As ever, the horses have been the focus this week but there has been a new game to play in town - the baiting of the English rugby fan which has provided more craic to the Irish visitors of Cheltenham than much of the horse racing to be honest. The wind-ups have been absolutely tremendous.
Back to rugby and a quick recap of last weekend.
]]> Ireland, once again, played like a smart team and my hunch that Wales might just do us never looked like it was going to happen. In truth the Welsh were awful and displayed an alarmingly bad attitude to the whole event.I suspect the Irish press can take a lot of the credit for that since their description of Warren Gatland as a "menopausal warthog" certainly seemed to rattle him and he was like a cat on a hot tin roof all week.
I think it must have got through to the team who temporarily seemed to have lost their way. Too many crises of confidence and too many areas of the park are causing problems for them. They will be glad to get to the end of the tournament and write this one off.
Well weren't we the lucky ones to see the festival of rugby at Murrayfield! There's probably been enough said about this already but it was 80 minutes of total junk exacerbated by the worst refereeing performance I have ever seen.
It is simply unacceptable to take up to three minutes to set a scrum and I think everybody should get their money back. On the pitch, England still totally lacked confidence and Scotland have limited options and never looked like they were going to break the game line. In truth, both teams could have played for three hours and not scored a try.
In Paris on Sunday, France put on one of the best exhibitions I have seen from a Northern Hemisphere team for many years - they were simply imperious. Then, of course, in typical Gallic fashion, they pulled out a packet of Gauloise and took their foot off the gas for the last 20 minutes allowing Italy back into the game and it was of course to their credit that they didn't give up when they were effectively 6-0 down.
I do however believe that France are now the real deal and there will be some concerns from our Southern Hemisphere contemporaries as 2011 World Cup draws ever closer.
So onto this weekend. In Cardiff on Saturday it is all about after The Lord Mayor's show but I think Wales will have regrouped sufficiently to take care of the brawn that the Azzurri will throw at them in the first half. I fancy Wales to win by 10, with a possible reminder that they might show us what a good team they could be and what a missed opportunity 2010 has been for them.
In Dublin at teatime I think Ireland will have too much guile and cunning for Scotland and we ought to secure the Triple Crown. It is very unusual in my position as an Irish rugby fan to be glibly talking about Grand Slams one year and Triple Crowns the next and it does show you what progress Declan Kidney has made with his team.
He is a first class coach and the rugby authorities in Ireland ought to take great credit for how they have set up the structure of the game to help the national side. I suspect that Jonathan Sexton will be allowed to play a more expansive role on Saturday and I would look out for a big performance from him.
Finally then, onto Paris on Saturday night under the lights. As any of you know who read these blogs before, I have always had a sneaky feeling that England could do quite well in Paris but I am afraid to say I think MJ has just pressed the change button at precisely the wrong moment.
France have stepped up a gear and I cannot see anything other than a comprehensive French victory as I write this piece. I was hopeful that England might play a very defensive game, shove the ball up their jumper and frustrate the French but it doesn't look like that is how they will play so I think a French Grand Slam would be a very deserving finish to this year's championship.
I hope you've all enjoyed the blogs - they've been good fun to write and that we can all look forward to next year's countdown to the World Cup in New Zealand.
All best.
Last Saturday's games first:
Ireland v Wales - The Irish played very well and are getting better as the tournament goes on. As you would expect from a good side they took advantage of the sin binning of Lee Byrne to take a lot of points. It's been a feature of the tournament that games have been turned around by points taken when players have been sin binned. Perhaps a lesson for coaches that persistent foul play does not work! Wales showed signs of making another late comeback in the game but it all came too late and the Irish were really too strong for them in what was a very entertaining match.
France-Italy - France scored early and then it was just one of those days where it all went right for them and when that happens they are hard to stop. The Italians though refused to give up and scored two good tries in the second half although perhaps by this time the French had switched off a little.
Looking forward to the matches this weekend:
Wales - Italy - Gatland has wielded the axe but the people he has brought in - Ryan Jones, Mike Phillips and Gethin Jones - are all players that he would no doubt want in his first team. It's the first time Wales's Lions front row has been able to play together. Martyn Williams who had a poor match has been dropped. Older players tend not to get second chances and Gatland obviously feels he needs to have a replacement No7 who is experienced enough to do a job for him at next year's World Cup. Undoubtedly the most exciting new call-up is the fastest man in the squad Tom Prydie, the young wing who is by all accounts faster than Shane Williams. I'm looking forward to watching him. It's a good opportunity to blood him against Italy as long as he gets some ball in hand. Wales will have felt the criticism that came their way after the last match and will want to finish the tournament with a good performance.The Italians never give in but I think Wales will have the little bit extra they need as long as they can play for the whole 80 minutes.
Ireland - Scotland - The Irish will be favourites at home playing their last game at Croke Park. They have a very competitive pack that is strong at the set piece and great creativity in the backline. Where Scotland has been good this championship is at the tackle area and off loading out of the tackle and the backrow of Kelly Brown, Johnnie Beattie and particularly John Barclay have been in fine form. They need to win the battle in this area but with Wallace Ferris and Heaslip it will be a 'battle royal'. Dan Parks has played intelligently at stand off and controlled the Scottish game which has been positive but Scotland need to score more points relative to pressure exerted. As a whole Andy Robinson has I believe improved the Scottish performance over the course of the season even though they have been unlucky so far in terms of results and arguably don't deserve to win the wooden spoon. Three young Irishmen Thomas O'Leary, Keith Earls and Jonathan Sexton are firmly establishing themselves in what is a very experienced Irish team. I think although it will be competitive the Irish who are coming to form after a poor display in Paris will just have more attacking options and thus will prove too strong at home.
France versus England - England have made a lot of changes. In particular the management has decided that the existing back line has gone cold and the bench are rightly getting a chance. Ben Foden needs a chance to show the form he has been in for Northampton and it will be interesting to see his team mate there take over from Monye. Both Armitage and Monye have possibly suffered from the difficulties of translating a good first season in the Six Nations into good performances in the second season. Often players are worked out by oppositions and have to adjust their game to be successful. In terms of Tindall coming in for Tait to provide a more physical presence against Bastereaud, having played with Mike at Bath I know he relishes the contact so he will be looking forward to the game. He is a very strong player like Bastereaud but he also brings a lot of experience and while Bastereaud has impressed he has occasionally shown inexperience which Tindall will be looking to exploit. The most dramatic change is at fly-half though. The jury is still out on Flood and whether he can control a game in the way Jonny Wilkinson can. But if Flood can get it right than he will have a good chance to cement a first-team place for the World Cup. The main thing is that he does play a lot flatter than Wilkinson and this should at least enable the outside backs to get into the game a little more. England have a stronger looking pack and they really must compete with France upfront if they are to stand a chance. France are the form side and England have never looked like title contenders but France have had a psychological issue with playing England in big games in recent times. Form would say France by a margin but sometimes England can get into the psyche of the French. I'm expecting France to win and win well to become Grand Slam winners.
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The results from two weeks ago were entirely consistent with recent form. England and Scotland played out what was without doubt the most boring game of rugby the Championship has seen for many years, France confirmed themselves as worthy winners of this year's tournament, and Ireland retained their Celtic supremacy by comfortably beating Wales....again.
Looking ahead to this weekend, Saturday's fixture for Wales looks set to be a disappointing end to their 6 Nations campaign. It's not that I expect an Italian victory (although i wouldn't rule it out), it's the fact that a season that offered much promise will see us fighting to hang on to fourth place in the table. I really do wonder what the table would look like if Wales had indeed turned up for the first half at Twickenham those many weeks ago.
]]> After the disappointment of Croke Park, Wales will make four changes and welcome back Ryan Jones, Gethin Jenkins and Mike Philips, hoping that they can end the campaign with a much needed victory. I sincerely hope that Wales can eradicate their errors, convert possession into points and put on an impressive display in front of the home crowd. It may be too much to ask as we all know what the Italians did to the Scots and they will be up for a very physical encounter at the Millennium Stadium. I personally don't think that it is the forgone conclusion that the bookies think it will be - Italy are 8-1 for a victory!Looking at the other games France v England is without doubt the pick of the bunch and the French are clear favourites to complete a clean sweep with a comprehensive victory over England. Ireland are also expected to sweep aside a very weak Scottish side( Scotland are 6-1 for a win), which will see them end up winning the Triple Crown and taking the runners-up slot.
]]>Wales actually played quite well in the first half for a change, but once again they were undone by the opposition scoring two tries while one of their players was in the sin bin. If the players do not learn from this 6 Nations they never will. In the professional era, good national teams can decide the result in just 10 minutes and all the sinbinings that I have seen this year have been fully justified. The referees handling/interpretation of scrums and the tackle area has come in for much justified criticism, but on yellow cards they have been spot on.
Ireland have to be congratulated once again - they scored the points when it mattered and each game a different player comes to the fore - a sign of a well organised and confident team. Wales didn't look as if they were going to win at any stage.
It was a beautiful warm weekend in the south east and I (along with many others!) was very pleased not to be at Murrayfield. I think the word "dire" sums up the game. The lawmakers/referees need to sort out the scrum and the breakdown. Neither team deserved to win, but it was Scotland with the lions share of possession, and having twice hit the uprights, they can count themselves unlucky not to have won the game. The defences were strong, but neither side really looked as if they would score a try, although Cussiter was superbly tackled by the prop Dan Cole when the line was beckoning.
Ireland will now entertain Scotland at Croke Park. Scotland will try to replicate the passion of the England match, but there are two many experienced Irishmen to produce any other result but a home win. The Irish back row is immense, their front five battle hardened, and their backs take most of the half chances offered them.
Wales at home to Italy will not produce many fireworks as there is nothing at stake, although there will be much effort to stave off the Wooden Spoon in the unlikely event of Scotland beating Ireland. The attritional play of Italy up front over the whole tournament will have tired them, which should leave enough space for Shane and his merry men to put in some telling scores. A home win.
And so to Le Crunch - at least at the start of the tournament I thought it was going to be! Having seen England play so lamentably against Scotland and Italy, their only hope is to try to stifle the French. France have proved to be the form team, with an excellent ball winning pack, a very strong back row, and backs which run straight enabling room to be created. In addition, their support play has been exemplary. England do not have the firepower to stop this avalanche, even with the much needed return of Simon Shaw. It is good that Johnson has finally selected Foden and Flood, as Armitage and Wilkinson are not playing well. Flutey needs to keep much closer to his flyhalf. The return of Mike Tindall, to nullify the power of Bastareaud, will not make much difference as, like Armitage before, he has not had sufficient game time since his return from injury. It takes time to start performing well at the highest level. The French will show us how it is done - a home win by a good margin.
And a few words from the virtual French coach Monsieur Dupont. " Ah, I 'ave fooled you, my surpreese in the Italian game was not Yashvili, it was Marc Andreu - and he is only 5ft 5½"! Eh bien, eet eez Le Crunch, and thees time there will be no Waterloo. We are too good. Le Grand Chelem will be ours, and what better way to secure it than by beating Les Rosbifs. Marc Lievremont, who you all rubbished, 'as got it right with the way we play, and our discipline 'as been parfait. World Cup next year? Allez La France!"
]]>All agents know how to play spoof and being good spoof players, they know that gloating is forbidden. So, no post-Twickenham gloating from your Irish correspondent, only real satisfaction from a professional job well executed and a memorable day out for Family Erwin with my folks returning to Ballymena as happy old Hectors.
Truth was we took our chances like a smart team - it is very unusual nowadays to win a game when you don't have the ball. With hindsight, Sexton was good, O'Gara too when he came on, our back row is genuinely world class and our two wings, Earls and Bowe, look like sharp tacks compared to their English counterparts' rather blunt knives. Told you there would be no gloating...
Anyway, having nearly bagged my three away wins on the last round of games (what were you doing to me Scotland) here is what I think will happen this time round:
I have a horrible feeling that my mate Jonesy might be the happier of us come teatime on Saturday and there is a flashing red light in my subconscious about this one. I think it will be a cracker with both teams effectively seeking to bypass their front 5s and giving the ball a real spin. Good weather should ensure points and I can see this one being a bit like a Ali - Frazier slug with both sides coming back for more. Wales have nothing to lose and I have just got a feeling that we aren't 4/11 shots to win the Triple Crown. So against what I want to see happen, I take Wales by a score.
Before I look to Murrayfield, I think Paris on Sunday is a given. You really have to believe in something to make it happen and I can't see Italy going to the Stade de France in a positive mindset so it is just a question of how many. The motivation for France will be that a decent win secures them the title by dint of points differential irrespective of the England result and I think they will win by more than 20.
Up at Auld Reekie, I think it could be a reasonably turgid affair with two out of form teams having their own private arm wrestling match - interesting to both players but not a great spectacle to the rest of the world. As it happens, I picked up some old Calcutta Cup highlights on ESPN last night (very bad channel for marriages by the way) showing England's win in 2003 and was fascinated to see that firstly some of the players are still in the current team but it served more as a reminder of how good that pre-World Cup team were and especially how positively they played the game - just what they need to do now. I do see England coming through by 10 and the message can then be sent from Twickenham to the Scottish coach confirming "come home agent Robinson, your work is done".
An England win would then set up Le Crunch and that will be something to look forward to.
I didn't get the predictions quite right a fortnight ago. But how could I have foreseen the events of the day - England's pack gained 70% of the possession, yet the team did very little with it. Ireland, putting in tackle after tackle, had three scoring opportunities, and took all three! To win a game such as that on so little possession means that Ireland were far more streetwise, and often took the right options. Well done Ireland, you deserved to win! As for England, there are many things that are good, but when you fail to get over the gain line with so much possession, it either means that the players aren't good enough - which I don't believe - or the attacking flair has been trained out of them. Too many set moves, not enough allowance for flair. They need a word with Tommy Bowe or Shane Williams, or preferably both!
]]> England's trip to Murrayfield is building up into another classic. They haven't won on their last two outings there, it is the 20th anniversary of the David Sole March, and Andy Robinson has a big grudge. If England cannot match the passion which Scotland will throw at them, a defeat is looming. But if England can even match the passion of the Italians, then their superior gunpowder will see them through. Accuracy of the kicking will be key, both out-of-hand and at goal, and Jonny must also deliver with his passing and tactical distribution.Wales played the first half against France as if they knew they were destined to lose, then woke up. It was the French who were supposed to be intimidated under the Friday night lights at the Millenium Stadium! Too little too late, but at least they saw off Bastareaud who was substituted. Now they go to Dublin and will be the underdogs. If they decide to play in the first half as well as the second, they will push Ireland very close, but I see a home win.
France also need to be careful. With the Grand Slam beckoning, they might ease off a tad against Italy. As Scotland found out, Italy are becoming more and more adept at nullifying opponents with their tremendous pack, and can be difficult to beat. However, the sheer dominating nature of The Stade de France should see the home side through against a team who have few experienced enough to deal with that resounding amphitheatre, never mind the French team.
As the virtual French coach Monsieur Dupont points out: "Two home games to secure Le Grand Chelem. I want ze French population to compris what eez a cricket score, and we can score that with our wonderful backs and ze forwards who get us so much ball. Mais Zut Alors, the injuries are mounting, and with Michalak out, we have our next surprise - Dimitri Yashvili, what a superb sub - but will we play him at scrumhalf or flyhalf?!"
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After last week's results the championship looks Paris bound, although it could have been so different if Wales hadn't been so careless at the Millennium Stadium!
The last set of matches also exposed both England and Scotland's fragility and so this weekend's Calcutta Cup match at Murrayfield has the look of two drunks propping each other up!! England start as favourites but as we know anything can happen and the Scots are very capable of an upset..... or do I mean capable to upset!!
However, we have to adopt a 'glass half full' approach and focus on the positives. To be honest there aren't too many, although Wales do recall Gareth Delve and Matthew Rees returns from injury - both could be important additions to the Welsh team.
On the negative side, Ireland field an unchanged team from the one that beat England at Twickenham, they also hold the high ground after defeating Wales at the Millennium last year, and O'Driscoll is set to play his 100th game, which could give the headline writers their story for the Sunday morning papers.......I can see it already!
My concerns are shared by the bookies who have Ireland as 9/2 on favourites.
As for Sunday's encounter between France and Italy, there is little doubt about the likely victors and it's just a matter of how many points that France put on the scoreboard, to secure their position at the top of the table. France are a staggering 150/1 on to win in Paris!
]]>Looking back at the last round of matches:
Wales versus France - We saw Wales come back again but not quite managing the result they achieved in their previous fixture. This time having gifted France two interception tries Wales gave themselves just too much to do to win the game. France were efficient in the first half and did not have to do much to push ahead. Perhaps that is why in the second half they rested on their laurels a little and found themselves hanging on at the end. Had it gone on any longer Wales could have snatched it.
England versus Ireland - Everyone is castigating England for how they played even though they secured a fair share of possession and territory but in the end they were up against a useful Irish side. With a few minutes to go England seemed to have done enough to win the game with Jonny Wilkinson's drop goal. But the Irish have a lot of experience in winning and closing out games and that was in many ways the difference between the two teams. It's also the difference between this England team and more successful ones in the past. England have good players but they are not all singing from the same hymn sheet. The pressure is on for Martin Johnson!
Of the upcoming fixtures:
Ireland versus Wales - This is always a funny game where the home side advantage counts for little and predictions seem to go out of the window. The Welsh haven't played for 80 minutes yet this tournament and they are certainly dangerous enough to win the match. However, I think the Irish have more hardnosed experience and will benefit from Wales losing Ryan Jones even if the introduction of Matthew Rees and Luke Charteris to the side means the Welsh remain strong. It will be a close encounter but I think Ireland will shade it. It will be the most exciting game to watch this weekend if it is anything like last year!
Scotland versus England - Andy Robinson will know Scotland should be in a far better position at this stage having lost the last two games which they could and should have won. They are now facing down the barrel of the wooden spoon so they will be playing with a backs against the wall mentality. England will still be ruing the defeat against Ireland and the loss of Simon Shaw will be a blow. And I definitely think Scotland are capable of matching the English what they need is a collective belief that they can win. Nevertheless the times when Scotland have ambushed the English in Murrayfield in the recent past have often been when England came up over confident. Scotland can win the game but I think England will be the favourites for what is unlikely to be a pretty encounter.
Italy versus France - This is a game I would expect France to win and win well. What they are trying to achieve under Marc Leivremont is a consistency that is not always there with French sides. We saw France in the late 1990s win the then Five Nations Grand Slam and then go straight to Italy and lose the following week. It will depend on whether France start the game thinking this is going to be a walk in the park. If they are not overly confident France will surely win.
]]>Well what a match Wales v Scotland turned out to be. We were down by 10 points with seven minutes to go and even the most bullish Welsh supporter would not have given us much hope. To our credit however we continued to battle away and probably played the better rugby in the second half and it was definitely one of the best finishes to a rugby international since little Jonny dropkicked to win the World Cup, many years ago.
I'm not sure Wales fully deserved to win over the 80 minutes but Scotland certainly handed us victory with another '17 point' yellow card. Wyn Jones' yellow against England cost Wales 17 points during his absence from the pitch at Twickenham, and it was the same points penalty for the Scots.....although Wales left it very late after squandering two penalties as they decided not to kick for three certain points!
As for the other matches, we must hope Ireland expose England's weaknesses, in a way that Wales failed to do and Italy very nearly succeeded in doing.
It's starting to get really exciting as we move into the business end of the Championship - and let's not forget that after this weekend we could see Wales, France, England and Ireland all on the same points.
After the dramatic actions of the last matches, most of us have just about recovered. Eric is probably still in a state of disbelief.
It is clear, however, that Scotland lost a game they should have won. If Sean Lamont had used the 2-1 overlap properly in passing to Kelly Brown when Scotland were 21-9 up, the game would have been over. To then have two sin binnings shows great indiscipline. The yellow cards are now having a real impact, provided that the team with numerical superiority uses it properly - viz England v Wales, and Wales in this game. Even then, with three minutes to go, Scotland got a penalty on their own line, yet the kick missed touch (which would have been a Scottish throw in), enabling Wales to run it back and secure the crucial penalty to tie the match. And even then, the restart kick went down the middle of the field, giving Wales all options to run it back. Andy Robinson was not amused.
]]> And then we went to Paris where we saw Bastareaud outshine BoD, with ample support from the in form Jauzion. The French defence was very impressive, and I do not see any team being able to break it down very often. However, the key difference was in the forwards, where France were able to secure so much good ball from all phases, including scrum and line out, that they were really in total control, and when one sees Harinordoquy substituted by Bonnaire, who would get in as a first choice in any other 6 nations team, you understand how strong the French back row is.England scrambled a win over Italy. My previous comments said there would be a couple of glitches - I meant to say a score! There is much to be done and much comment about Jonny. He won't miss those kicks against the Irish! However, his passing needs to be much improved. I saw Butch James dominating for Bath v London Irish in the Premiership, and then the game was turned around when Mike Catt came on for London Irish after James had been substituted - the quality passing of both players was the difference. Jonny should have a word with his old mucker, because England don't look as if they are going to breach many defences very often unless the timing of the passing improves.
So this weekend, Wales v France under lights at the Milennium Stadium. Form has a comfortable win for France, which will be eased with the forward injuries and enforced absence in the Welsh team. I originally had Wales to win this one, but I cannot see that happening now, even with the Welsh hwyl in full cry after a few pints of Brains on a Friday night! They won't get enough ball.
Italy will give Scotland a run for their money, but the encouragement which the Scots had against Wales (forgetting the last 10 minutes!) and their nous should see them through in another close game. Italy will be just the same dogged team, difficult to beat.
And then we have England v Ireland at HQ. This is the Triple Crown match decider. Ireland are a good side but their stars are ageing and have lost some zip. They will be affected by the loss of Kearney through injury, and the O'Driscoll/D'Arcy skill levels will reveal whether the Flutey/Tait combination has a real future. There has been a lot of negative comment on England's game v Italy but they have two wins under their belt, they have good players, and the questions will turn to the management if they stifle what is potentially a very exciting back line. England will play with more confidence and as Ireland's weaknesses have now been identified by France, England will win a close game.
And a few words from Monsieur Dupont, the virtual French coach. "Fortunately, zey will 'ave the roof on in Cardiff, so eet will not be wet or trop froid. Az half zee Welsh forwards will be driving golf buggies, we will get lots of ball! Now eet eez Bastareaud v Roberts, so if Mathieu wins that contest, we will allow him to sample zee Brains! Eef we win this match, nothing can stop Le Grand Chelem!"
Looking back at the last round of fixtures, the Wales versus Scotland game was a great match although bitterly disappointing for Scotland. It was a great opportunity for us to win in Cardiff. I think Andy Robinson needs to buy Mike Blair a rule book to let him know that kicking the ball into touch from the kick off ends the game if it occurs after the 80 minutes are up! If in doubt Blair should at least have been asking the referee the question!
For the first 73 minutes Scotland played outstandingly well and they looked like they had done enough until they were let down by their own indiscipline. It is impossible to argue with either penalty awarded against Scotland or the yellow cards but it had a huge effect on the result. Until then Scotland had won the battle of the contact areas and had succeeded in nullifying the Welsh backline threat. The lesson clearly is you have to play the full 80 minutes.
]]> Wales will be very relieved. They played very well in the last few minutes, buoyed on by knowing Scotland were a man, and then two men down, but they will know they were fortunate. Perhaps they are finally waking up in this tournament. As for Andy Powell 's post match antics with the golf buggy escapade he seems to have been unlucky to have met the only Scottish policeman working on that stretch of the M4 that night!In the France versus Ireland game both sides began well and were looking dangerous but the difference was that France put points on the board. The French defence was excellent and nullified the usually strong Irish attack and as Ireland began to chase the game they made a lot of uncharacteristic mistakes. The French continued to extend their lead in clinical fashion. It was in the end a below par performance from the Irish and an impressive win from the French.
In terms of the Flannery incident, in some regards the challenge was far worse than those made by the Scots at the end of their game and there was no yellow card but of course it was not sighted. It looked a very strange challenge and certainly not within the spirit of the game. He will serve his ban accordingly.
With regards to England versus Italy a lot of abuse and criticism has subsequently been slung at England, deservedly as it was certainly a dire game to watch. What was strange was the lack of honesty from England afterwards. It is okay to say it was a poor game but at least we won but Steve Borthwick in the aftermath suggested it was a pretty good performance. True there were a couple of exciting moments when England spread the ball wide and for a moment looked dangerous but these were few and far between. The kicking option was taken first and almost always but it was not even particularly good kicking. Perhaps if Jonny had taken his penalty chances and the score line had widened then the game may well have opened up more as Italy would have had to thrown caution to the wind to chase the game. This would in turn have created gaps and opportunities for England but this didn't happen and in the end the Italians were unlucky.
Looking ahead, the France Wales game has the makings of a classic. The French have already played two good matches and after a slow start the Welsh seem to have at last got going as well as having home advantage. The French usually lose focus and under perform in at least one Six Nations match so Lievremont will be driving into the players that the Welsh can cause them problems. However, I think the French will ultimately have just too much for Wales. I also think teams have started to work out the Welsh and how to defend against them better than in the last few years and I think the Welsh team will need to be willing to adjust their game plan if necessary in order to win the match.
England versus Ireland sees England keeping faith with a side which has won two games without playing well. That is a good position to be in but it is crunch time now. The Irish will bounce back and they have some hardened, experienced players who are more than capable of coming to Twickenham and getting a victory. England may have the home advantage but I don't expect them to quite step up the gear they will need to if they are to beat the Irish.
The Scotland versus Italy match is a must-win for both teams as the wooden spoon beckons for the loser. There has been good improvement in the consistency of Scottish play since Andy Robinson took over. Italy however will have targeted Scotland at home as a match they can win at the start of the tournament and especially now with the injuries Scotland have to key players Chris Paterson, Thom Evans and Rory Lamont. If Scotland play with the same intensity and are sensible and play territory, taking their chances rather than trying to run the ball from under the posts in the first five minutes then I expect them to win. It won't be easy but I think Scotland will win by a score despite missing Paterson, their ever-reliable goal kicker.
]]>Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
Another visit to Paris, another drubbing. We weren't good and made too many mistakes and they were close to being top notch. Arguably, we had the better of a pretty even first 20 minutes and had the bounce of the ball been kinder to Gordon Darcy or Jerry Flannery not done an outstanding impersonation of Chopper Harris, then things might have been different. Hands up though, on the day we were outclassed and have to move on to Twickenham.
]]> England played like a team who, quite simply, are overcoached. Nothing, but nothing, was spontaneous and even the decent breaks by Cueto and Flutey were pretty standard training paddock moves. Good job they had Johnny there to kick the points...oops! However, I still have a nagging feeling that they have the potential to be a talented outfit when things click - let's hope they keep that big performance for Paris.Oh the joy of Wales v Scotland. Keen blog readers will recall it's my favourite fixture and this year's was a classic. Thirteen year old Olivia Erwin is now hooked for life on the Six Nations and Shane Williams for President I say. The man is a genius and, to my mind, one of only two players who played what they saw on the pitch in the last round of matches (the other one is Darcy). Best wishes, of course, to Thom Evans as he recovers from what was a salutary reminder of the danger of the physicality in the current game.
So onto this weekend:
• To Cardiff on Friday night with the screaming crowd, the Brains bitter and the golf buggies. Heaven only knows what Andy Powell might get up to when the Ryder Cup hits his native land. Thoroughly enjoyed Micky Burton's case for the defence for Powell - don't know if you saw it but according to MB, our Andy had made it to bed just before midnight ahead of his early morning escapade... Think the French will prove too strong with the Welsh pack probably being outclassed. Could be very exciting if King Shane gets some possession but on balance, the French are probably too good.
• Moving onto Twickenham, you need to be careful what you wish for. I wished for Martin J to pick the same team as Italy - especially Johnny W at 10 - and for Kidney to go bold with Sexton. Blow me, he's done it and I hope we don't live to regret it. Ireland haven't become a bad team overnight and I think we can take it - hope so since the Erwins snr. are over for the match, my Mother for the first time since 1960! Let's hope we don't sit too close to Twickenham braying donkey brigade!
• Italy v Scotland could well be the first 0-0 in living memory. I actually think Andy Robinson's boys will have enough motivation on a number of counts to get them over the line. They would deserve that after Cardiff.
Great to have it back - what price three away wins on the weekend?
Looking back at last week's blog postings nobody got too much wrong and only then when they followed their allegiances, Wales unfortunately did not beat England and a Scotland win did not quite materialise.4
The Irish won as expected but will be disappointed that they did not capitalise on first half domination with some tries. However, the Italians have great spirit and that showed in the second-half in the way they held out. Nick Mallet needs an 80 minute performance from them to win particularly this week. Undoubtedly the Irish will need to improve on last week's performance if they are to beat the French in Paris. As I've written before home advantage will be a huge factor in the tournament and it will be a tall order for the Irish to win at the weekend. Brian O'Driscoll will probably need a hatrick performace like in 2000 to get the result!
Unfortunately for the Scottish, a highly "focused" French team turned up at Murrayfield. The Scottish desperately missed prop forward Euan Murray and the French dominated the scrum. Few if any sides can win a match when they are under so much pressure in the scrum as it puts them completely on the back foot. France play with a 'rush' defence and the way to beat this is either turning their defence by chipping in behind or getting it wide quickly but they need to use dummy runners to commit the outside defenders which they failed to do and France's backs could then drift accross and nullify Scotland's back play. I was disappointed with Scottish back play overall. Dan Parks has come in now at number 10 ahead of Phil Godman and will clearly provide more of a kicking game against Wales at the weekend.
]]> Welsh aspirations for a win against England on Saturday were not helped by the late pull out of players in the front row as well as Alun Wyn Jones's moment of "stupidity". It was not a great performance from England but they will be pleased with a win and the potential of more to come from their backline. They didn't really create the space in the backs they wanted out wide and they will hope that bringing Flutey back in will lead to improved play against Italy. England scored more from broken play and on a positive note Danny Care took the right options and his sniping was effective with the support runners being there to finish tries off.Looking to the Wales/Scotland game in Cardiff at the weekend, England put Wales under a lot of pressure at the line out and while there is no one in the Scottish line-out as adept as Scott Murray used to be at exploiting weaknesses here, Scotland will surely need to target this area. That said Wales are bound to step up this part of their game on Saturday. Euan Murray will come back to shore up the Scottish scrum but it will be hard work, with Wales strong favourites playing at the Millennium Stadium. Scotland will fancy they can gain parity with Wales in the pack but i sadly i think the Welsh have more firepower in the backs and it is from here that they should win the match.
With regards to the France Ireland game, you never know with the French how they will perform on the day but they look very focused and Lievremont appears to be settling on a fixed team as the World Cup nears. Only two players, the wingers, have been changed and only because of injury. I think they are likely to win at home.
When it comes to Italy versus England in Rome it is a big call for Italy to beat England, but if England try and throw the ball wide early before establishing themselves firmly on the scoreboard then there could be an upset. I think you will see a conservative England performance with Wilkinson kicking them into a lead before they try anything particularly creative. I predict an England win, but it won't be pretty.
]]>It is great to have things underway and, with the notable exception of an overly patriotic Welshman, my fellow bloggers pretty much called it right on the first weekend.
What have we learned so far? Here's my top 10 from the first weekend:
]]> 1. For the first 40 minutes at Croke Park, it looked as though the Italians had been coached by Timmy Mallett, not Nick. Couldn't work out what they were doing slowing everything down but, to be fair, it seemed to work in the end.2. Ireland started OK but, let's be honest, weren't great. I spent most of the second half looking away but we won and there were no big injury issues. Job done.
3. Ireland's "world class" back 3 were average and Rob Kearney is human after all. It didn't happen for Trimble and it is no great surprise that Keith Earls has been brought in for Saturday - it's a long time since we have been able to draft in a Lion as a replacement.
4. Ireland missed Ferris but the beast is back - watch him go on Saturday.
5. England v Wales was a pretty dodgy affair for 35 minutes until Alan Wyn Jones had his Homer Simpson moment. Think you might see him put in a pretty big shift on Saturday.
6. England are probably a better team than most Celts are prepared to admit but still aren't exactly fluid. As a neutral (well sort of), I'm not wholly convinced about the man at 10 but it's heresy to even think it!
7. Highlight from Twickenham - well worth a watch on the replay - was Toby Flood's schizophrenic shepherding of James Haskell to the line for the winning try. It went from "he's my best mate, what a good lad" to "put the ruddy ball down, you complete pillock" in about two seconds as they crossed the whitewash - priceless.
8. Mainland groundsmen seem to have had a shocker. I know it has been a harsh winter but it can't have been that different in Dublin (perfect pitch if in truth a bit big) to London or Edinburgh (both shockers even if they are the right size).
9. France were disappointingly good and Scotland weren't too bad. Paterson just doesn't miss and is a dangerous kicker who will win close games for Scotland even if he does nearly decapitate himself with his left hand every time he kicks. Bastareaud - William Gallas' cousin by the way - was good, but I genuinely believe that BOD and Darcy will ask him a lot more defensive questions this weekend.
10. The 6 Nations seems to be going to form and Paris at teatime on Saturday is massive. If our boys upfront can hold their own (tight five especially) I think we have a great chance. We are underdogs - psychologically critical for the Irish - and I am really hopeful.
As to the others, Wales v Scotland (always my favourite match for some reason) should be OK for the home team and I think Shane Williams will get amongst the tries again. England will have too much for the Italians in Rome which could set up a great Anglo-Irish battle next time.
What a disaster last Saturday turned out to be, although the omens were not good after a defeat at my early morning squash match... again a match the Welsh shouldn't have lost!
Turning back to the rugby, the Welsh arrived at Twickenham full of confidence and promise, and were further encouraged after seeing the English team arrive on the pitch looking like they'd been dressed by Roger Federer's personal shopper.
Unfortunately for the Welsh contingent this was as good as it got! After England took the early lead, Wales displayed an inept ability to kick a penalty, which saw them pass up the chance to put points on the board and recapture the early advantage. Notwithstanding that we remained hopeful.
Then came the moment of madness that 'turned the game'. For some inexplicable reason, Wyn Jones decided to deliberately trip Hartley, and was rightly shown the yellow card. During his absence from the field England scored two tries and effectively sealed the game.