the first casualties of the recession - and that the squeeze on real incomes and rock-bottom consumer confidence has largely divested the public of their price insensitivity.

RPI rise threatens fragile retail

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The retail property sector is set for another bruising as the Office for National Statistics' confirmed this morning that the retail prices index rose to 5.6% in September - the highest annual inflation rate for over 20 years.

 

The BRC estimates that the new RPI figure threatens to land the retail sector with a £350m business rates increase next April since the uniform business rate is set taking into account the RPI inflation rate at September 2011.

 

This of course comes at a time when retailers are already grappling with an increase in VAT, low bank lending levels and fragile consumer confidence.

 

BCSC has been quick to pounce, warning that high levels of business rates will impact retailers' expansion plans. It will in turn also affect the viability of retail development, which is dependent on securing retailers and acceptable levels of rental income.

 

BCSC, in its letter to local government minister Bob Neill today, writes: "As occupiers' business rates liability continues to increase, a greater share of occupancy costs will be absorbed by rates, eroding potential rental values and therefore the viability of proposed developments."

 

It is evidently time for the government to start paying closer attention to its independent review of the UK high street, led by sharp-tongued retail guru Mary Portas, which is identifying the level of business rates as a thorn in the retail property sector's side.

Sainsbury's foray into online entertainment

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Interesting news this morning that Sainsbury's has acquired online entertainment company Global Media Vault for £1m. It is a very clear sign of the supermarket's ambitions to embrace the booming online market. And rightly so if the statistics are anything to go by. The UK entertainment market is currently worth £7.3bn and the online market is expected to double in value by 2015.

 

Sainsbury's acquisition follows the launch of Sainsbury's Entertainment website last November. GMV's digital database already includes over three million music, film and game assets for the UK market, all of which can be browsed, purchased and distributed via web, mobile, TV and kiosk applications.

Fragile high street snapshot

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A raft of retailers provided a snapshot of the current fragile retail economy in their trading updates last week and it wasn't especially comforting.

Supermarket giant Tesco revealed a 0.5% fall in first-half like-for-like sales - excluding VAT and petrol - in the UK. Its rival Sainsbury's posted a 1.9% rise in like-for-like sales, which excluded petrol but not VAT, for the first six months of the financial year.

Elsewhere on the high street, Thorntons' like-for-like sales dropped 7.8% in the 14 weeks to 1 October and homewares retailer Dunelm saw its like-for-like sales growth fall 2% over almost the same period. Mothercare too reported a like-for-like slump of 9.6% over 12 weeks with a notable drop in the past four weeks.

However, despite the gloomy sales figures, the retail sector has not been hit by any significant administrations following the September rent quarter day. With some respite on the insolvency front, preparations are now firmly under way for what is hoped to be a boost in sales activity for retailers in the run up to Christmas.

It is also worth flagging up the recent Indian summer experienced in the UK recently, which had mixed results on footfall. According to Springboard's National High Street Index, which monitors over 85 UK towns and cities, footfall on the first Saturday of October, when the heatwave hit, dropped 7.1% year-on-year. Conversely, footfall surged on Sunday by 11.7%.

Diane Wehrle, research director at Springboard, said: "The last week of September, which included the week of unusually hot weather, represented the only week in the month in which footfall increased from last year (+2.4%) - in all other weeks during September footfall fell from last year.  The result for the last week of the month is much more positive than the result for the same week in 2010, when footfall fell by -4.5%."

 

Brewery Square: On Film

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Brewery Square are clearly delighted with Wagamamas having signed for space at their scheme - the official website features an enormous splash confirming the deal, reported this week on EGi.

The website also features this wonderful construction timelapse film, which I thoroughly enjoyed, although you'll want to put your headphones in before taking a look...

Google's High Street Debut

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I was going to begin this entry with a rather vitriolic: "You know those annoying Google pop-ups you always get - well now they're in physical store form!!" - but I thought that might be a tad mean-spirited; and anyway - I quite like some of those pop-ups. I once saw one advertising a package "Home-Gym and Sports Car" deal for only £12.50. Nice.

Alas, you won't find any gymnasium equipment or Lotus cars at Google's first outlet, which opened last weekend in the PC World store on Tottenham Court Road. What you will find however, is Google's Chromebook Laptop; the item which underpins the thinking behind the move into the high street.

80% of laptop sales occur in stores; and one can understand why by examining the internet's sales technique in evidence here, employing an aggressive dark blue 'BUY NOW' button to strong-arm the fragile public into a purchase. Contrast that with an in-store experience wherein customers can familiarise themselves with what is still regarded as a luxury product, and receive well-informed advice before taking the plunge.

The store design features the colours present in Google's chrome logo:

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My initial impression of the layout is that, true to form, they have gone for a slick, modern concept with the curved tables and backless square seats. Drawing too many comparisons with Apple's stores is rather unfair after a first try - they have ten years on Google in terms of designing and operating physical stores; but it's clear that there is a slight element of attempted emulation here - and in my view, it doesn't quite land. 

I don't know why - but when I first saw the design, I was reminded of the children's areas in places like DFS where I used to sit playing with Lego while my parents thrashed out a payment plan on their three-piece suite. Ironically, nowadays the children probably have Chromebooks to entertain them in such places - maybe that was the inspiration behind it? 

Aesthetics aside, the idea is a smart (albeit belated) move from Google given the statistics - and with another similar store set to open in Lakeside this Friday, I wouldn't be surprised to see a great many more of these "Chromezones" popping up in the very near future. 

Rent quarter day

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The September rent quarter day passed yesterday and, despite ongoing pressures on the high street, the general consensus amongst retail landlords is that it won't be marked by a raft of major retailer collapses.

 

Colliers International was upbeat today saying that it collected 94% of high street retail rents on the due date compared with 85% 12 months earlier.

 

Colliers' head of investment property management Mark Jarrett said: "Despite the pressures on the high street, we have found that nearly all rental payments have been processed on or before quarter day and retailers are proving to be surprisingly resilient."

 

There have been a couple of casualties in the last few days however. Liquidators were appointed to variety store retailer Hub, which was launched in 2010 by Poundland co-founder Dave Dodd, and administrators at BDO were appointed to electronics retailer Sonex Communications, the company behind 16 Sony Centre stores.

The September quarter day rent cheque is a tough one for retailers to write out as they are also buying stock for Christmas. However, banks are likely to be more lenient towards struggling retailer clients this quarter to allow them to make the most of the traditionally busy trading period.

 

One major retail landlord said this week: "I think this rent quarter day will be fine. Normally you hear noise - requests to pay rent monthly or delay payment - but I've heard nothing. The issue will be what happens in January."

 

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